Apple: Here comes the bear attack

“Last month, I discussed whether tech giant Apple needed President-elect Donald Trump to deliver on promises for tax cuts and a repatriation holiday. The basis for my argument was that after a monster fiscal Q1 period, Apple would face tough times leading up to the iPhone 8 launch as consumers waited for the new device and the rumored lack of an iPhone SE refresh would hurt smartphone sales,” Bill Maurer writes for Seeking Alpha. “Well, as we’ve seen with the Street several times in the past, analysts are now getting extremely worried as we approach the company’s earnings report in a couple of weeks.”

“The snowball started just before the end of the year when Nikkei reported Apple was going to cut iPhone production by 10%,” Maurer writes. “There was a similar report from Nikkei last year about cuts to a larger degree, and while the magnitude may have been off, it was a tough fiscal year for the iPhone. Just a few days later, an analyst at Raymond James cut his iPhone estimates, noting subdued consumer technology spending. Two negative notes may not seem like much given all the coverage of Apple, but things have really accelerated this week in the analyst community.”

“Now I’m not here today to ring the alarm bell or start some Apple is dying campaign,” Maurer writes. “The company is still in decent shape and should get back to revenue and earnings growth this year. However, investors shouldn’t be surprised if we see more negative reports like this, and it wouldn’t shock me to see more estimates come. There’s still almost three weeks until earnings, but it appears that the bear attack has already started.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: The lower the bar for earnings and guidance, the better – even if it involves some short-term pain via ginned-up reports from unreliable media outlets and third-rate analysts.

Nikkei: Apple to decrease iPhone production 10% in first quarter of 2017 – December 30, 2016
Nikkei proclaims ‘iPhone 7’ Dead On Arrival; bemoans Apple’s ‘lack of innovation’ – May 12, 2016
Japan’s Nikkei, The Wall Street Journal blow it, get iPhone demand story all wrong – January 16, 2013
Did Apple reduce 4-inch Retina display orders due to improving yields? – January 15, 2013
Analysts: iPhone 5 demand ‘robust;’ ignore the non-news noise – January 15, 2013
Apple iPhone suppliers decline on report orders cut by 50% – January 15, 2013
Apple swoon erases $17 billion from stock market – January 14, 2013
Apple iPhone 5 production cut signaling a new product release? – January 14, 2013
Apple drops to 11-month low on old reports of component cuts – January 14, 2013
The strange math of Apple’s alleged massive iPhone 5 component cuts – January 14, 2013
UBS analysts: Apple iPhone component order reduction ‘old news’ – January 14, 2013
Apple pulls down U.S. futures – January 14, 2013
Apple shares drop below $500 after reported cuts in iPhone 5 parts orders – January 14, 2013


    1. I don’t believe Apple needs anybody’s help. They have done well for themselves for years. They can spend their money earned outside of the US of A in ways that will increase jobs and profits in more friendly countries in almost any part of the world (except Russia – Donald has ties there and makes ties in China)

      1. I did not say Apple needs help. Conflate much?

        If the tax holiday passes and Apple decides to take advantage, yes, that would help. Simple as that … duh.

        Cook testified as such in front of Congress on this issue.

      1. “Common decency will help us all.”

        Now go back and read the rest of your post immediately following, Mr. HateDailyNews. As a hateful fascist on the LEFT, I do hope you get help soon.

        Fat, high and stupid is no way to go through life, son.

  1. Nikke report is Fud.. apple always reduces orders after holiday season.. nothing unususl or akarming there. At least not on the surface.
    As for the rest of the article… ‘negatives are accelerating…’ ….despite, so far the market has been pushing the stock up .

    In anycase .. im with MDN… once in a while we agree 😉

    1. jut out of curiosity… does anyone have the figures on mr. apples history of post holiday order reductions over the past several years?

      that would certainly help folks like my self make an informed judgement on the significance of the 10% cut back – is it significantly more, or significantly less or pretty much in the same ball park as past reductions ?

  2. Technically, the stock has just broken an ascending triangle pattern and possibly a cup and handle pattern on the daily. This means the stock should be breaking to the upside. The Bears are trying to reverse the stock to invalidate these patterns. Others players might have sold calls near this level and don’t want the stock to advance further.

    I don’t think the shorts anticipated the news to be as good as it has been. For example, the recent Nikkei article stated the iPhone cut to be 10% this year. Last year around the same time they said the cut was going to be 30%. The other non bearish news has been some of the supplier earnings beats. For example, TSMC reported much better than expected earnings today, and their stock had an OK rally in a down market.

    1. Most excellent point.

      Yes, Trump has a plan to lower all tax rates permanently.

      Fingers crossed he gets it passed sooner rather than later … 🙏🏻🇺🇸🎉

      1. Seriously? Lower all taxes permanently.

        And he’d also fix healthcare, get everyone covered, and pay for it from somewhere.

        And he’d increase spending on infrastructure, the military, and brothels.

        Curious why people think all those things are possible (the one with brothels might be).

        1. “Permanently” is tongue in cheek.

          Taxes were lowered by the JFK and Reagan administrations leading to great economic expansion. As opposed to the Clinton years when Bill lamented he raised our taxes too much.

          As far as the other goals you mentioned: to accomplish the rest, why not just follow the Obama model by doubling the national debt in eight years?

          I don’t recall the media, Democrats or Liberals screaming bloody murder double debt was a bad thing.

          But with Trump, fasten your seat belts for epic double standard whining hypocrisy to come … 😝

      2. We’re going to see some faction warz. But there will be something significant.

        Mr. Trump is not a realist. He’s a showman, narcissist and con man. Getting that to somehow work within a system of positive change will be a source of angst. But clearly, he’s got the ears of a lot of business interest, and they have his.

        For me, the biggest question mark is dealing with the Paul Ryan, ‘burn it all down’, ‘it’s all about me me me’ faction of sociopathy. There’s going to be a fire. All sides will get burned. That’s what sociopaths do.

        1. You need to grasp the point that “positive” change is subject to fluid manipulation just like any other political concept. For many, “positive” change is a return to the policies of Ronald Reagan. Those policies can’t yield the same benefits today, because the conditions of economic growth have changed, but many believe they are entirely independent of economics — that vital leadership, supreme will, and charisma alone can make these policies work. People believe in their Prince more than in science, statistics, and common sense. If policies fail, it is understood to be the result of treachery. Trickle-down economics is not dead; it is undead, rising like a reanimated mummy to wreak havoc on intruders into the holy sanctum of the Pharaoh, loath to be disturbed by common people. We’ve seen this movie before, and it ends badly.

          1. Thank you.

            I add ‘positive’ to ‘change’ if only to remind people that the phrase ‘Change is good’ is nonsense. It’s good change that’s good. That’s a small step toward sanity.

            But as usual, reality is in the mind of the beholder. Whether ‘Trickle-down economics’ was ever a concept anyone actually believed was true, is up for historical debate. IMHO it was total nonsense. Everyone espousing and inflicting it knew it was nonsense. It was just another Neo-Feudalism trick pulled on the suckers. Feed the rich. Let the peasants starve. The usual bad attitude toward our fellow humanity from that ilk. I prefer being humane. 👍😺😄

            1. Feudalism was simpler than what we have today. There was a social contract understood by all parties, each of whom knew his place, his obligations, and his responsibilities. (The place of women was understood from a much earlier bargain between the sexes.) The system we have today is what Charles Dickens liked to depict as a degraded form of feudalism, with lords neglectful of their obligations, and serfs uncomfortably becoming aware of the possibility of social mobility. With noise in the system, the wheels of progress grind to a halt and a war must be fought to settle the issue. We are still fighting such wars.

        2. Well, Obama is also a narcissist showman and certainly the media and Hollywood sycophants fawn all over him, unlike Trump. Enough to make you sick when they overdue it.

          Personally, could not care less either way. Always preferred substance over style. Git ‘er done!

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