Political worries rattle the stock market

Political worries about Georgia’s Senate runoff election Tuesday helped fuel a sharp New Year’s stock market selloff on Monday. Analysts say there may be a bigger sell-off if Democrats win than if Republicans prevail.

stock chartPatti Domm for CNBC:

Apprehension about Georgia’s Senate runoff election Tuesday helped fuel a sharp New Year’s selloff, and politics could continue to unhinge the stock market even after the outcome is known… The runoff for two Senate seats is the final determinant of the 2020 election, and at stake is control of the U.S. Senate. Wall Street has widely expected at least one Republican would win, keeping the GOP in control.

Stocks traded sharply lower on the first trading day of the year, with the S&P 500 and Dow hitting a new record high in early trading before falling sharply.

Traders said there were multiple causes for selling, including concerns about the pandemic, with new shutdowns in the U.K. and the slow distribution of the vaccine in the U.S., as well as political risk and a growing concern Democrats could win in Georgia… The worry for the stock market is that if the two Senate seats are taken by Democrats, each party would have 50 seats but Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would cast the tie vote after she takes office. Biden would then be able to press more of his agenda, including capital gains and corporate tax increases.

“I think the market has priced in the fact that at least one of these two seats is going to a Republican,” Cowen CEO Jeffrey Solomon said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “The market definitely likes it where the executive branch and legislative branch are not in the same camp. If it turns out we get two Democrats elected, we’re likely to see some reaction to that…”

“In the event of a Democrat sweep, we would expect a powerful internal market rotation as investors reprice for a high fiscal/some taxes/more green/more regulation outcome than Biden with divided government, with the market likely down on net overall on the day,” the Evercore analysts wrote.

MacDailyNews Take: The market loves gridlock because the market hates uncertainty. Gridlock is much more predictable.

As we wrote back in 2018:

With a U.S. federal government several orders of magnitude larger than any founding father’s worst nightmare, anything that locks it in place, even temporarily, is a Good Thing™.


  1. I love the dim-bulb reactions to this. Apparently stock traders just today noticed that Biden won the presidency and are reacting to that just now. Traders react to what is good for traders – they don’t care what is good for the country.

    The big news today was the new Trump tape – maybe they are reacting to a president who would have no ethical problem with staging a coup.

    1. …and wasn’t last Friday a “Buy point” for Apple?

      Gridlock might be good for the stock market, but it is bad for the country. Cons think that wall street IS the country, because that is where their money comes from. That is why they are so happy to delegitimize elections any chance they get. (Yes, Al Gore had a far stronger case then any of the BS that Fox and Trump are peddling.)

    2. The market has factored in the President’s authoritarian streak for years. The shocker is that nearly half of Republican House members and a third of Republican Senators are publicly supporting the coup attempt. The hallmark of non-dictatorial countries has always been our peaceful transitions of power. The failure of checks and balances from federalism and the separation of powers is deeply disturbing for the prospect of domestic tranquility, which is the top priority of our constitution and the republic it governs.

  2. “Some counties had 120% turnout.”

    This has never been addressed by a judge, because it is such a transparent lie that no Trump lawyer has ever been willing to submit the claim! Cons produced that number by comparing voter turnout to a record of registrations FROM SIX MONTHS EARLIER. It doesn’t NEED to make sense because the claim is aimed at FOX, not anyone who cares what is true and what isn’t.

  3. If you didn’t get your fill of malaise under 8 years of Oblahblah, let try it with a corrupt, China-owned dementia puppet controlled by socialist Headboard Harris.

    Still can’t wait for the mid-terms!

    1. Get over your butt hurt, Fwhatever. Your team had its four years to mess everything up, and the country is suffering from the dementia and egomania of Trump and his profiteering and corrupt enablers in the Senate and House. But you lost, despite all of your promises and boasts.

      By the way, 159.7M people voted in the election. I called 160M and a Biden win. I was right. You were wrong (like always). Let that fester for a few years.

    2. Oblahblah, Headboard Harris, Dementia Joe……you stay up all night thinking those up? Perhaps the time would have been better spent worrying about Trump coming across as being unhinge or worry that some senators are saying screw the voters, screw the state legislators and screw the constitution, we want to keep our jobs and power.
      What is the point of having a constitution if you prefer to allow these people to turn it into a worthless piece of paper? Of the sacrifice of some many soldiers over the years to protect it? What is wrong with you? America was great until Trump and his butt kissers have eroded its world stature over 4 years.
      Time before a return to sanity…..15 days. Not soon enough.

  4. When the Democratic Party objected to electors from past elections and they have, recently. It was said that that was their Constitutional Right to safe guard America and election integrity. When the Republicans attempt to do the same. It is a coup. Which is funny, coming from a party and a cabal of degenerates that have tried for four years to get Trump on fraudulant claims that they themselves were complicit and guilty of. Then there is the Masturbating Media, where the ladies put down their dildos and the gents dropped their cucks, who collectively got off their sorry ass and raced down to Florida to pull Al Gore across the finish line in 2000, but alas, the media didn’t have anymore tricks up their sleeve and had to admit ‘W’ had the votes. Now, we have an even worse Masturbating Media that has exposed themselves for the jerk-offs they truly are by turning a blind eye on investigative reporting on what is clear for all to see. The same goes for a lot more hot mess running the gamut in this whole damn process. ISIS runs a free and fairer election then America. But I don’t know what is worse. The Masturbating Media or the Premature Ejaculation they spawned as evidence by posts all across the web.

    1. In 2000, the Gore Campaign submitted actual evidence to the courts showing that a recount was likely to alter the outcome. They won almost every lawsuit at the district and appellate court level until the US Supreme Court reversed the judgment of the Florida Supreme Court, giving Bush the victory by 517 votes and Gore the opportunity to gracefully concede.

      In 2020, the Trump Campaign has failed to submit credible evidence to the courts that might alter the outcome. Well over 100 judges, most of them Republican and many Trump appointees, have poured out more than fifty lawsuits by unanimous opinions. The Supreme Court has ruled and Biden has > 10,000 vote margins in enough states for 308 certified electoral votes, yet Trump will not concede but continues to seek “nonjudicial remedies” (to be kind).

      Not at all comparable.

      1. The perpetrators of the election treason will be held accountable. Corrupt judges, politicians (Dems and Repubs alike), election officials and other assorted scumbags will get what’s coming to them.

          1. At least Putin and Orban have their sh!t together. They can’t ever lose. Trump had four years to get his autocracy in place, FOUR years, and he didn’t achieve it. Such a loser! Nah, Putin and Orban have their act together. Trump can learn much from them. All Trump does is imitate. Surface level stuff. But to become an autocrat, you have to BE an autocrat. Trump doesn’t understand that. Ugh. We had a chance to finally have a dictator, and then he ruins it for us all. Trump is so stupid. But we can dream that someone else will rise to the occasion and it will be a glorious day. Just kidding! Not.

    2. The two situations are not even close to being the same, which you would know if you listened to anything other that Fox News and far right propaganda machines. Biden, for instance, shut that crap down in 2016 after a FEW misguided Democrats protested. But now you have well over a hundred GOP House members ranting and raving along with 12 Senators — over total BS. If you cannot separate fact from fiction, then you are dooming this country.

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