Over the long term, iPhone users have been keeping their devices for longer periods. Since CIRP started tracking this data in 2014, the holding period has generally increased, with the exception of the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021.
However, in the latest quarter, there’s been a slight shift in this pattern. More iPhone buyers have been trading in “younger” phones. Specifically, in the December 2024 quarter, 36% of buyers had used their previous iPhone for two years or less, up from 31% in the December 2023 quarter.
Michael Levin and Josh Lowitz for CIRP:
Conversely, slightly fewer buyers had a phone for three years or more (33%) or for two to three years (30%) compared to 2023. The shift from 2023 to 2024 was divided evenly between these two categories. Now, the ownership pattern for a previous phone almost exactly matches that in 2020.
What accounts for the recent shift? A range of factors may help explain it, including ongoing deals from carriers and continuing incentives to upgrade a previous phone around two years after it was purchased, even for those with longer installment purchase agreements.
The weakness in Apple’s recent sales results may suggest a shift in who has bought new phones lately, too. If iPhone sales are slowing, the active iPhone buyers are likely the most dedicated iPhone owners, and presumably they are more likely to upgrade more quickly. The slower upgraders may be sitting on their hands – and their old iPhones – even longer. At some point the currently happy owners of older iPhones will finally need to upgrade or will be persuaded by a must-have feature improvement or purchase offer, and then we expect the average age of retiring iPhones to begin to increase once again.
MacDailyNews Take: Apple Intelligence marketing may also be playing a role in driving iPhone upgrades. Only iPhone 15 Pro models and later are Apple Intelligence-capable.
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Not me… I’ll be using my A15 iPhone SE3 (2022) as long as possible, and not buying the rumored bigger iPhone SE4. But my SE3 was a surprise; I expected it to be a specs refresh of iPhone XR, not the 3rd continuation of the reliable iPhone 7 design. So maybe another SE refresh that lets me keep using the same case. THEN, I’ll upgrade my “young” SE3 to SE4. The A15 in SE3 is still quite capable, the current base iPad has A14. My expection is for SE4 to be based on iPhone 14 (still in lineup), upgraded to A18 and USB-C, starting at $549. AND current SE3 says in lineup (starting at $399) to cover the need for a smaller lower-price iPhone choice.