iPhone predictions based on supply chain ‘concerns’ prove to be wrong yet again

“Halfway through the last quarter, supply chain rumors of iPhone production cuts — purportedly ’30 percent’ of some unknown number — snowballed into an abominable snow-boogeyman of conjecture that claimed the end to iPhone growth was nigh and speculated about a downhill implosion of Apple’s sales overall, an embarrassing lack of interest in Apple’s newest iPhone 6s and a rapid evaporation of the world’s most valuable company,” Daniel Eran Dilger writes for AppleInsider. “They were wrong.”

“Impressed by some unsubstantiated supply chain rumors and supplier profitability concerns, a series of ostensibly legitimate media outlets began suggesting that Apple’s March fiscal Q2 could see something like a 30 percent drop in iPhone sales, and that Apple likely wouldn’t even be able to meet its guidance for the December quarter, resulting in a “Peak iPhone” milestone marking the date where Apple’s iPhone sales would never again grow, for the first time in the illustrious eight year run of Apple’s smartphone,” Dilger writes. “However, everything about these predictions were wrong. Not just “wrong” as in dramatically exaggerated, but wrong as in fundamentally incorrect, myopically ignorant and distractingly deceptive.”

Dilger writes, “In Apple’s fiscal Q1 earnings call, its chief executive Tim Cook outlined what was really happening, although it appears many journalists would prefer to continue believing the incorrect story they made up on their own.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Well, Daniel, how else are the crooked analysts going to foment AAPL churn in order to gin up commissions if they don’t lie about Apple by pretending to misread so-called “data” while feigning “concern?”

Apple analysts are crying wolf – yet again – January 20, 2016
Growth funds dumping Apple stock on anticipated iPhone sales decline – January 16, 2016
Apple: Analysts’ price targets are tumbling – January 8, 2016
Real world iPhone 6s adoption data contradicts Apple analysts’ so-called ‘supplier channel checks’ – January 7, 2016
Top-rated analyst: Apple’s iPhone business is healthy – January 7, 2016
Apple falls for third day as so-called ‘iPhone woes’ trim $40 billion in value – January 7, 2016
Apple stock price tumbles 3% in premarket, now trades well below $100 – January 7, 2016
Apple stock slumps near $100 amid ‘iPhone sales worries’ – January 6, 2016
Wall Street’s freak out over declining iPhone sales is overblown – January 6, 2016
Piper Jaffray: Apple’s iPhone production cut do not necessarily presage sales decline – January 6, 2016
Foxconn plans ‘rare’ holiday as iPhone output fears rattle investors – January 6, 2016


  1. However, everything about these predictions were wrong. Not just “wrong” as in dramatically exaggerated, but wrong as in fundamentally incorrect, myopically ignorant and distractingly deceptive.”

    1. “Everything about these predictions _was_ wrong.” A singular plural noun (like ‘everything’) takes the single case of the verb. If I don’t point it out, others may follow incorrectly. Sorry.

      However, I agree wholeheartedly w the point being made !!!

  2. I think “supply chain checks” are like political polling and both are purposely used to distort reality and influence people rather than show them the truth.

  3. Daniel Eran Dilger nails it once again. There is an agenda behind the so-called analysis of Apple the company. Perhaps it’s hedge funds, as Jobs mentioned several years ago. They have an ability to make money when the market moves, up or down, so it is in their interest to make sure that happens. DED’s analysis exposes the lazy or agenda-driven analysts for what they are.

  4. Ths is not just about churn. It is also market manipulation by short sellers and others that benefit from AAPL dropping. If they are actually ever at the wheel, the SEC is not around this. Never has been. If the SEC does not have the teeth to deal with this type of fraud, it is time that they be given it by the Congressional mafiosa.

  5. Article is well written and thoughtful. Supply chain reports may have some degree of accuracy given that Apple is bringing out a new 4″ iPhone, and thus, some of the 6s will be supplanted by the new 4″.

    Only bothersome omission is the lack of innovation on the iPad. iPad, until the pro, really hasn’t changed much. It hasn’t gotten much in the way of new features, uses. It’s been floundering, which is why it has an upgrade cycle a lot like a PC.

    Looking for Apple to introduce some nice new capabilities in March.

    1. PS, did upgrade my 5 year old iPad2 to an iPad Air 2 this holiday season, but would not have without the $125 Best Buy discount. Only reason was because iPad2 on iOS9 no longer just worked. Browser crashes were many and common, slow, very slow speeds. I’ll likely not upgrade iOS on the Air2 to try to keep it working well into the future.

  6. And many of us knew it. How many people here pointed out the invalidity of drawing inferences from so-called “supply checks” ? Allowing large banks and investment groups roil markets and spoil a company’s good name …with whispers, rumors, innuendo, and guesses is just not right.

    What the analysts did to AAPL is tantamount to finding someone guilty of a crime on the basis of an unnamed, unknown, source. Please, SEC, regulators, politicians, someone — do something to make the analysts accountable for their pronouncements. Maybe disallow all profits on trades relating to bad analyst calls, at least until the bad call is publicly withdrawn.

    It all started with Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, as I recall.

    Nothing like naming names and keeping scorecards to help keep people and investment groups honest.

  7. 1) although I agree with AppleInsider about the analysts being wrong and always having a negative opinion of Apple I must also point ask ..

    .. so what is Apple PR doing?

    Apple P.E is so low like a third one third Goog/alphabet , i.e if it had Goog’s P.E aapl would be $300 now.
    Low P.E means earnings is good but big investors ‘FAITH’ in Apple is LOW.

    Building apple’s reputation and the belief that Apple is succeeding is the responsibility of Apple management through their P.R .

    Apple can’t depend or excuse this low reputation on ‘analyst idiocy or hatred’, it’s up to Apple to BUILD UP THIS REPUTATION .

    I’ve read so many articles and posts like Dilger’s article which follows the theme : ‘analysts don’t get it’ or ‘THIS is what Tim Cook MEANT to say’ ETC.

    WHY IS THIS? , shouldn’t Apple Management via PR actually explain CLEARLY, boost and build up Apple’s reputation and investors confidence? LIke what Bezos does for Amazon?

    I understand they can’t say some stuff due to secrecy but here like what Dilger is doing .. AFTER the results are put out can’t they point out CLEARLY how wrong analysts were (sometimes Apple bosses mumble a bit but it’s not loud like Bezos would have done)? they should also ACT more CONFIDENT of future prospects . You don’t have to disclose too much ‘secrets’ you just need presentation skills and charisma (which is sorely lacking without Jobs). So many investment blog posts say Tim Cook sounded down and deflated during the last earnings call and overly cautious. This makes big investors really nervous.

    Haters can flame me (again) but I say one more time as I’ve said before : Apple PR today SUCKS.

    I can show this easier with products:
    when the Apple Watch was launched and the stock ran out before the April 24 ADVERTISED launch date, PR/Marketing did nothing: they didn’t change the date, didn’t explain to the press or sooth irate customers (some of whom had travelled miles to the store on apr 24),… etc. i was waiting and waiting for PR to do something, press releases are easy and CHEAP… but zilch. Some time later PR released a video on the San Francisco gay parade. (nothing against gays just pointing out PR’s priorities nowadays)

    other PR boondoggle are like Bono free album into your device, various launch snafus etc.

    ALSO over and over again as people complained about issues like wifi problems etc PR said nothing, no soothing no ‘were working on it ‘ etc . This attitude has improved somewhat recently but still problematic.

    2) Apple also does not ATTACK or warn against MANIPULATIVE ANALYSTS. I remember years back when an analyst posted false reports on RIM (Blackberry), the next day the CEO released a press release where he called out the analyst on ‘manipulation’ and made report to the Canadian govt . and the SEC .

    People like Doug Kass (a hedge fund manager and analyst for CNBC) played aapl like a yo-yo for years with no Apple reaction . Nomura analyst Windsor has knocked Apple stock down several times with obvious fake reports like “Apple iPhone screen Heat Layer will fail in six months” (the iPhone does not use a ‘heat’ layer but conduction, Nomura said they had reports from the company that SOLD the heat tech to Apple ! ) knocking the stock down substantially with ZERO response from Apple. Its so bad Cramer called it the Apple Slingshot. Do we wonder investors are tired getting screwed?

    3) Apple marketing, PR and image building used to be pretty good under Jobs (yes I know he’s DEAD but i can still compare historical facts). There even used to be ‘evangelists’ . Note that long time Apple evangelist Guy Kawasaki joined Google as an evangelist (I believe recently he left). what I’m saying is that Google sends evangelists, management all over talking Google, even when products are COLOSSAL failures like Goog glass these experts manage to SPIN it positive. THAT is one reason why their stock is valued (PE) three times Apple.

    Apple spends 10% the amount companies like Samsung spend on PR Marketing, most people can name several old ad campaigns like Think Different, 1984, Get a Mac (Mac/PC guy) ads in 10 seconds, can anybody in 10 seconds name several Apple campaigns in the last 5 years? Even if you could you would be struggling to picture them. That’s how bad apple PR marketing has become. (also where the Mac ads?)

    Cook has spent 150 billion plus on buybacks and dividends , Apple spends only 1 billion plus a year on PR/Marketing worldwide for all it’s products and services to give people an idea of scale.

    Apple Sells a lot of stuff but it’s due to product quality and word of mouth and not good marketing.

    4) and lastly for people who flame me saying PR/Marketing is useless (“pepsi cola salesmen idiots” ), I ask you when Woz was building the Apple 1 what was Steve Jobs doing? Yep marketing and PR, he was one of the best ever. Today no one is filling his shoes…
    (T.c has hired a now media marketing V.P, lets hope he’s good for products, lets hope they get some genius PR guy — like Bezos — to work on big investors ). I believe apple should be run by ‘tech’ guys but Marketing and PR is an important component to Apple success.

    1. flamers : when I wrote;

      “lets hope they get some genius PR guy — like Bezos — to work on big investors”

      obviously I don’t mean hire ‘Bezos’ but a guy with Bezos talents.

    2. Just read the ‘Tim cook SuperBowl blurry photo’ article.

      sigh… another indication that management doesn’t really get ‘P.R’.

      (what i mean is that blurry photo is ok for ordinary joe but for CEO of Apple where the iPhone makes like 70% of tens of billions of profits… ? )

  8. Everyone should read this article in its entirety. Long, but the details matter. This is all publicly available information that analysts and advisors have an ethical–and legal–duty to provide accurately to their paying clients. That they are distorting the facts so seriously is not just tacky, but arguably criminal.

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