With Apple shares up 38% from their April lows, a UBS analyst claimed investors’ “optimism is misplaced,” as an iPhone supercycle may not materialize.
UBS analyst David Vogt isn’t buying the artificial-intelligence euphoria around Apple Inc. that has sent its stock up 38% from its April lows.
“Following WWDC, confidence in an iPhone ‘AI supercycle’ in [fiscal 2025] has reached a fever pitch,” he wrote, noting that “the most optimistic scenarios” imply the prospect of more than 250 million iPhone unit sales next fiscal year, and some estimates run upwards of 260 million.
But Vogt said the “optimism is misplaced,” as he doubts Apple AAPL will see an iPhone “supercycle.”
“Our analysis of smartphone demand by region, prior cycles, income demographic data and carrier subsidies argues for a more modest cycle next year,” he wrote. “Therefore, we forecast iPhone revenue growth of 2.4%, roughly 400 [basis points] below consensus and almost 1,000 [basis points] below the rosiest forecasts.”
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MacDailyNews Take: Vogt has a neutral rating and $190 target price on Apple’s stock – currently some $40 below the stock’s actual price – and has been iCal’ed for future use.
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if he were any good, he would not be working for a living.
Almost every year someone is talking about an iPhone supercycle happening and it never does. Apple might get an iPhone sales boost but a supercycle will never happen. That’s just pump-and-dump talk. Apple longs should simply settle for some increased sales and be happy with that. I certainly will be. Best of luck to all Apple-longs for the coming quarterly earnings report.
The ‘Supercycle’ has nothing to do with AI. It about clueless being booted out of the presidential race by all the ‘friends’ who have been saying ‘we are with Joe’ 48 hours ago and who now are mercifully stabbing him in the back and undermining his farce of a campaign. Looks like they won’t let him ‘Make Senility Great Again’, and thus the market has been and will continue to rally. \
Could be accelerated with one more tumble down the stairs onto Air Force One, or maybe even a fake claim of COVID, who knows, who cares. Hang onto your Apple stock and do nothing. This analist is just another clown making guesses and soon to be turned into another fool