Piper Jaffray: Apple’s iPhone production cut do not necessarily presage sales decline

“Deviating from a bandwagon of media reports interpreting recent supply chain rumors as a harbinger of iPhone’s first year-over-year sales contraction, PiperJaffray analyst Gene Munster believes production estimates have little to do with final reported sales,” Mikey Campbell reports for AppleInsider. “For a more accurate representation, investors should instead look to key data points from Apple itself.”

“‘We believe the December guide implies slight growth of iPhone y/y including CEO Tim Cook’s specific mention that iPhones would grow y/y,’ Munster writes,” Campbell reports. “‘An important factor that is missed in the attention to concerning March data points is that the optimism for iPhone growth improves as comps get easier,’ Munster writes, adding that investors are largely waiting for the upcoming Q1 earnings report to buy. ‘We believe the hyperconcern around the bigger picture that the iPhone franchise is healthy and will benefit over the next several years from the move to annual upgrade programs.'”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote earlier today:

Production has been reduced during the most obvious time to reduce production and, even though Apple’s iPhone has been gaining significant market share in pretty much every region, ignore that and instead, based upon one anonymous source who says Foxconn is only having their usual New Year’s holiday and not working overtime this year, panic and sell.

Makes a lot of sense, huh?

Assembly of “S” model iPhones is easier than non-“S” model iPhones by design. Foxconn could simply have had an easier 4th quarter and made the number of units Apple ordered this year, whereas last year was the first year for “6” model iPhones and therefore Foxconn had a much steeper learning curve.

But, of course, that logical interpretation wouldn’t cause share prices to decline.

Use these transparent manipulations to your advantage.

AAPL is like a buoy. Quick, it’s back on the surface! You there, analyst, and you, too, swim down and tug on the chain! Drag it under… lower, lower… Good! Now, quick, everybody jump on, and we’ll take a ride back up to the top again!MacDailyNews Take, January 9, 2012

As we wrote in April 2012:

At the most basic level, it’s extremely simple: Pump, then dump. Foment, then buy. Rinse, lather, repeat as the SEC sleeps.

SEE ALSO:
Foxconn plans ‘rare’ holiday as iPhone output fears rattle investors – January 6, 2016
Apple to release Q116 earnings, webcast live conference call on January 26th – January 5, 2016

12 Comments

  1. Apple sold 31% fewer iPhones in their 2nd quarter 2015, just last year than in their first quarter, following a pattern as old as the iPhone itself. Why is it such big news that Apple is expected to produce about 30% fewer phones in their 2nd quarter this year?

    Simple, there are a few traders and “analysts” who know how to play the FUD of less sophisticated traders, and even long investors, to make huge profits. If you are long, look at the big picture and Apple fundamentals and hold. If you are a trader, you unfortunately are likely to be the victim of your own emotions.

  2. Duh! Stupid anal-ists trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill. Trying to read in between the lines without Apple actually saying anything. All of of it is B.S. Cook told them the at the last revenue meeting that supply chains and such can change but it doesn’t mean that there is a problem with sales or demand. But did any of these idiots pay attention, no. Just start crapping out the stock without any confirmation on what actually might be happening. Apple will probably announce another record quarter and they will have another dumbass excuse to drop the stock.

  3. It would be nice if Apple will not be susceptible to the scheduled worldwide Recession/Depression of 2016. I doubt it. It managed to do well enough during the last Deep Recession of 2008 however.

    Wall Street will continue to be the enemy of Apple until Apple humbly and openly submits to global surveillance activities. A pox on such activities.

    1. Move to Germany or Japan, Apple. Those countries would be happy and proud of you. Your homeland mistreats you badly. Just keep making a lot of money then buying back all of AAPL. Go private. voila, Wall Street will move on to find its next victim/victims.

  4. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE, fanboys, do not take investment advice from MDN. Invest what you can afford to lose only. And for gods sake, just because you think apple is invincible, don’t assume that messed they are entitled to a certain share price. The market isn’t rational, understand?

    1. That is great, common sense, business 101 advance. For serious investment for your future talk to a financial adviser, keep an eye on what they do, and if something doesn’t feel right find someone else. For playing around, have fun but be prepared to take a loose; it’s gambling! Gambling for intellectuals. Just remember with super computers today the house has a better advantage than Vagas.

  5. Can someone show me proof of production cuts of 30% before the whole world goes on reacting to it as if its a fact for two days and turn everything into chaos.

    One unsubstantiated claim and look what has happened.
    Everyones headlines treats it as a fact….
    The argument is not where is the proof for the claim.
    It is almost taken for granted that the claim is true….

    Then we wonder why its so easy to manipulate stocks..
    We are the reason .. We let billshit go very far..
    We empower bullshitters through our reactions !

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