International Monetary Fund boosts growth forecast for US, citing President-elect Donald Trump’s policies

“The International Monetary Fund on Monday said the U.S. economy would grow faster than previously expected in 2017 and 2018 based on the incoming Trump administration’s tax and spending plans,” David Lawder reports for Reuters, “but it kept its global growth forecasts unchanged due to weakness in some emerging markets.”

“Updating its World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecast overall global growth at 3.4 percent for 2017 and 3.6 percent for 2018, unchanged from October,” Lawder reports. “That compared to 3.1 percent in 2016, the weakest year since the 2007-2009 financial crisis.”

“The new IMF outlook does not include any assumptions regarding Trump’s trade plans, such as potential tariffs on Mexican and Chinese goods, as there seems to be less of a political consensus surrounding them, [IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld] said. The IMF does assume a stronger dollar, firmer oil prices and ‘more inflationary pressure and a less-gradual normalization of U.S. monetary policy,'” Lawder reports. “[The IMF] noted there was potential for upside growth surprises if policy stimulus in the United States or China turned out to be larger than currently projected. It said it expects more certainty over the direction of U.S. policy by the time of the next full World Economic Outlook in April.”

Read more in the full article here.

President-elect of the United States Donald trump and First Lady of the United States Designate Melania Trump
President-elect of the United States Donald trump and First Lady of the United States Designate Melania Trump
“The 189-nation global lending agency’s latest economic outlook took note of the significant impact Trump’s election has already had in giving a boost to U.S. stock prices, interest rates and the dollar,” The Associated Press reports. “The new outlook puts U.S. economic growth at 2.3 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2018. That would be an improvement from lackluster U.S. growth around 1.6 percent in 2016.”

“The new forecast represents a boost of 0.1 percentage point this year and an increase of 0.4 percentage point for 2018, when Trump’s stimulus plans would be expected to be phased in,” AP reports. “That is a half-point higher growth than the IMF was forecasting in October, before Trump’s election.”

“‘We now have the presidency and the legislative branch in the same hands. It seems very clear to us that some of the promises will be delivered on,’ Obstfeld said. ‘We know the direction of policies. We don’t know the specifics,'” AP reports. “He said that the IMF had chosen not to incorporate Trump’s threats of imposing higher tariffs on countries such as China and Mexico if their trade policies do not change because of a belief ‘that at the end of the day, countries will realize these are not in their best interests given the threat of retaliation. … The outbreak of a trade war would be quite destructive.'”

“While Trump’s election victory boosted economic prospects in the United States, the impact has been uneven for the rest of the world,” AP reports. “Some countries could see stronger growth from the increase in activity in the United States, the world’s largest economy, but some emerging market countries may face challenges as global interest rates rise.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Good news for Apple’s second largest market. It’ll be extremely interesting to see how this all (corporate taxes, trade policy, stimulus, manufacturing, import/export tariffs, etc.) shakes out for multinationals like Apple.

37 Comments

  1. What policies? President Obama wanted to spend on infrastructure the day he took office. For eight years the republicans have tried to make him look bad and keep the public believing that he was doing nothing.Silly that americans still don’t know how their country works. Congress is the only one of the branches that can spend money. If you are an American with out a job, you only have the republican congress to blame. What is odd, is the american people elect these do nothing republicans to office. How stupid is that? All for the sake of multibillion dollar people and business to pay nothing in taxes. Funny right, as if they are going to take that money and hire them. I guess they don’t realize they, the american people, are the biggest cost. You would think they would get smarter over time as these companies’ first cost cutting measure, always, is to terminate jobs.

    1. For two years, Obama had the House and the Senate. He chose to ram through “affordable healthcare” which would be a joke if it wasn’t such a tragic clusterfsck.

      And you confused Dem/Lib/Progs, with your tiny, shrinking, regional party, have been paying for Oblahblah’s feckless arrogance and ineptitude ever since.

      You lose Dem/Lib/Prog. You’re all really good at that. 🙂

      Under Obama, the Democrats have lost over 900 state legislature seats, 12 governors, 69 House seats, and 13 Senate seats. The Obama legacy is total failure that will be effectively erased. The Democrat Party is merely a regional party by all rational definition.

      The Republican Party controls the governor’s office and both chambers of the state legislature, a governing trifecta in 24 U.S. states vs. the Democrats with only 6 (Wash., Ore., Calif., Hawaii, Del., and R.I.). Under Obama, there has been a net loss of 1,042 state and federal Democratic posts, including congressional and state legislative seats, governorships and the presidency.

      At the federal level, the Republican Party owns the governing superfecta:
      1. Presidency
      2. Senate
      3. House
      4. Supreme Court

      In 2018, the Republican Party is poised to exceed 60 seats, a supermajority sufficient to stop any filibuster, assuming filibusters still exist at that time.

      Enjoy the Trump administration and the coming decades of a conservatively-stacked Supreme Court. I certainly will.

      1. See this is the typical american. President Obama had the House and the Senate. See this individual and many like them don’t realize for that to be the case 60 senators would have to be Democrats. That was never the case. Now this person that knows so much does know how the minority under those old rules of the senate kept things from happening. This person deserves trump. Out of the people that voted trump didn’t get the majority of them. He never received the majority of the republican party. So who are you kidding.

        1. ‘Youth Misery Index’ hits all-time high under Obama.

          The annual Youth Misery Index (YMI) has hit a record high.

          The index is calculated by adding youth unemployment, student loan debt, and national debt (per capita) numbers. The 2017 figure of 113.4 is up from 109.9 last January and 83.5 in 2009, when Oblahblah took office, thanks to a bunch of dupes slathered liberally with “White Guilt.”

          “Over the course of Obama’s presidency, the YMI has spiked an alarming 29.9 points, an increase of 36 percent,” Young America’s Foundation stated. “Young Americans, a generation that provided critical support to the President in 2008 and 2012, have slogged through the last eight years, and will be chained to its impact on their futures for years to come.”

          Silly snowflakes, you’ve been sold a bill of goods. You’re gonna need a bigger safe space – oh, wait – here comes the GOP to clean up your mess yet again!

          Not to be a Republican at twenty is proof of want of heart; to be one at thirty is proof of want of head.

        2. Obama scores the worst legislative record in history; Signed fewer bills into law than one-termer Carter

          Obama oversaw the deepest legislative malaise in modern political history. Over the course of his eight years, he has signed just 1,227 bills into law — less, even, than one-term President Jimmy the peanut farmer Carter, former King of American Malaise.

          Obama’s executive orders and the rest of his sorry legacy are soon to be erased.

          1 day, 12 hours, 4 minutes and 35 seconds to go!

            1. botty baby, come on, I know the truth hurts. But since there is the ACA, which the little guy, senator, from FL, stuck something in a bill to hurt the Act and force insurers out of the exchanges, by not allowing the government to live up to the deal, exist you can go to the doctor, while buying cheaper gasoline to get there.

  2. It’s simple. Both parties stink and both have their failings and downsides. As usual a more centrist point of view is the correct one IMHO. Pole extremes are usually never a good thing.

          1. Gee Willakers Botty!

            This is what I get for at least sympathizing with your comment above, though I don’t agree?

            You won’t need a laboratory tests to check my having a YouTube chromosome. It can be done manually, orally, or visually, but I won’t let you.

            Send a picture of Botty’s mom and her shots records and we’ll see. That’s if you trust her.

  3. Possibly yes and possibly no. Only time will tell.

    Forbes gives the full IMF analysis not the truncates MDN version. The Forbes link is:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/01/16/imf-the-donald-trump-boom-is-a-bit-of-this-and-a-bit-of-that-for-the-us-economy/#5d05aa88166b

    They add the the other half of the IMF analysis which says:

    Fiscal policy is taxes and the budget and spending and stuff like that. It is generally assumed that a larger deficit boosts the economy, is a stimulus. Monetary policy is interest rates (and QE and all that jazz) and lower interest rates are a stimulus to the economy. And a smaller deficit, higher interest rates, are both contractionary to the economy.

    In comes The Donald and he wants to cut taxes and spend lots more on infrastructure. The deficit will rise and we get fiscal stimulus, thus the economy grows, right? And yes, it sure does, grows right up to the limits of the capacity of the economy. If we’ve unused factories and millions of unemployed then they all get put back to work and that’s just great. But once we’re running everything at full capacity then it changes a bit. We generally think that we can only grow the economy, when it’s at capacity, by perhaps 2% a year, maybe 3%. It’s a bit hazy I’m afraid, but we really do think there’s a limit. Sure, we can make that limit higher, by reducing regulation and so on, making the economy freer, but even that’s not limitless. At some point we stop getting growth and our stimulus just turns up as inflation.

    Which is where the Fed comes in. They’re supposed to stop inflation. And they control monetary policy. So, if they think that the fiscal stimulus is too much then they’ll raise interest rates. And thus we’ll not get either the burst of growth nor the inflation. Which is the background we want to understand the IMF here. No one really knows how much spare capacity there is in the economy. We’re about to find out though. And we’ll get a boost to growth until it looks like inflation will go up at which point the Fed raises interest rates and the economy stops growing so fast.

    Thus the prediction of only a modest boost to growth from Trump’s macroeconomic policies.

    And this is also a vindication of a long held prejudice of mine. Macroeconomics isn’t really the important part despite all of the attention paid to it. Microeconomics is – the costs of those regulations, how free is the marketplace and so on. And it’s there that Trump really could make the US economy boom. But it’s both hard work and takes years to come through. Still worth doing though, definitely the most important thing anyone can do for the American economy today, free it up.

    Fiscal policy is taxes and the budget and spending and stuff like that. It is generally assumed that a larger deficit boosts the economy, is a stimulus. Monetary policy is interest rates (and QE and all that jazz) and lower interest rates are a stimulus to the economy. And a smaller deficit, higher interest rates, are both contractionary to the economy.

    In comes The Donald and he wants to cut taxes and spend lots more on infrastructure. The deficit will rise and we get fiscal stimulus, thus the economy grows, right? And yes, it sure does, grows right up to the limits of the capacity of the economy. If we’ve unused factories and millions of unemployed then they all get put back to work and that’s just great. But once we’re running everything at full capacity then it changes a bit. We generally think that we can only grow the economy, when it’s at capacity, by perhaps 2% a year, maybe 3%. It’s a bit hazy I’m afraid, but we really do think there’s a limit. Sure, we can make that limit higher, by reducing regulation and so on, making the economy freer, but even that’s not limitless. At some point we stop getting growth and our stimulus just turns up as inflation.

    Which is where the Fed comes in. They’re supposed to stop inflation. And they control monetary policy. So, if they think that the fiscal stimulus is too much then they’ll raise interest rates. And thus we’ll not get either the burst of growth nor the inflation. Which is the background we want to understand the IMF here. No one really knows how much spare capacity there is in the economy. We’re about to find out though. And we’ll get a boost to growth until it looks like inflation will go up at which point the Fed raises interest rates and the economy stops growing so fast.

    Thus the prediction of only a modest boost to growth from Trump’s macroeconomic policies.

    And this is also a vindication of a long held prejudice of mine. Macroeconomics isn’t really the important part despite all of the attention paid to it. Microeconomics is – the costs of those regulations, how free is the marketplace and so on. And it’s there that Trump really could make the US economy boom. But it’s both hard work and takes years to come through. Still worth doing though, definitely the most important thing anyone can do for the American economy today, free it up.

    As I said, time will tell what finally plays. Neither Trump supporters nor Democrats know the final outcome and neither does the IMF …and neither do I. And frankly until the new government starts governing and congress does their bit will we know the final outcome.

  4. On the 20th, I will be wearing all black. As usual. Only this time, it may be a permanent mourning. Thank God I have no kids to try to explain the nightmare to. I hope we’re all here in 4 years. Maybe I should buy a new iMac now while I still have time and money. And health insurance.

    1. auramac, what’s your address? I’ll send over some sackcloth and ashes. Also, is there a professional near by that can keep you from all sharp objects and power tools?

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