What to expect from Apple’s earnings

“Apple Inc. once a market leader, has fallen about 30% since its peak in October, more than triple the decline of the S&P 500,” Michael Kramer writes for Investopedia. “And for good reason.”

“CEO Tim Cook essentially told investors in early January that the company’s uninterrupted revenue growth streak was over due to weakening iPhone sales,” Kramer writes. “That news has turned once bullish investors and analysts into skeptics as they look forward to the company’s fiscal first-quarter report out next week, January 29.”

Kramer writes, “As of now, analysts are forecasting revenue to fall nearly 5% in the fourth quarter to $84 billion, a dramatic reversal from a previous forecast of a 3% gain. That’s a massive 8 percentage point change. The coming fiscal year doesn’t look much better. Analysts see revenue falling by 2% to $260.5 billion this year, while earnings are expected to rise just 2%.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: The question is how much is already baked into the stock price.

Apple is scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell (right around 4:30pm Eastern) on Tuesday, January 29, 2019.

24 Comments

  1. This will be the moment of truth for Apple shareholders. After eight controversial years at the helm, Tim Cook’s insatiable greed and outright disdain for Apple and it’s consumers (both present and former) has finally come full circle.

    Wall Street is partially responsible for creating this Apple-Frankenstein-Greed Monster… but at the end of the day it’s all on Tim Cook. He has exceeded his push toward the boundaries of what the very definition of greed entails.

    1. Yet, while holding those views and beliefs you went on and invested your money in him and the company , just a 3 short months ago..at all time high, expecting quik gains.
      Who does that?!

      To me it looks like the only Frankenstuen Greed monster in this picture … is you ! …With the Abi Normal’s brian transplant…. as indicated by your vesy sane behavior…

        1. are saying you put Faith in sometging you Hate?
          Why?

          Idont think so. No quite the same as zero and alike !
          Plus i dont hear the same none stop nauseating loser rant from you.. day in and day out !

          1. yo-jim, your own rants belie the fact you are a fanboi (favor without ability to recognize, or admit any notable contrary facts).
            Just know…please, some are able to appreciate AAPL and Apple for the great company that it was, is and, hopefully will be, while simultaneously noticing and voicing viewable and likely potential deficiencies, w/o being a “loser on a nauseating rant”. Frankly, I think it’s a skill to be able to be objectively realistic (including critical), while being personally and emotionally attached. You might want to show that you practice the skill vs solely voicing the fan-rant on defense.

            1. Unfortunatly your comment about my stance comes from a perspective of VERY PARTIAL familiarity with my posts and history !
              My track record is there in these forum’s databases and if history is available , its verifiable…for anyone who would care to make an educated comment about me.

              Though some posts of mine are personal opinion based..
              Most are backed by stats and facts that can easily be verified.

              I do criticize Apple, sometimes very harshly, and have for Years and Years .
              Few years back when i was constantly criticizing Apple for their negligence of the Pro crowd.. i was being violently reacted to and was being called a troll and being asked to leave…..
              I don’t anymore as much since Apple has acknowledged and has delivered and will do more this year. Im not going to act like a stupid broken record when an issue has been acknowledged and responded to !
              Some other issues i have been criticizing Apple over the years, on-and off:
              Displays, iCloud, iOS idiosyncrasies and deliberate handicaps, dongle mess ‘clutter scatter’ not ‘clutter free’ design philosophy by Jonny, The mouse and pencil charge solution that would earn an F even at an elementary school level.. .. the igore battery case, port limitations, iMac updates, Apple TV’s stupid interface for the most part.. with each channel app being in its own universe and ineffective centralizations, etc, The gimmicky stupid touch strip on macbook pros where Apple seems to completely forget that , consistency and repeatability and familiarity are key to efficiency. Absolute Dismal Apple spell check and contextual understanding and data analytics shortcomings and AI Siri issues ( AI one of my biggest issues i still address constantly and have for a long time) .. marketing issues, PR issues ..and there is more..
              And i make myself heard not only at forums but directly at Apple too.

              Few years back when i was criticizing ..i was one of the the few lonely black sheep and i was being violently reacted to and being called a troll.
              When i praise Apple im called a fanboy. Haha !
              And i guess that is rational and objective to some, ha ?
              There is no wining.. lol

              Haters would like to label me as a fanboy as a defense mechanism for their irrational none stop rant.
              Those who only choose to see the negative and none of the immense amount of positive.

              All i hear from MOST haters is emotionally exaggerated outbursts with zero justification.
              Complaints with no suggestion as a solution….and yes, just nauseating and literally stupid whining !.

              I have no tolerance for those with absolute negative bias ..and zero objectivity of the facts.. rather fly with cooked up rhetoric and stupid rant and Fud !. None-stop !
              Imo, you should focus on those bunch’s negativity and stupidity..

              My tack record is there at any forum i participate in and can be verified by search… given that old data is still available! I have mentioned this several times before .. but the negatively biased find it very convenient to ignore/forget ….as well as other facts.

              I criticize when due and praise when due, and side with those who make sense, positive or negative, and call out those who are irrationally bashing Apple becouse of their own stupid mistakes and ignorance like Zero and alike! And many with herd mentality .

              There , now watch all these be ignored again !

      1. hey jim, you may have already mentioned this and I’m assuming what you’re going to say but anyway, what are you expecting out of Apple’s earnings today? I’ve heard concerns over sales for the fourth quarter. Thanks

  2. Analysts are forecasting 84 billion revenue….etc etc??? 😂😂.. very impressive forecast indeed !🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

    Apple revised guidances :
    Revenue of approximately $84 billion
    Gross margin of approximately 38 percent
    Operating expenses of approximately $8.7 billion
    Other income/(expense) of approximately $550 million
    Tax rate of approximately 16.5 percent before discrete items

    1. Impressive for most companies but not enough for greedy Apple investors and the news media. I hope the share price will rise, but I’m not getting my hopes up after Apple got left in the dust by the likes of Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft. A real bummer falling short of expected revenue by $5B. I hate when Apple loses a whole year of gains based on one quarter in the blink of an eye.

      I’m anxious to see what sort of mayhem Apple’s new reporting scheme will bring. I just know analysts are going to make up imagined weaker iPhone unit sales just for the hell of it to try and suppress Apple’s stock value.

  3. Maybe it’s not so much greed as it is “this is all we know how to do now.” They kept their concentration on the iPhone and China for all this time. It was a sure thing. Well now is the time to start coming up with new products and QUALITY services that span the breadth of the market.

    I’m an IT guy so I’m interested in services that let me push the Mac more into the enterprise. Enterprise clients couldn’t care less about ApplePay, music, and movies. We need quality cloud storage systems, quality backup systems, quality vertical market business packages, etc. We need the Mac, we don’t need the iPad. We need solutions for hybrid clouds. We need tools for network security, management, and monitoring. We need vastly better configuration management and mobile device management.

    Instead Apple is “deprecating” features of macOS. Why would you get rid of telnet when it is still widely used for testing communications between email servers, for instance.

    macOS server grows not stronger and more mature, but weaker with every iteration.

    To me it appears Apple has no interest in the Enterprise whatsoever and their piss poor services, don’t make the grade. I can shut down this MacBook Pro, pull the ThunderBolt cable that connects me to pretty much everything, put in my RazerBlade Pro, and plug the ThunderBolt 3 cable in and keep going.

    I just love the macOS. The MacOS is the gravity that keeps me in orbit around the Apple Spaceship.

    1. @Thelonious

      It’s been clearly apparent since Cook took over… he couldn’t give two wet shits about the Mac.

      It’s really sad also because the Mac was Jobs’ baby.

      I know this will sound strange to some, until you really think about it, but I think something happened to Tim Cook at Apple that made him hate the company. When he saw his chance to take power he did. Now I truly believe his goal is to destroy the company from within.

      And from where I’m sitting, he’s doing an excellent job.

    2. Maybe it’s not so much greed as it is “this is all we know how to do now.”

      It’s BOTH. What percentage is greater than the other is only a guess.

      But your point is WELL made and illustrates under Cook for eight years a searing INDICTMENT of the lack of creative products while distracted with the iPhone and fashionista bling products.

      May the Apple BOD have the will to replace the CEO…

      1. Lack of creative ideas or lack of what you specifically like to see Jobe?

        AppleWatch+ iterations
        Airpods, runaway hit
        ApplePay, kick ass specially with Applewatch
        Apple’s industry leading silicon and chip design!
        Health initiatives..
        to name a few.

        I guess not creative enough for brilliance like yours….

    3. Maybe it’s not so much greed as it is “this is all we know how to do now.”

      I’m afraid that it is something that you also touched on, although a bit too lightly: “Well now is the time to start coming up with new products and…”.

      What I suspect is happening is an intense dog-eat-dog environment at Apple where all of the energy, talent and resources are being sucked into whiz-bang “The NEXT big thing!” projects.

      The stupid “Space Ship” office building was one example, where we read reports of how Apple diverted its attention into getting doors that have dimensional clearances of a RCH – that’s 101% ego-driven BS, and a “form abusing function” violation of sound design principles: the building cost at least $1B more than it should have.

      And then there’s Project Titan (self driving car). That’s probably another big brain drain that’s hurting the core businesses.

      Plus there’s the cash cow of the iPhone. That alone is at least been draining talent away from the Mac product lines … as illustrated by how they’re still able to design, release and deploy multiple new models every year…but the Macs languish, with refreshes (not even major redesigns) being 2,3,4…SIX years.

      Bottom line is that it has become painfully obvious that the internal Apple culture & politics is that the Mac studios are for the “losers”, even though they’re shipping and making a profit, which, after you cut through all the razzle-dazzle is the core function of Enterprise.

      1. The stupid “Space Ship” office building was one example, where we read reports of how Apple diverted its attention into getting doors that have dimensional clearances of a RCH – that’s 101% ego-driven BS, and a “form abusing function” violation of sound design principles: the building cost at least $1B more than it should have.

        You know that was a Steve Jobs initiative which started in his time! .. right !?

        1. You know that was a Steve Jobs initiative which started in his time! .. right !?

          You do know that Steve Jobs died two years before the local municipality even approved the job site?

          At that time, the design detail plans weren’t even done, let alone contracted out for hardware fabrication.

          And if you didn’t hear about the reports of stupid Architectural demands … which revealed that too many of Apple’s leadership had become distracted away from Apple’s core business … then as an AAPL stockholder, you simply weren’t paying close enough attention to these stewards of your money.

          1. You don’t work in the construction industry?? Any building of that size takes a decade from start to finish, idea, site, planning, design, permit, construction, closeout….

            1. @ Danox … I’ve worked on Engineering projects for decades (including construction and Architectural planning), and am quite familiar with the various stages of a project.

              My point is that there’s a lot of design detail work that came about Post-Steve that chose to try new, unproven technologies & designs – those were unnecessary risks which got added to the project, and these decisions occurred after Steve’s death, so you can’t blame Steve for them.

            1. Get your facts right

              Try reading what I actually wrote.

              Steve died on October 5, 2011

              The Cupertino City Council didn’t approve Apple’s plans until October 15, 2013.

              That’s two full years worth of planning & design detail work that was all post-Steve.

              Plus there was also more design detail work done while the sight clearing was being performed. Similarly, resource leveling and schedule allows for the nonstructural elements to get finished off after the structural designs.

              Its just like building a residential house: your schedule doesn’t need to finalize what color the bedroom walls are going to be painted when you’re designing the structure of the box. Nor even when you’re in implementation putting up the structure’s 2×8’s, plywood & siding.

  4. Stock Market 101: Wall Street doesn’t control, decide or “set” the price of a stock. Nor does it “reflect” the state of the economy, let alone the state of any company represented.
    For example, the success of Apple (or lack thereof) has no direct effect on the price of Apple’s stock. Rather, when traders are (in general) more interested in selling it than buying it, the price of a stock declines. The opposite is also true.
    If you “Play” the stock market (trade) you quickly discover the only way to make money on a rising stock is to be among the first to buy it (when it is still low). And the only way to avoid losing money on a declining stock is to be among the first to sell it (when it is still high). The net result, folks, is traders don’t watch the company behind the stock. They are watching each other. If a few start selling a stock, the rest rush to sell it, too. If they hear some news (or some analyst’s comments) that they think will cause other traders to react, they will try to be among the first to so react. Thus they become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Investors, on the other hand, are interested in the company. They buy and hold for the long term. For them, it’s a savings account with (hopefully) a better return. But because of this, Investors don’t influence price changes in any way.
    Wall Street is not smart, stupid or clueless. People who cry, “They just don’t understand Apple,” don’t understand the market. It’s a mob-mentality, pure & simple. They don’t care about you, me or Apple. They only care about each other and any “skill” they may have is simply the ability to predict what other traders might do before they do it.

    In other words, “traders” are like sheep… If a few suddenly start to run, they all run and in the same direction. Only afterward will analysts attempt to figure out why.
    What’s the solution for Apple? Minimize their reliance/exposure to traders. So, you begin share buy-backs and bond issues – with an eye toward reducing your risk (from traders) or perhaps one day eliminating it! (Get out of the stock market and go private. All they’d really need is lots of money to fund themselves! Hmmm.)
    I’ll get off my soap-box, now.

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