“The moment everyone has been waiting for is nearly here. Tomorrow, Apple will hold a media event where we will see the largest iPhone reveal since the company launched the phone 10 years ago,” Bill Maurer writes for Seeking Alpha. “As expectations continue to climb with the stock near its all-time highs, the only thing I am certain of this week is that Apple will disappoint someone (and perhaps many).”
“No, I am not here today to be an Apple bear or detail some doom and gloom scenario for the company and the stock. That’s reserved for the big market players who think that Apple could take down the whole market this week,” Maurer writes. “Tuesday’s event just isn’t long enough for Apple to unveil as many items as some are hoping for. Last year’s event lasted just under two hours, with some previous revels being even shorter than that… When we get to the point where consumers/investors are expecting dozens of sparkling new announcements, it only increases the chance that more and more will be disappointed.”
“The day that Apple unveils the new phone is the worst trading period for the stock when looking at times surrounding these iPhone events. Of the 10 major iPhone launches (excluding the SE for this argument), the stock has declined seven of those 10 days,” Maurer writes. “So as we are in the final stage of the countdown to Apple’s biggest iPhone event in history, I can guarantee that there will be some level of disappointment. This isn’t meant to be an Apple bear take, it’s just a given because there are such high expectations and so many different items that are expected to be covered in just a two hour or so event. If management waits to cover things like Apple TV and the HomePod, for example, for another event perhaps next month, there will be a ton of complaints.”
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MacDailyNews Take: As is typical, when Apple doesn’t introduce a transporter, everything that they do unveil will be met with a “meh,” as the hoi polloi often fail to see revolutions even when they’re detailed right in front of their faces. For example:
• “The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant… Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market… Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won’t make a long-term mark on the industry.” – Matthew Lynn, Bloomberg, January 15, 2007
• “I am pretty skeptical. I don’t think [iPhone] will meet the fantastic predictions I have been reading. For starters, while Apple basically established the market for portable music players, the phone market is already established, with a number of major brands. Can Apple remake the phone market in its image? Success is far from guaranteed.” – Jack Gold, founder and principal analyst at J. Gold Associates, January 11, 2007
• “I’m more convinced than ever that, after an initial frenzy of publicity and sales to early adopters, iPhone sales will be unspectacular… iPhone may well become Apple’s next Newton.” – David Haskin, Computerworld, February 26, 2007