Apple is having its worst month since the financial crisis, but the long-term trend appears intact

“Apple is getting crushed again this week,” Keris Lahiff reports for CNBC. “Monday’s losses pulled its stock back into a bear market, having fallen 20 percent from the Oct. 3 record high, while November’s drop puts it on track for its worst month since September 2008. Its decline has wiped more than $220 billion from its market cap in a little more than a month.”

“‘The stock is surely succumbing to broadening market weakness. It’s below this $194 support level that we’ve been highlighting,’ Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, said Monday on CNBC’s Trading Nation,” Lahiff reports. “However, Wald says looking further out, the case for Apple looks strong. ‘We’re recommending for our longer-term clients that are benchmarked against the S&P 500 to stick with it,’ Wald said. ‘If you look at the stock relative to the S&P 500, support levels are still intact, it’s still correcting back into its six-year breakout versus the market dating back to the year 2012 and it’s still in a relative uptrend as well dating back to 2016.'”

Lahiff reports, “Even after the month’s losses, Apple is still outperforming the S&P 500 for the year. It is up nearly 10 percent in 2018, far better than the 0.6 percent gain on the benchmark index.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Like Cramer says of Apple, “Don’t trade it. Own it.”

25 Comments

  1. I think the trend will point downwards unless Apple starts refocusing on affordable wearables and Mac series of computers that bring additional value to customers year by year like they used to do.

    If they want to be a producer of political correct, toothless movies and series in addition to curated left leaning news, good luck with that, but do it in a separate company and stop (over)charging your hardware customers for stuff they never asked for.

    1. This is precisely why Apple needs to pay more attention to Macs and the additional revenue streams it’s leaving on the table. You can take your iPad Pro and shove it up your ass as a replacement for a much better Mac solution Apple! Quit drinking your own Apple juice and take a step outside in the real world. It’s a world of mixed needs and you need to address them all.

    2. This is the tech market as a whole not just Apple. Your reasons for AAPL going lower make no sense because they don’t explain why all tech stocks are down right now. Tech is being punished in general right now by the market. It has little to do with Apple. Maybe nothing in fact.

          1. “Apple’s current direction has nothing to do with tech stocks losing value right now.”

            Anyone can choose a Market screen name, it means nothing. Apple’s current direction has EVERYTHING to do with it. The phone company will no longer report or project sales. Phone sales are flat and projected to decline next year and suppliers are reporting reduced orders. Take two: Get a grip..,

        1. Someone was saying today how cash is king. Apparently, Apple must have run out of cash or so it would seem. I’m not complaining as long as Apple is buying back stock, but I’m just pointing it out as Apple is really taking it on the chin today. Such dumping really doesn’t make much sense to me except for pulling money out of Apple to cover other losses. I don’t know why so many investors would keep panicking every day. Something I’m missing must really have them spooked.

      1. You are 100% completely wrong. Apple was actually strongly outperforming the market and tech stocks in specific, until their last earnings report. Then all hell broke loose and Apple has been getting crushed daily ever since. Investors are clearly unhappy with the direction Pipeline is taking the company and are liquidating their positions completely. -$52 in just a month!

      2. “Tech is being punished in general right now by the market. It has little to do with Apple. Maybe nothing in fact.”

        Little and nothing to do with the first trillion dollar company declining? Get a grip…

    3. Yup, the Mac has been under-supported.

      And as I pointed out a few weeks ago: Apple’s services business is a straight line from iOS, so if (when) iOS flusters, so too will Services because it isn’t actually independent.

      -hh

  2. I’ve been investing in AAPL for many years and have weathered quite a few periods of panic selling similar to this one. In every case, Apple’s fundamental business had been solid throughout and in hindsight, it turned out that it was all a fuss about nothing.

    I see no reason to believe that this current sell-off is any different to previous ones and I have every expectation that when this nonsense is all over and done with, AAPL will recover rapidly and then a little while later we will see yet another irrational sell off based on unreliable rumours.

    1. Cramer says the market won’t stabilize until Apple does. That’s absolutely ridiculous. Any negative rumors can easily make Apple stock continue to drop, so I hope the entire market isn’t dependent upon what Apple does. Apple looks to be in freefall.

  3. The sky is falling… on Apple. Apple will likely be heavily buying back shares and that makes me happy. C’mon Buffett, you said you wish you could own all of Apple, so keep buying these discounted shares. I wonder if there are any other institutional funds who have the guts to buy Apple stock during this down period. Personally, I don’t see the point of selling my stock if I’m still getting dividends even while the stock is down.

    The way this market is collapsing, I doubt there’s anything Apple could have done to stop the bleeding even if they were focused on selling more Macs and iPads. There are too many gutless investors out there who are scared of their own shadows. This is really a fine time to buy stocks as I doubt there is much more downside to come.

  4. Isn’t the business genius president in control of the market? Wasn’t he supposed to shoot stocks to the moon?

    Apple has gathering problems but the macroeconomy is also crumbling under the weight of bad short-term thinking of the most corrupt US administration in modern history. Trump took a market with positive momentum, declared it wasn’t growing fast enough, goosed it with tax cuts to friends and massive spending increases for a quick GDP sprint, and the results are predictable. Trump is now suddenly silent about the economy as it deflates around him. He will blame the other party for everything that happens in the last two years of his tenure, but the reality is that everything he’s done up to now is just hitting home. All the NAFTA bullshit, all the anti-NATO, anti-EU rhetoric, all the tough protectionist nationalist pep rallies have done nothing to make the USA more competitive. Quite the opposite. They were smoke screen to continued corporate malfeasance. Not to mention the rotating door of corrupt officials Trump employed to undermine the departments they were supposed to lead. Businesses that rely on government services have been screwed. Only now are the full impacts starting to be felt.

    Anyway, the Wall Street gambling den is in correction territory for many reasons, not just “public enemy” media or misspelled analysts trying to make sense of the incomplete misleading guidance that corporations now issue. How many billion in corporate welfare does Amazon collect? Nobody knows, there is no cop on the beat. Citizens pay more so corporate deadbeats can play with bigger rockets, or fund social justice campaigns. Yay.

    What else is happening?
    1) reckless diplomatic policy of the US leading to trade wars. Farmers in the US can’t sell their crops.
    2) reckless fiscal policy of the US leading to massive federal debts, guaranteeing massive unavoidable future tax hikes when citizens can least afford it.
    3) high consumer and small business debts at a time when free cash flow should be easy – thanks to runaway healthcare and educational costs, among other things.
    4) tech firms have been spending billions on R&D with little to show for it, most of their hyped products have failed to perform. At some point investors are going to realize that the most overcapitalized Fortune 500 companies in the USA don’t actually build anything. It’s a house of cards.
    5) energy prices strongly down as worldwide consumers tighten their belts.
    6) Reality check finally hitting FAANG stocks — has the polish finally worn off these predatory info-thieving ad agencies? We can only hope so.
    7) Retail sales showing bad returns (Kohls, Macys, Target all issued weak earnings and/or low forecasts) — see consumer debt above. Millenials working two and three dead end jobs to make ends meet.
    8) lack of innovation — Tech hype can’t cope with reality that more electronic complications don’t pay for themselves. Car companies seeing light sales because the market is flooded with me-too cute utes with no differentiation to mention. Companies like Ford have no EVs to offer, effectively shutting them out of emerging markets where the EV is the only way to drive in polluted Asian cities and congested urban centers worldwide. In the real world, we see that self driving cars kill. Uber was revealed to increase road congestion in several studies. Smart Home junk is revealed to be junk. Companies like Apple attempt to charge premium prices for lackluster product capabilities, dongles not included, is dampening enthusiasm for its forced subscription-based wireless thin aluminium future.
    9) Brexit keeps the world’s largest trade bloc on its heels
    10) The real estate bubble, fully reinflated in many cities since the last crash, is ready to burst.
    11) natural disasters just keep coming. Texas, Puerto Rico, now 5% of California are devastated. Trump does next to nothing as formerly prosperous regions are literally unplugged from the economy.

    The slow motion train wreck will keep moving for a while. Expect a fairly decent holiday season as the shoppers enjoy blowout sales on the last cheap imported stuff for a while.

    2019 may not be so merry. First, during tax season the working classes will be surprised how little their tax rate declined. Then the economic bad news will snowball. Even if Apple and others are sitting on piles of cash, major economic stawarts like GE and Sears etc are in full meltdown mode. Amazon continues to take a wrecking ball to Main Street.

    Will AAPL escape unscathed? Of course not. Apple will find now more than ever that its products are luxuries, not necessities. Apple doesn’t operate in a vacuum and it needs to get realistic about its pricing and the value it provides its customers. With rare exception, Apple is so hyper focused on app stores and subscriptions that it has lost the plot on its own software and hardware. In a few years Cook has pushed Apple to become an overpriced fractured ecosystem that doesn’t work well together, if at all. Pushing itself into the high-style luxury image may have been great when both Silicon Valley millionaires and millenials had lots of money in their pockets, but Apple hasn’t the recipe to crack emerging markets, which will manifest itself as Mac vs PC version 2.0, with Android being the easy winner in the long run. Owning all of corporate clients and 80+ % of consumers will do that. Attempting to push a >$1k phone tested the market and it looks like Apple isn’t moving as many units as the cheerleaders imagine. Cookie hasn’t the vision to implement the next big thing. Worse, he doesn’t have the common courtesy to maintain the diverse product portfolio Apple used to have. Apple therefore has ceded the search business to Google, the social networking to FB and Twitfarm etc; the cloud biz to Microsoft and Amazon, media distribution to Netflix, Roku, Amazon, et al; the powerful computer business to Microsoft/ HP / Dell / Lenovo, etc.

    I hope you guys will be happy with the forthcoming Apple sponsored movies and carpool karaoke. If Apple doesn’t come through in 2019 with a Mac Pro that blows the doors off Windows workstations in performance and value, then what exactly is supposed to fuel the growth? Pipeline Cook’s got nothing else for the mainstream, and the world market is tightening its belt, battening the hatches for trade wars. I seriously doubt that Beats, Apple TV, overpriced OLED/FaceID Phat Phones or bulbous Watches are going to pull Apple through. Don’t look now, but beleaguered Microsoft is breathing down Cook’s skinny little pipeline neck. Why? Because it serves business customers, educational customers, and all ends of the consumer market from cheap to expensive. Apple gave away most of those markets with its nose up in the air.

    Anyone want to buy a second Milanese Loop Band? Didn’t think so.

    1. Another factually empty opinionated blowhard never-ending screed from Socialist Mike (in other words a slow-motion communist takeover tool) who doesn’t realized he’d be like the 80% starving population in Venezuela if his whacko dreams of controlling us became a frightening reality. Put your foolish overlong rants to rest Mike. There is no one with logic who will swallow your poison pill crackpot ideas. Not if they want to prosper and survive.

      1. Don’t worry, dumbass Kudlow said the market is strong and investors should “have faith”.

        Apparently he didn’t get the memo that the market is not the economy and on average wall street gamblers have lost money for 2018. The market is not strong.

        In your attack on Mike, who nowhere i have seen has ever advocated the slightest bit of socialism (do you know what socialism is?), you fail to point out anything he said that is factually incorrect.

        You just don’t want to admit that Trump duped you. Repeatedly.

      2. “Another factually empty opinionated blowhard never-ending screed from Socialist Mike…”

        YES, that says it all. I stopped reading the selective reality screed after two grafs. Ever notice, he never criticizes ANYONE in the Democratic Party. Anyone that posts 100% negatives about any party is MENTALLY ILL…

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