MacDailyNews presents live notes from Apple’s Q119 conference call

MacDailyNews presents live notes from Apple’s Q119 Conference Call with analysts starting at 5pm ET/2pm PT today.

Apple will provide live audio streaming of its Q119 Results Conference Call using Apple’s industry-leading QuickTime multimedia software.

The live webcast will begin at 2pm PT/ 5pm ET today here.

The company posted quarterly revenue of $84.3 billion, a decline of 5% from the year-ago quarter, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $4.18, up 7.5%. International sales accounted for 62% of the quarter’s revenue.

For Q119, Apple guided for revenue revenue between $55 billion and $59 billion.

Live notes from Apple’s Q119 Conference Call in reverse chronological order:

• AAPL after hours: $163.15, +$8.47 (+5.48%) @ 6:03PM EST

• End of call.
• When Apple sells a product, they estimate value of free services (Maps, Siri) and that value has been reclassified under Services; cost to provide is also included in Services
• Cook: We will participate in original content market; we’ll have something more to say about that in the future
• Apple will participate in that via Apple TV, AirPlay 2, and via third-party video apps on Apple’s App Stores
• We see huge changes in customer behavior and expect it to accelerate this year due to the breakdown of the cable bundle

• Apple’s services business is a broad portfolio
• Service gross margins increased sequentially by 170 basis points. Business is growing nicely

• iPhone upgrades for Q119 were less than Apple expected to to currency headwinds, lack of subsidies
• iPhone upgrade cycle has extended, there’s no doubt about that
• Cook: We design our products to last as long as possible
• Apple expects to grow revenue nice from the rest of their business
• Strong U.S. dollar, subsidies, etc. will affect iPhone is Q219 as well
• Apple’s iPhone channel inventory typically increases in Q1 and decreases in Q2 and that will be the case this year, too

• iPhone XR is most popular, followed by iPhone XS Max, and then iPhone XS
• Q119 faced a difficult compare vs Q118 due to release dates of new iPhones

• Cook on iPhone price elasticity: In the U.S. there was actually a very small difference on iPhone pricing, but foreign exchange affected prices, due to strong U.S. dollar, especially in emerging markets. Price is a factor. Subsidy is a bigger issue in developed markets. If you’re a customer who’s last purchase was an iPhone 6, 6S, or even a 7, the full unsubsidized price may delay purchase

• Apple is optimistic for their future and their share repurchase program reflects that
• Roughly 30% of Apple’s services business is outside of the U.S. and subject to currency headwinds
• Maestri: Apple wants to double size of services from 2016 to 2020 and Apple is on track to do so. Apple’s installed base is growing very nicely and not dependent on what Apple’s sold in the last 90-day period. Subscriptions are becoming a very large portion of Apple’s business (to surpass 500 million subscribers in 2020). This is an “incredible, staggering number.” We are also looking to launch new services in the future and are very excited about what’s coming

• Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2019 second quarter:
– revenue between $55 billion and $59 billion
– gross margin between 37 percent and 38 percent
– operating expenses between $8.5 billion and $8.6 billion
– other income/(expense) of $300 million
– tax rate of approximately 17 percent
• Apple continues to face currency headwinds due to strong U.S. dollar

• AAPL after hours: $164.13, +$9.38, (+6.06%) @ 5:36PM EST

• For example, new iOS apps for enterprise are identifying construction errors
• iOS is taking the enterprise by storm
• Apple’s wearables business is approaching the size of a Fortune 200 company (YKBAWID)
• Wearables, home and accessories grew over $1.8 billion, thanks to amazing popularity of Apple Watch and AirPods
• Half of iPad buyers in Q119 were new to iPad
• Installed base of iPad reached a new all-time high
• Half of Mac buyers in Q119 were new to Mac
• Strong response to new MacBook Air and Mac mini
• 9% increase in Mac revenue YOY
• Apple expects paid subscriptions will cross 500 million mark in 2020
• The dividend is payable on February 14, 2019 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 11, 2019
• Apple’s board of directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.73 per share of the Company’s common stock
• Very strong operating cash flow of $26.7 billion
• Best quarter ever for Services (pounding analysts over the head until they get it)
• U.S. iPhone customer sat: 99% for iPhone XR, XS, and XS Max

• Segment revenue:
– iPhone: $51.982B vs. $61.104B YOY
– Mac: $7.416B vs. $6.824B YOY
– iPad: $6.729B vs. $5.755B YOY
– Wearables, Home and Accessories: $7.308 vs. $5.481 YOY
– Services: $10.875B vs. $9.129B YOY
• Total net sales: $84.310B vs. $88.293B YOY

• Best quarter ever for Mac
• 62.9% gross margin for services
• 34.3% gross margin for products
• Luca Maestri: New all-time revenue records in U.S., Canada, South Korea, and elsewhere

• Apple has “exciting announcements coming later this year”
• Apple working on rolling out payment programs for iPhones to more geographies
• iPhone trade-ins are great for the customer and for the environment and for growing Apple’s active installed base
• Cook: Innovation and privacy can go hand-in-hand (no mention of Group FaceTime debacle)
• Apple has just begun to scratch the surface of health
• Apple Watch has dramatically changed and even saved many users’ lives

• Best quarter ever for wearables including Apple Watch and AirPods
• iPad revenue up 17%, highest growth rate in nearly 6 years
• Mac revenue up 9% in Q119. Best Mac quarterly revenue ever

• Apple services: Over $41 billion in calendar 2018
• Apple is very happy with the growth and breadth
• ComScore: Apple News has the largest audience of all News apps
• Apple News readership set a new record with 85 million active readers
• Apple Pay in Germany had more transactions at Deutsche Bank in one week than Android transactions for the entire year
• Apple Pay had over 1.8 billion transactions in Q119, well over 2X YOY
• Apple generated highest quarterly music revenue ever, now with over 50 million paid subscribers
• Installed base was 1.3 billion as of Jan 2018 and has grown to 1.4 billion by end of December 2018
• iPhone decline: Apple’s $29 battery replacement program which impacted new iPhone sales
• iPhone decline: iPhone subsidies are becoming increasingly less common
• iPhone decline: Strength of U.S. dollar has made Apple products more expensive in other parts of the world
• Outside of iPhone, Apple’s business grew 19% YOY
• iPhone replacement cycle is lengthening

• AAPL after hours: $162.58, +$7.90, (+5.11%) @ 5:13PM EST

• iPhone XR, XS, and XS Max are, by far, the best iPhones Apple has ever shipped
• Revenue from China grew slightly for the full calendar year
• Record services revenue were generated in China in the quarter
• Apple believes China business has a bright future
• Greater China was significantly down YOY
• Apple posted quarterly revenue of $84.3 billion, a decline of 5 percent from the year-ago quarter, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $4.18, up 7.5 percent.
• Conference call begins 8 minutes late (maybe they were planning on using Group FaceTime)

• AAPL after hours: $160.74, +$6.00, (+3.88%) @ 5:07PM EST

• Cook usually delivers conference calls on-time, at least 🙂
• Conference call is getting an uncharacteristically late start today…

• AAPL after hours: $160.20, +$5.57, (+3.60%) @ 5:02PM EST

• Apple’s overall gross margin was 38% for the quarter
• As per CNBC, Analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets had predicted a 59% services gross margin for the quarter in a note distributed to clients last week
• Apple’s Q119 services unit had a massive 62.8% gross margin
• Apple Inc. now has $245 billion cash on hand, 3% more than last quarter’s reported $237.1 billion

• AAPL after hours: $161.20, +$5.83, (+3.77%) @ 4:53PM EST
• AAPL after hours: $160.26, +$5.83, (+3.77%) @ 4:47PM EST
• AAPL after hours: $159.21, +$4.65, (+3.01%) @ 4:40PM EST

7 Comments

  1. For as many quarters as I can remember, Apple has reported record revenues and profits–then the stock price goes down.

    Now Apple reports its first revenue decline in years, and the stock goes up.

    1. Haha…😆

      Well not exactly if u take into account that it dopped 30% prior to earnings.
      We are still quite a bit down from a few months ago.. but hopefully inching all the way back and then some !

  2. “Best quarter ever for Services”
    “Free services (Maps, Siri) and that value has been reclassified under Services”

    Well hey, here’s a quick recipe for increasing Service numbers in a quarter when iPhone sales are down anyway. Divert a bunch of the phone sale revenue & classify it as service revenue. Who’s even gonna notice? These accountants are sharp.

    At least they can say they reported the change.

    1. Yeah, I noticed this too.

      And in addition to ‘Services’ having the potential to be a tax avoidance strategy, it is also a means to hide the risk of just how invested Apple is on the iPhone ecosystem.

      For example, if ~half of the Services revenue came from iPhone revenue being skimmed by 10% (approx $5.8B), then instead of the iPhone hardware sales number looking like it currently does:

      ($52B/$84.3B) = 61.7% of Apple

      …then the unmasked original iPhone hardware sales number is more like:

      (($52B/.9)/$84.3B) = 68.5% of Apple

      The ramifications are that Apple is slanted even higher into being a “one hit wonder” (iPhone) company than people may realize.

  3. Sooo…a hardware sale’s value is reduced by Apple’s claimed value of services on that hardware, which is then given as “sales revenue” on the Services accounting line.

    Interesting, particularly since no one outside of Apple knows what the claimed value number is, not has it been determined by the market.

    Now here’s an idea: move those “Services” offshore to a country with lower tax rates … see where I’m going with this?

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