Will Apple beat their guidance?

“Apple was very conservative in its projection for the holiday quarter, so it is likely to make the guidance and has the possibility of exceeding quarterly guidance of higher end models has partially offset the lower volume,” Edward Ambrose writes for Seeking Alpha. “This performance should lead to a recovery in the depressed stock price. It is a strong buy.”

“A survey by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners demonstrates the popularity of the XR, at $749, which accounted for 32% of sales,” Ambrose writes. “The next most popular iPhone is the XS Max at $1,099. This is followed by the XS at $999. The older 7 and 8 models made up 33% of sales. In these versions, the [Plus] models were popular.”

“Analysts have watched the production cutbacks in the Apple supply chain,” Ambrose writes. “The question that cannot be answered is, what was the production rate originally planned for the first quarter. With the growth seen last year, that could be at around 80 million units. This would require large cuts and still leave them with excess inventory. The pessimism might be overdone.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: “The pessimism might be overdone” is a late entry for understatement of the year, but Ambrose got it in just under the wire!

For the current quarter, Apple has guided for revenue between $89 billion and $93 billion which, if achieved, would be a new all-time quarterly record.

The last time Apple’s stock price fell this much, shares rallied 75 percent in 12 months – December 31, 2018


  1. I read the original article. It is a shallow rehash of prior works adding nothing new, with much (if not all) of the author’s conclusions and recommendations faulty.

  2. Apple has beat (4 of 8 periods) its high revenue guidance by an average of 0.17% over the last 8 quarters.

    On the other hand, WS consensus has missed Apple’s reported revenue (8 of 8 periods) by -1.62% over the same period. WS’s high revenue estimate has missed (6 of 8 periods) reported revenue by an average -0.31%.

    If Apple guided high revenue of $93 Billion (as it did) I would expect it to beat that number, because that’s what it does.

  3. Pessimism surrounds Apple. Despite Apple’s long-term performance, the company doesn’t seem to get any benefit of the doubt. When a company has a bad quarter, I can understand investors being unhappy, but to knock a company’s value based on supply chain rumors, it just seems stupid to be so pessimistic. Apple had already given weak guidance, so why is it necessary to keep pouring on the bad news without solid proof? I just think it would be best for investors to simply wait for the next quarterly report. As Apple won’t be reporting unit sales, what’s the point of these people constantly guessing unit sales?

  4. Interesting that tech companies like AAPL, Netflix and Amazon are all down 25-35% in the last few months. Their business is direct to customers and affected by fears of lower sales.
    Companies like MSFT and GOOG are only down 10-15%. Their revenue is not tied to consumer spending to the same degree.
    Apple will not bee reporting unit sales anymore so good revenue numbers will help the stock recover and indicate to the market that growth fears are overblown.

  5. Because of the ongoing risk of China tariffs (currently, the boost to 25% is delayed to 1 APR 19), this is going to be an interesting quarterly report from Apple in what they have to say about it.

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