Reports of Apple Watch’s death have been greatly exaggerated

“In the absence of any real information, a slew of talking heads have emerged to fill the silence surrounding the fate of Apple’s first new product category in five years, the Apple Watch,” Dawn Chmielewski reports for Re/code.

MacDailyNews Take: “Talking heads,” as in AAPL shorts, fomenting stock manipulators, and hit-whoring hacks.

“Just last week, one research firm that seemingly burst onto the tech scene just to track the Apple Watch reported that online sales had plunged 90 percent since the device’s introduction in April. The report, by Slice Intelligence, was widely credited by the technology and mainstream press as the definitive sign that the Apple Watch is a dud,” Chmielewski reports. “A closer look at the data and a few phone calls tell a different story.”

“Slice’s methodology has its limits. It does not track in-store purchases or global retail sales,” Chmielewski reports. “The firm’s projections of a precipitous drop in sales based entirely on online sales of the Apple Watch roughly correspond with news of the device’s coming availability in stores — on June 17 to pick up online orders, then more broadly on June 26.”

MacDailyNews Take: Um, yeah. Told ya so a week ago:

Ooh, look at that dramatic, oh-so-worrisome “drop-off” that began in mid-June – or precisely when Apple Watch began arriving in Apple Retail Stores. It would seem that Slice is not seeing emailed electronic receipts from Apple Retail Stores to their customers. Shocker. — MacDailyNews Take, July 7th

“We consulted several veteran technology analysts with contacts in Apple’s manufacturing supply chain who claimed Slice’s data does not represent the whole market, and does not correspond to what they’re hearing from supplier sources,” Chmielewski reports. “IDC said the Apple Watch appears to be selling as expected: Following an initial burst of interest from Apple enthusiasts, demand tapered off. But sales continue apace, and appear to be on track to reach about 21.2 million units sold this year.”

MacDailyNews Take: It’s déjà vu all over again:

Don’t all products with massive pent-up demand experience huge launches only to decline significantly once the initial early adopter rush subsides? Yes, of course they do. It’s happened with iMacs. It’s happened with MacBooks. It’s happened with iPods. It’s happened with iPads. And it’s happened with iPhones. It’s normal. Don’t all products with huge supply/demand imbalances see sales declines precisely because when there is limited product to sell, there are limited unit sales? Yes, of course they do.MacDailyNews Take, July 7th

“Ryan Reith, research director for IDC’s mobile devices team noted that researchers who glean information from one distribution channel fail to get a complete picture,” Chmielewski reports. “‘If you don’t look at all channels, you can certainly miss trends — especially as it shifts to new markets, and as it’s available in different stores,’ Reith said.”

MacDailyNews Take: Yup:

Those who are interested in actually analyzing companies vs. fomenting low-information investor sentiment against them, are those who listen to what Apple’s management tells them: “Even if a particular data point were factual it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business because the supply chain is very complex and we obviously have multiple sources for things, yields might vary, supply performance can vary. The beginning inventory positions can vary, I mean there is just an inordinate long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what’s going on,'” Apple CEO Tim Cook stated on January 23, 2013. — MacDailyNews Take, June 13th

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: This all began with Brett Arends misreading or misusing Slice data to squat out a pile of FUD for MarketWatch on July 7th.

The day Arends’ disinformation was published and began to be requoted by shorts, scam artists, and the not-so-bright, a supply of which is, unfortunately, seemingly endless, we reprinted a little something that Arends scribbled for MarketWatch back in January 2011:

Here’s how it’s going to go down: First, scammers will go into the derivatives market and buy a bunch of put options on Apple shares. Puts are effectively a bet that a stock will drop quickly. Then they’ll send out word that Steve Jobs is terminally ill with cancer and isn’t expected to return to work. Simple. Easy. Free money.

(Above, substitute “Steve Jobs is terminally ill with cancer and isn’t expected to return to work” with “Apple Watch sales plunge 90%.” – MDN Ed.)

The stock will plummet. Nervous investors will bail in panic. The put options will balloon in value… The scam artists will cash out, and walk away. What makes this possible is Apple’s refusal to say anything whatsoever about Jobs’s illness or his absence… Nature abhors a vacuum. And if Apple won’t offer details, that leaves the door wide open for others.

(Above, substitute “about Jobs’s illness or his absence” with “Apple Watch sales.” – MDN Ed.)

That same day, on June 7th, we advised MacDailyNews readers: “Brett sees the door wide open, an information vacuum into which he’ll happily take a dump. Don’t fall for his shit.”

In closing, we’d like to leave you with this little gem:

Beyond all the iHype and iMania, let’s get one thing clear. The iPhone isn’t the future. It isn’t a revolutionary mobile device ushering in a new era. – Brett Arends,, June 29, 2007

Brett Arends makes John Dvorak and Rob Enderle look like paragons of journalism.

Apple Watch volumes are much better than Slice Intelligence figures suggest – July 13, 2015
Apple Watch naysayers in a baseless feeding frenzy – July 13, 2015
Why Apple must sell one Apple Watch for every 20 iPhones or something – July 13, 2015
Apple Watch online sales in the U.S. estimated at 3 million through first 3 months – July 13, 2015
The Apple Watch demand FUD is out of control – July 9, 2015
MarketWatch hack claims ‘Apple Watch sales plunge 90%’ – July 7, 2015
Apple to release Q315 earnings, webcast live conference call on July 21st – June 29, 2015

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Fred Mertz” and “Dan K.” for the heads up.]


    1. Brett Arends’ piece has become fodder for a massive internet reverberation machine PLUS False word of mouth ammunition for all Apple haters. I have to eat my lunches with one of those. He repeatedly quotes Arends’ headline no matter what I say with FACTS to dismiss it.😡😖😩😰😱⌚️

      1. Yes and those types dismiss any attempt at Apple defense as desperate as if there are no explanations and “Apple is cornered at last.” They however will be eating crow for lunch as Apple continues successively unabated and then they just quiet down until the next unwarranted attack or claim and do their Foghorn Leghorn bit.

        You should make that guy put his money where his mouth is and put a bet on it based on Apple’s ACTUAL numbers. Upon losing he might think twice a bit more skeptically in the future having his wallet take a hit.

        1. Making him put his money where is mouth is … is a good idea, although I’d not make it a one-on-one office bet: have him put his dollars into the stock market based on his convications – – particularly since every day that he doesn’t pony up (supposedly its “easy money”, right smartguy?), one can harass him for not putting his wallet behind his mouth.

          1. And then as history and actual market sales are released you can toss those back in his face too immediately. These guys just want to slam their BS home and love the chewing satisfaction immediacy of a false headline but rarely enjoy revisiting the subject later with subsequent shameful and making-them-look-like-a-doofus corrections.

            But you can’t ever let up on them. Just letting falsehoods continually slip by feeds an overall negative Apple perception over time if not held in check. Basically we can’t let these goofs feed their Apple Hating biases. Instead they must starve until they submit! 🙂

  1. > But sales continue apace, and appear to be on track to reach about 21.2 million units sold this year.

    If that’s the current pace of sales, Apple will sell at least 30 million by year end. After strong marketing at product launch, Apple is currently not trying very hard to push Apple Watch. Apple is waiting for WatchOS 2 to come pre-installed. The marketing push starts again. At about the same time, Apple releases the new iPhones, bringing a rush of customers into Apple Stores. They see Apple Watch prominently displayed, as iPhone’s companion. The holiday shopping season sustains sales through the end of 2015.

  2. In the real world, you can’t turn a frog into a prince.

    The Apple Watch is poorly made, ill thought out, overpriced, unnecessary, pointless, and uttery useless.

    You can’t spin this manure into gold (no pun intended).

    Those kind of things just don’t change overnight!

    1. Hmmm, “Those kind of things just don’t change overnight!” and I guess neither do Trolls like you. Not sure if you are working out of your mom’s basement or fomenting stock or paid by samsung, but the quality of writing is so poor, it really does not matter.

      PS, it is pretty obvious that while Taylor Swift did actually write her letter to Apple, you do not have that level of ability. Then again, she is the CEO of her own very successful company.
      Just saying.

  3. Don’t worry, Apple Watch will be a huge success, everybody will own one and millions will find them indispensable. Then one day you’ll wake to find Apple just abandoned it, with no explanation, as it moves on to the next flavour of the month. It does this with nearly everything it makes, expecting loyalty from its customers but never extending that loyalty back to them. Never mind the millions of users and the millions of man hours invested in the product by users, just “thats it, see ya!”

    You’ve made some bitter enemies from once loyal users Apple.

  4. OK Apple Watch is and will continue to do fine!

    But ya gotta admit Apple Car Sales must be slowing! i haven’t even seen one this past week! Nothing like eye witness on the spot evidence! Apple is doomed!

  5. I suspect the truth lies somewhere in-between. I’ve always felt the Apple Watch will be a success, but it will be the success of a marathon runner rather than a sprinter. You’re not going to see those iPhone-like bursts of sales, but a steady even clip that is going to gradually keep speeding up.

  6. When you think of it, it’s more then a little ridiculous to look at your $400 Apple Watch to see who’s calling just to save you the trouble of digging your $700 iPhone form your pocket or purse.

      1. The Apple Watch needs the iPhone to work. There isn’t anything the watch does that the iPhone doesn’t do. The same for other similar devices. It’s just another way of taking your money.

  7. It’s kind of sad to realize there are so many people out there happily hoping for some Apple product to fail or Apple to fail. It’s almost like hoping Boeing doesn’t sell enough of its Dreamliner to the airline carriers. What good does something like that do. I doubt it does very few people any good when a business goes bad. There would have to be a chain of negative repercussions. I’m not happy to see Microsoft’s Nokia business fail when I know there are going to be a lot of people being put out of their jobs.

    I suppose Slice Intelligence must have something to gain in giving out misinformation, but I think if they’re so far off in projecting AppleWatch sales, then they wouldn’t be useful as being a reliable source and that would only hurt their future credibility and business.

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