“In the absence of any real information, a slew of talking heads have emerged to fill the silence surrounding the fate of Apple’s first new product category in five years, the Apple Watch,” Dawn Chmielewski reports for Re/code.
MacDailyNews Take: “Talking heads,” as in AAPL shorts, fomenting stock manipulators, and hit-whoring hacks.
“Just last week, one research firm that seemingly burst onto the tech scene just to track the Apple Watch reported that online sales had plunged 90 percent since the device’s introduction in April. The report, by Slice Intelligence, was widely credited by the technology and mainstream press as the definitive sign that the Apple Watch is a dud,” Chmielewski reports. “A closer look at the data and a few phone calls tell a different story.”
“Slice’s methodology has its limits. It does not track in-store purchases or global retail sales,” Chmielewski reports. “The firm’s projections of a precipitous drop in sales based entirely on online sales of the Apple Watch roughly correspond with news of the device’s coming availability in stores — on June 17 to pick up online orders, then more broadly on June 26.”
MacDailyNews Take: Um, yeah. Told ya so a week ago:
Ooh, look at that dramatic, oh-so-worrisome “drop-off” that began in mid-June – or precisely when Apple Watch began arriving in Apple Retail Stores. It would seem that Slice is not seeing emailed electronic receipts from Apple Retail Stores to their customers. Shocker. — MacDailyNews Take, July 7th
“We consulted several veteran technology analysts with contacts in Apple’s manufacturing supply chain who claimed Slice’s data does not represent the whole market, and does not correspond to what they’re hearing from supplier sources,” Chmielewski reports. “IDC said the Apple Watch appears to be selling as expected: Following an initial burst of interest from Apple enthusiasts, demand tapered off. But sales continue apace, and appear to be on track to reach about 21.2 million units sold this year.”
MacDailyNews Take: It’s déjà vu all over again:
Don’t all products with massive pent-up demand experience huge launches only to decline significantly once the initial early adopter rush subsides? Yes, of course they do. It’s happened with iMacs. It’s happened with MacBooks. It’s happened with iPods. It’s happened with iPads. And it’s happened with iPhones. It’s normal. Don’t all products with huge supply/demand imbalances see sales declines precisely because when there is limited product to sell, there are limited unit sales? Yes, of course they do. — MacDailyNews Take, July 7th
“Ryan Reith, research director for IDC’s mobile devices team noted that researchers who glean information from one distribution channel fail to get a complete picture,” Chmielewski reports. “‘If you don’t look at all channels, you can certainly miss trends — especially as it shifts to new markets, and as it’s available in different stores,’ Reith said.”
MacDailyNews Take: Yup:
Those who are interested in actually analyzing companies vs. fomenting low-information investor sentiment against them, are those who listen to what Apple’s management tells them: “Even if a particular data point were factual it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business because the supply chain is very complex and we obviously have multiple sources for things, yields might vary, supply performance can vary. The beginning inventory positions can vary, I mean there is just an inordinate long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what’s going on,'” Apple CEO Tim Cook stated on January 23, 2013. — MacDailyNews Take, June 13th
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: This all began with Brett Arends misreading or misusing Slice data to squat out a pile of FUD for MarketWatch on July 7th.
The day Arends’ disinformation was published and began to be requoted by shorts, scam artists, and the not-so-bright, a supply of which is, unfortunately, seemingly endless, we reprinted a little something that Arends scribbled for MarketWatch back in January 2011:
Here’s how it’s going to go down: First, scammers will go into the derivatives market and buy a bunch of put options on Apple shares. Puts are effectively a bet that a stock will drop quickly. Then they’ll send out word that Steve Jobs is terminally ill with cancer and isn’t expected to return to work. Simple. Easy. Free money.
(Above, substitute “Steve Jobs is terminally ill with cancer and isn’t expected to return to work” with “Apple Watch sales plunge 90%.” – MDN Ed.)
The stock will plummet. Nervous investors will bail in panic. The put options will balloon in value… The scam artists will cash out, and walk away. What makes this possible is Apple’s refusal to say anything whatsoever about Jobs’s illness or his absence… Nature abhors a vacuum. And if Apple won’t offer details, that leaves the door wide open for others.
(Above, substitute “about Jobs’s illness or his absence” with “Apple Watch sales.” – MDN Ed.)
That same day, on June 7th, we advised MacDailyNews readers: “Brett sees the door wide open, an information vacuum into which he’ll happily take a dump. Don’t fall for his shit.”
In closing, we’d like to leave you with this little gem:
Beyond all the iHype and iMania, let’s get one thing clear. The iPhone isn’t the future. It isn’t a revolutionary mobile device ushering in a new era. – Brett Arends, TheStreet.com, June 29, 2007
Brett Arends makes John Dvorak and Rob Enderle look like paragons of journalism.
Apple Watch volumes are much better than Slice Intelligence figures suggest – July 13, 2015
Apple Watch naysayers in a baseless feeding frenzy – July 13, 2015
Why Apple must sell one Apple Watch for every 20 iPhones or something – July 13, 2015
Apple Watch online sales in the U.S. estimated at 3 million through first 3 months – July 13, 2015
The Apple Watch demand FUD is out of control – July 9, 2015
MarketWatch hack claims ‘Apple Watch sales plunge 90%’ – July 7, 2015
Apple to release Q315 earnings, webcast live conference call on July 21st – June 29, 2015
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Fred Mertz” and “Dan K.” for the heads up.]