After record results, here’s what the Apple analysts are saying

“Tim Cook forecasts iPhone sales growth in 2016,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune. “Here are excerpts from the notes we’ve seen.”

While there will continue to be worries around FY16 growth during this 6s product cycle as the “iPhone 6 hangover” thesis remains a lingering cloud over Cupertino’s head, we believe this quarter and guidance proves yet again how much fuel is left in the iPhone engine. Outperform. $175. — Daniel Ives, FBR

Apple guided Dec-15 revenue to $75.5-77.5 billion vs. the Street’s $76.8 billion and our expectation for guidance of $74-77 billion. CEO Tim Cook commented on the earnings call to expect iPhone units up y/y in December. We view this as a relief given investors were bracing for the start of the 6S cycle to be down meaningfully (down 5-8% y/y). Overweight. Raising price target to $179 from $172. — Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray

December quarter guidance implies iPhone unit and revenue growth on the back of 1) strength in emerging markets, including China, 2) continued upgrade cycle, with 69% of users yet to upgrade to larger screens, 3) record Android share gains, and 4) ASP uplift. Each of these factors should continue as iOS takes share in a maturing smartphone market. Our data also indicate Chinese users shifting to better smartphones and more U.S. users plan to upgrade this year than last year. As a result, Apple is expected to take record share in 2016. — Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley

Many more excerpts from the analysts’ notes in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: With smartphones, as with personal computers, it seems that, given time, the cream rises.

Now, do these people realize that these numbers are in the billions of dollars? We are talking about a company planning to generate $75.5-77.5 billion in a single quarter!!! That’s $75.5-77.5 billion generated in roughly 90 days!!! And some of these analysts are niggling over a billion or so + or – difference in the consensus estimate? Puleeze. In other words: It doesn’t matter. Advise your clients to accumulate, then shut up and witness this singular juggernaut roll on, generating cash with historic ferocity, the likes of which this world has never seen.

10 Comments

  1. Apple has created a world where their products are all the technology anyone really needs, while technology is one of the most important and expensive products the average person would typically buy outside of houses, cars, and engagement rings. Of course they’re raking in massive amounts of cash. I don’t want any technology besides Apple (except my 4K tv and my PS4) because everything else is just not good enough and usually outdated, and cheaply implemented garbage that should only be sold at the dollar store.

  2. So Credit Suisse drops their price target to $140 from $145. But raised from $155 to $150 at Barclay’s. And a big-deal “upgrade” at Pacific Crest.

    The “attaboy Apple” stuff will last for about 4 hours today before they start setting unobtanium targets for next quarter and explaining how Apple can’t continue to succeed. But Microsoft – now there’s a stock with potential and where you should put your money.

  3. Analysts have been saying in the past that Apple couldn’t succeed without offering a bunch of ‘netbooks’. Whatever happened to that category? Do they still exist? Oh yeah, they are now called smart phones (or properly, iPhones). Apple’s iPad sales are slowing a bit and could also be considered ‘netbooks’ by the analysts but they are almost always wrong.

  4. Analyst Morons:

    “Apple will get killed because of weakness in the Chinese economy!”

    “Whoops! We were 100% wrong! Apple Chinese business is actually very strong!”

    “We still must see innovation! We are concerned that Apple is a one product company! We are increasing our estimates, but we have major concerns here!”

    “Due to this incredible brilliance, along with our decade long record of being wrong, no, almost incomprehensible about the most profitable company in the world, we ask that you give us more of your money to invest.”

  5. I hope all the shorts take it squarely in the shorts! The products cycle is very strong. iPad pro is going to be a huge hit with students. MBPro is due for big update with skylake processors. Apple TV just got turbocharged and will sell like gangbusters, and more importantly will grow the app ecosystem to a new screen in home. Gaming is going to be another growth area. Disclosure: unapologetically long on Apple…

  6. I’ve always found it amazing that the investors base their actions on the opinions of the “analysts” and that affects the stock.
    Of course one can observe that the “analysts” are folks analyzing Apple stock for it’s investment advice yet these analysts are folks who don’t really work in the industry they are analyzing.

  7. ANALyst will do whatever it takes to make money for themselves, clients and overlords. Most of the stuff that comes out of their mouth is nothing more than vomit. Don’t let your sons and daughters marry an ANALyst. Keep them safe from them. lol

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