TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is warning that Apple Vision Pro shipment growth may be below what the market expects.
Based on some component suppliers’ maximum production capacity estimates, Vision Pro shipments in 2024 will be at most 400,000–600,000 units, which is less than the market expectation of more than 1 million units.
Apple may have canceled the low-cost Vision Pro version plan (with market consensus expecting a 2025 launch). Unless Apple significantly reduces the price of Vision Pro, the anticipated significant shipment growth in Vision Pro shipments starting in 2025 may not materialize.
The Vision Pro 2 could enter mass production by 1H27 at the latest, suggesting there may be no hardware updates for the Vision Pro in the coming years.
From a technical point of view, I believe that the Vision Pro will undoubtedly provide users with an excellent experience. However, the question is why users need this product. The Vision Pro may take longer than the market expects to become the next star product of the iPhone.
MacDailyNews Take: “The question is why users need this product.”
“The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a ‘mouse.’ There is no evidence that people want to use these things.” — John C. Dvorak, bloated gasbag, San Francisco Examiner, February 19, 1984
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