The triumph of Apple’s walled garden

Horace Dediu for Asymco:

During 2016 Apple services revenues were $25.6 billion… If, as has been the case during 2017 and 2018, Apple were to maintain 30% growth in Services during the rest of this year they will have revenues of $51 billion in 2019; reaching the doubling tarted a year sooner than predicted.

Apple will have doubled Services in 3 years to a level equivalent to a Fortune 63 company (right behind Goldman Sachs).

Keep in mind that the reported revenues are not billings or what consumers actually spend. That figure is at a run rate of over $71 billion… A garden is lovely after all. The walls are there to keep danger and chaos away as much as to keep you in it. The constraints simplify as much as they restrict. Though it may be contrary to some modular and interoperable utopias which paralyze with choice, we might well be experiencing a triumph of the walled garden.

MacDailyNews Take: Lock us up and throw away the key; we know Eden when we see it!


    1. There are people who disdain a curated experience, preferring to prowl and explore on their own. They tend not to employ guides and porters on safari, trusting their own instincts (and disliking the custom of tipping). They tend to see others as gullible tourists easily separated from their money. And they view entrepreneurs as manipulators, only in it for the money, whose carefully articulated concern for their clients’ safety is shallow marketing hype. People like this seem to proliferate on the internet, where the jaws of the lion and the horn of the rhinoceros are abstract dangers.

  1. That walled garden doesn’t seem to be helping raise Apple’s P/E. It seems to me as though that walled garden is basically limiting market share percentage or in other words, impeding growth. It’s just a guess, though. No matter what Apple tries to do doesn’t seem to have a positive impact on the P/E while other major tech companies don’t seem to have that problem. Limited market share percentage must spook investors from having higher confidence in Apple.

    What’s rather amusing is how Nokia had such high market share percentage yet still collapsed in a heap, so having that high market share percentage doesn’t guarantee long-term success of a company. Same with RIM and the BlackBerry. Massive smartphone market share and then sayonara. Apple appears to be thriving with low market share percentage but that’s not enough to make big investors comfortable. If investors honestly think Apple can come up with some radical new product to create massive value, then I think they’re reaching for straws. Walled gardens are nice and safe but it’s likely difficult to expand those walls. It’s much easier to expand with no walls at all, such as the case with Android. Spreading just like a weed with no boundaries or restraints.

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.