Apple Inc. is expected to sell a sizeable number of iPhones within the first 12 months at retail,” Louis Bedigian reports for Benzinga.
Analysts’ estimates range from 8 million to 42 million units within the first 12 months.
“‘Put it in the context of how many iPhones they’ll sell,’ former hedge fund manager Cody Willard told Benzinga. Apple sold more than 190 million units in 2014,” Bedigian reports. “‘They have to sell one Apple Watch for every 20 iPhones to hit a 10 million unit number,’ said Willard, estimating that Apple will sell roughly 200 million iPhones in 2015. ‘I think that’s an awfully high order. I don’t think one out of every 20 people buying an iPhone are buying an Apple Watch.'”
“Willard doesn’t think Apple’s silence on Apple Watch sales means that it has something to hide. ‘I don’t think Apple’s hiding something,’ said Willard,” Bedigian reports. “‘It’s about the next 18 months to two years,’ he said. ‘It’s not [about] this month or next summer. I would be cautious about… this quarter’s results on the Apple Watch.'”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Apple Watch is compatible with iPhone 5, iPhone 5c, iPhone 5s, iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. Morgan Stanley estimates there is an installed base of 315 million iPhone 5 or newer users exiting 2014 plus another 200 million iPhones in 2015 which equals an addressable market for Apple Watch of 515 million. To hit 10 million units, that’s one Apple Watch out of every 51.5 iPhones, not 20.
If Apple sticks to their initial plan, there won’t be any Apple Watch unit sales results when Q315 earnings are announced on July 21st about.
Last October, Apple stated very clearly that they would not be reporting Apple Watch sales figures:
We’ll be creating a new reporting category called other products. This will encompass everything we report in the accessories category today, including Beats headphones and speakers, Apple TV, and peripherals and accessories for iPhone, iPad, Mac, and iPod. In addition, we’ll begin to include iPod sales in the other products category, and we will also reflect sales of Apple Watch in this line item once it begins shipping in early calendar 2015. — Nancy Paxton, Apple’s Senior Director of Investor Relations, October 2014
I’m not very anxious in reporting a lot of numbers on Apple Watch… because our competitors are looking for it. – Apple CEO Tim Cook, October 2014
Apple Watch online sales in the U.S. estimated at 3 million through first 3 months – July 13, 2015
Apple to release Q315 earnings, webcast live conference call on July 21st – June 29, 2015
Morgan Stanley: 10% of iPhone 5 and higher owners will buy an Apple Watch – November 20, 2014