KGI expects Apple to see all-time record iPhone demand in 2017; wireless charging on all next-gen iPhone models

“Apple is ramping for its biggest iPhone sales success ever next year, according to KGI,” Benjamin Mayo reports for 9to5Mac. “Its estimates suggest that the new iPhones in 2017, expected to comprise three new models, will empower Apple growth with ‘unprecedented’ demand. KGI expects the new phones may sell between 120-150 million units in the second half of next year, eclipsing the previous sales record set by iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus.”

“The new form-factor premium OLED iPhone will likely encourage high-end customers to upgrade their device and the low-end new 4.7-inch iPhone model (with wireless charging and a glass chassis) will be attractive to the lower-end of the smartphone market,” Mayo reports. “KGI reiterates what the firm has said before, in that Apple will debut three new iPhones in 2017: one major redesign (colloquially dubbed ‘iPhone 8’) and two iterative updates to the existing 4.7-inch iPhone 7 and 5.5-inch iPhone 7 Plus.”

Mayo reports, “The report says that wireless charging will feature on all models, making the ‘less-exciting’ devices still very compelling for consumers.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Boom times are a-comin’ – setting the stage for 2018’s “tough compare.”

SEE ALSO:
Analyst: Apple’s next-gen 5.8-inch OLED iPhone to have 5.1-5.2-inch active display area – November 17, 2016
Apple granted US Patent for transparent glass iPhone with wraparound display, virtual buttons – March 4, 2014
Apple patent application reveals iPhone with curved, wraparound display – March 28, 2013

3 Comments

  1. Apple?

    Apple?

    Oh-yes, the phone company that used to make computers for professionals. Think they called it the Mac Pro.

    Nevertheless, will buy an iPhone in 2017. Should be better than my 4S.

    1. Agreed.

      Upgraded to SE from 4S in March the first day of debut.

      Look forward to what Apple has in store for the 10th Anniversary edition. Fingers crossed they do not abandon a small form factor phone.

  2. He also claimed that this December 2016 quarter would have around 75M iPhone sales. This figure matches the sales from last year, which I think is absolute hogwash.

    Last night was day 74 iPhone 7/7 Plus sales. The usage percentage according to Mixpanel was 18%. Last year on day 74 (December 7, 2015) the usage of 6s/6s Plus iPhones was 12.19%. So, this year is 5.81% higher than last year over the same number of days.

    The end of the quarter last year was on December 26th 2015, and on that day the iPhone 6s/6s Plus usage was 15.3%. This means they did 3.11% between December 7th and December 26th (20 days). This current December quarter has 33 days left.

    Every year the number of iPhones being used by the public, businesses, etc. has increased. Last year my estimated base when calculating Mixpanel usage at this point in the cycle was around 390M. This year it’s around 465M. The last year usage of 15.3% (less 2.48% from the September quarter) times 390M equals 50M iPhone 6s/6s Plus. I’m supposing there was about 8M in channel and they sold another 17M of older iPhones. This totals 75M sold in the December quarter last year.

    This year the usage with 33 days left in the quarter is 18% (less 3.91% In the September quarter) times 465M equals 65.5M. I’m assuming there will be 15 million in channel or older phones like the SE sold. Adding the 7’s with the other phones equals 81.5 million with 33 days left in the quarter.

    This is obviously MUCH more than what some analysts are spouting. This means these analysts are either tragically way off the mark, Mixpanel has greatly altered their reporting mechanism, or Apple is losing millions upon millions of customers.

    First, the amount of customers Apple would have to lose to match 75M will be examined. The Mixpanel percentages and my base estimates for the September 2016 quarter match fairly well with the iPhone sales in the September 2016 quarter. This means Apple would have to lose a significant amount of customers in this December 2016 quarter for the 75M to be legitimate.

    With 33 days left in the December quarter I’m projecting Apple will sell another 3.5% iPhone 7/7 Plus. This added to the 18% already achieved less the September 2016 quarter of 3.91% equals 17.59%. Multiply that final percentage by 465M, and there should be 82M 7/7 Plus iPhones sold in the December quarter. Add in the 15M other and the total number iPhones sold in the December quarter should be around 97M.

    At the beginning of the quarter I’m estimating the iPhone base was around 450M. I arrived at this number based on the gain in the 6s, etc. usage in the September quarter, and then compared that to reported sales. For Apple to sell 75M iPhones in the December quarter the equation to calculate the base would be: 15M other + (17.59% * z) = 75M. The variable z equals around a 340M base. This means Apple would have to lose 115M iPhone customers since the beginning of the quarter for the 75M to be viable. This is completely unrealistic.

    Another way to look at this: I had around 310-320M as the ending base two years ago. If the 75M number is legit then this means after around 420-440M iPhone sales over the past two years Apple has only increased the base by 20-30M. Again, that is unrealistic. My estimated iPhone base of 465M when calculating Mixpanel usage is much more believable.

    Could Mixpanel have completely changed their reporting method, or have they been hacked? Is this the reason why the iPhone 7/7 Plus usage percentage so high? Since Mixpanel just records what type of phone is being used on an app, site, etc. I’m going to assume it’s fairly accurate. There could be ways to spoof the percentage by using bots or something, but they probably have those records filtered out. Plus, any attempt to alter the records would have to take place this quarter, since the other quarters are fairly accurate when comparing it to actual sales. Mixpanel is a free and paid service, so I’m going to assume they are not going risk losing their reputation by reporting altered or exaggerated numbers.

    In conclusion, Some of the analysts saying Apple will only sell 75M iPhones in this December 2016 quarter are either not being accurate and/or honest. What is occurring with the Mixpanel usage numbers is the same as what occurred in the December of 2014 and the March 2015 quarters. The majority of analysts in those quarters were way too low in their estimates. They missed by MANY millions. I’m betting they are doing the same or worse this quarter.

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