Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi — you know, the “analyst” who couldn’t find Apple’s “missing” iPhones on his first try — is back for more, claiming that Apple TV+ is “failing to resonate.”
Ryan Vlastelica for Bloomberg:
Analyst Toni Sacconaghi estimated that fewer than 10 million consumers had opted for their free 12-month trial of Apple TV+, citing an analysis of the company’s first-quarter results. This equates to 10% or fewer of eligible customers, he wrote, a take rate he called “surprisingly low.” Apple hasn’t disclosed subscriber numbers for the TV+ service.
Sacconaghi speculated that Apple TV+ may be “failing to resonate with customers, perhaps due to its limited content offerings.”
MacDailyNews Take: “Estimated.” “Speculates.” “Perhaps.”
Bernstein suggested other reasons why Apple TV+ may not have caught on in terms of subscribers. It could be that Apple “hasn’t been able to effectively promote TV+,” Sacconaghi wrote, encouraging the company “to more directly leverage its 1.5B device installed base.”
MacDailyNews Take: Because Apple needs marketing advice from a guy who “lost” well over million+ iPhones in his “math.”
In any case, he added, investors should “closely monitor the adoption of TV+ going forward,” as the take rate will “provide some indication of potential acceptance of the service, as well as Apple’s ability to successfully launch meaningful new revenue-generating services.”
MacDailyNews Take: We don’t think Toni is so good at basic math, much less extrapolation. In other words, he’s the perfect Churn Merchant™. Toni is “surprised” at his results because he’s likely quite wrong, as usual.
Late last month, The Wall Street Journal reported via sidebar graphic on “Q4 2019 U.S. customer base by service,” (source: Ampere Analysis) that showed:
• Netflix: 61.3 million
• Amazon Prime Video: 42.2 million
• Apple TV+: 33.6 million
• Hulu: 31.8 million
• Disney+: 23.2 million
Launch dates:
• Amazon Prime Video: September 2006 (Amazon Unbox)
• Netflix: February 2007 (streaming)
• Hulu: March 2008
• Apple TV+: November 1, 2019
• Disney+: November 13, 2019