Stocks up, transports rebound; 5 reasons to keep holding Apple

“Tech stocks lagged on Friday as strength in the transportation, energy and select retail sectors helped boost at least two of the key averages,” David Saito-Chung writes for Investor’s Business Daily. “Apple, meanwhile, appeared poised for a fourth up week in a row.”

“Apple is up more than 1% to 159.84, up mildly from an Aug. 2 breakout past a 156.75 flat base. That base is second stage,” Saito-Chung writes. “The correct buy zone for Apple goes up to 164.58, or 5% past the 156.75 proper entry.”

“The prospects of further gains in Apple still look intact. One reason: the most recent base is second stage,” Saito-Chung writes. ” A high-quality company tends to thrive when coming out of a first, second or third stage base. Fourth and fifth stage bases tend to bring out more sellers and put a breakout in doubt.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: But, what do the entrails say?

Ah, we do so love haruspices, er… technical traders.


    1. And Bloomberg continues with their down-turn warnings. From my amateur point of view, AAPL seems to be largely distinct from those with the characteristics Bloomberg interprets a doom-berg. Nonetheless, intuition says there’s something askew and the market climb is curious. Maybe time to sell a bit before yr’s end.

  1. “Ah, we do so love haruspices, er… technical traders.”

    No we don’t. There are two kinds of people in the markets: Investors (buy stocks) and Traders (buy/sell options).

    Investors should be thinking 5 year horizons (updated annually), while Traders think 3 months out (Earnings report to Earnings report).

    Technical Analysis purports to time entry/exit points with a 3 day horizon. Stupid.

    In the last 13 years I’ve followed every “investment” guru known to man and tried all of their strategies.

    I trade options. I started making consistent gains (average 90% ROI per trade) when I settled down and began thinking in 3 – 6 month time frames and ignored the advice of WS. I have developed my own trading rules which depend heavily on fundamentals. Whatever you do DO NOT FOLLOW the TA advocates.

  2. I’m getting ready to sell APPL for the first time in 20 years, before the trump crash hits this fall. I have total confidence in Apple but unfortunately they will plunge along with everything else.

    1. In the event of a crash, obviously Apple will fall along with most others, but the biggest danger is with stocks which have excessive P/E ratios. That will include a lot of tech stocks and when the tech sector is under pressure, AAPL is pushed further down, but the thing to bear in mind with Apple is the the underlying fundamentals of Apple’s business are very solid and it will recover much faster than most.

      I’ve been investing in Apple for a very long time now and have ridden out some very hectic downturns and at least one global financial crash, but Apple has always bounced back very resiliently. Some of my biggest AAPL purchases were at times when the market was very pessimistic and I felt that the price had become unrealistically low.

      As far as selling in the near future is concerned. A frequent pattern is for a rapid boost for AAPL in the run up to a launch and then dropping back soon after the launch, especially if the naysayers can whip up some sort of storm in a teacup about the new model ( AntennaGate, BendyGate, easily scratched screens, another ‘boring’ design etc ), but those downturns are often short lived and this time around I’m feeling pretty confident about Apple delivering something great and am not currently planning to sell this year, but always keep my options under review.

      There is a similar pattern of build up before quarterly financial results which is often followed by a temporary drop once those results have been announced. I posted a comment a few weeks ago, just before the most recent results were announced saying that I wasn’t expecting much of a fall, so would be holding. As it happened, the fall only lasted for about a day or so and then rose again as speculators took on board what was really happening.

      Some people are long term investors and some are speculators. I buy and hold, but my buying or selling pattern often takes advantage of predictable fluctuations created by speculators. If speculators are going to blow hot and cold on Apple under predictable circumstances, then I’m quite happy to sell shares when I anticipate they are approaching a peak and then use that money a few weeks later to buy more shares at a lower price. My preference would be to simply buy and hold those shares, but as the speculators have turned AAPL into a volatile stock, I’ll happily take advantage of those speculators when I think they’re calling it wrong.

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