Apple to use metalens tech in AR smartglasses; expected launch as early as 2026 – Ming-Chi Kuo

Apple will extensively use metalens in its AR smartglasses (not AR/MR headsets) which will go to mass production in 2026 at the earliest, according to TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Ming-Chi Kuo via Medium:

1. The supply chain is anticipated to start mass production of Apple’s metalens in 2024, which is expected to replace the iPad’s plastic lens of the Face ID Tx.
2. TSMC and VisEra are critical process suppliers for Apple’s metalens. Given metalens’ revenue and profit contributions, VisEra is the primary beneficiary.
3. Should the metalens for the iPad in 2024 successfully ships, iPhone Face ID will adopt metalens in 2025 or 2026 (the latter is more likely at present).
4. Metalens offers the advantages of lower cost and reduced height vs. existing plastic lenses.
5. Technically speaking, after Face ID Tx, metalens could replace current plastic lens applications in Face ID Rx or ToF Tx/Rx in the short term.
6. Factoring in the manufacturing process and algorithm progress, the earliest metalens could replace the lowest-end plastic lenses in existing cameras would be between 2028 and 2030. Metalens will not have any foreseeable impacts on the trend of existing plastic lens specification upgrades (e.g., upgrade from 7P to 8P, periscope, etc.). However, investors should be aware that over the next few years, metalens will gradually replace existing plastic lenses in 3D sensing applications.
7. Apple’s metalens development has three long-term strategic goals: (1) reduce reliance on existing plastic lenses; (2) leverage metalens’ technological and cost advantages for product design and sales; and (3) facilitate the extensive use of metalens in Apple Glasses (not AR/MR headsets) whcih will go to mass production in 2026 or 2027 at the earliest.
8. Glasses-type head-mounted display devices are the killer application for metalens. If glasses-type head-mounted display devices achieve success, metalens shipments can experience explosive growth.
9. Goertek is currently the global leader in metalens module and lamination/bonding mass production technology. If Apple can drive the trend of metalens applications, Goertek will be among the primary beneficiaries of this trend.

MacDailyNews Take: Metalenses are tiny optical elements fashioned with metamaterials* that can manipulate electromagnetic waves (light), but are significantly thinner than traditional lenses.

*A metamaterial is any material engineered to have a property that is not found in naturally occurring materials.

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