Apple Watch on Its way to being bigger than iPhone

“While its initial sales were not as high as iPhone or iPad, according to research from Morgan Stanley, the post-launch demand for the Watch has been higher than its sister products,” Daniel B. Kline writes for The Motley Fool. “Ubergizmo examined that research and offered the following analysis: ‘The company tracked interest of the original iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch in its first 5-6 weeks of launch and found that the iPhone managed to garner the most interest at the start, followed by the iPad, and then the Apple Watch. However as the weeks progressed, interest in the original iPhone started to decline rather sharply and around the fourth week, it was overtaken by the Apple Watch.'”

“Apple Watch looks to be a slow build,” Kline writes. “With Apple Watch, the company has a new product entirely where consumer curiosity is high simply because it’s a new Apple product, but demand may track to word of mouth. As more people see their friends with the watch and experience it themselves, more will want it.”

“The company could sell as many as 36 million smartwatches in the first year, according to revised predictions from Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who is raising her Apple Watch sales forecast by 20% from the earlier figure of 30 million CNET reported,” Kline writes. That blows early iPhone sales out of the water and suggest a strong future for the watch.””

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote on April 15th:

The general public doesn’t get it, yet. It’s too early. Let the early adopters do what they do so well.

As we wrote on Apple 9th:

[This survey showing that 9% of people with an iPhone intend to buy the Apple Watch was conducted] before Apple Watch lands on the wrists of friends and coworkers. That percentage will rise dramatically after Apple Watch launches. In a survey of 3,489 people conducted in April 2007, two months before Apple launched something called the “iPhone,” ChangeWave found that 9% said they were likely to buy an iPhone once it became available. Extrapolate.

As we wrote on March 27th:

Just like the tens of millions who said they didn’t want or need an iPhone, who are now on their fifth iPhone, so it’ll go with Apple Watch.

And as we wrote on March 3rd:

As people see others using Apple Pay via their Apple Watches, the device will sell itself.

SEE ALSO:
Morgan Stanley: Apple Watch consumer interest outperforming the original iPhone – June 24, 2015

27 Comments

  1. FWIW, Marketwatch has an article this morning that has talking heads chattering. Basically:

    “Sales of the new Apple Watch have plunged by 90% since the opening week, according to a new market research report.

    Apple has been selling fewer than 20,000 watches a day in the U.S. since the initial surge in April, and on some days fewer than 10,000, according to data from Slice Intelligence, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based market research company.

    That is a sharp decline from week of the April 10 launch, when Apple sold about 1.5 million watches, or an average of about 200,000 a day, Slice estimates.”

    That’ll explain the stock’s move down this morning.

    1. It makes total sense to me. I haven’t seen one single Apple Watch being worn by anyone other than celebrities that got them for free in a pathetic KOL marketing ploy by Apple. I can see the meeting “Give one to Beyoncé and she will make people want the product.” Umm… yeah no. I’m pretty sure Beyoncé listens to Tidal and that doesn’t seem to be working either. Pointless, superfluous this device is.

      1. I greatly value my Apple Watch Sport. I bought it a Milanese band for being so awesome. It makes enough things better, like rolling the crown to adjust volume level for music rather than repeatedly pushing buttons, that I’d rather not ever be without it. Apple Pay with the Apple Watch makes the cashiers squeal with delight.

  2. To be fair, it can not be bigger than iPhone since it is iPhone’s accessory.

    Up to 10-20 percent of iPhone users consider buying Apple Watch some time in the future — which could convert to nine digit number of AW sales in quantity, but, of course, it is far from iPhone’s sales.

    1. It’s “possible” in the near term, because Apple Watch is compatible with more than three years worth of accumulated iPhone sales by the time its first year is over.

      If EVERY (or even 20% of) current iPhone owners wanted an Apple Watch, and Apple could produce that many in a quarter, Apple would sell more Apple Watches that quarter compared to iPhone. But since the maximum conceivable production rate of Apple Watch during its first year is likely to be less than 20 million per quarter, there would be no way for Apple Watch to come close to iPhone in unit sales. Even in a “slow” quarter, Apple is now selling more than 50 million iPhones. 🙂

    2. It’s only sort of an “accessory” for the first 6 months. Plus it does a lot without the iPhone even now. To call it an iPhone accessory is to minimize the significance of owning a Wrist Computer with the power of TWO iPhone 4S es. Plus when is anyone without their iPhone in the first place? So what if it needs an iPhone to blossom? The implication is that it’s redundant which it most certainly is not.😖

  3. No way the watch becomes bigger than the phone.

    I work in a high-tech engineering department in a building with hundreds of engineers – software, electrical, circuit design and so on – and I have yet to see even ONE Apple Watch on anyone here.

    I’m sure there are a few, and I’ve just missed seeing them. But in an area where smartphones, iPads, and high end laptops are on every single desk you would think I’d be surrounded by them.

    1. You are right.

      This exact market you’ve just describe is the actual opposite of what Apple has been aiming for the Watch.

      My guess is Apple marketing works.

      Your engineers will buy the iPad Pro.

      1. Ummmm, no.

        Well-paid gadget-oriented people are NOT the type of customer Apple is aiming for? Seriously?

        Sure, they will buy the iPad Pro. If you look around me, they buy almost everything Apple produces.

        But no Apple Watches that I’ve seen.

  4. I work in a building with a little over 100 people total with about 25 being IT. Three Watches (all Space Gray sport), all in IT, all by employees with a pro-Apple bias. Many in IT would not be caught dead with an Apple product, especially since we are a Microsoft shop. Several others have shown interest, but not enough to buy. Most consider $400 too much for a watch. Most don’t realize it is primarily a notification agent rather than a watch.

  5. I know a lower income iPhone 6 owner who is saving up to buy an WATCH in December in conjunction with Christmas present cash. So it’s far too soon to judge the real demand which I believe will surge in the fourth holiday quarter and become a tsunami oh demand next year – especially when the next model ships for all the “wait for version 2” types plus all of we earliest adopters who plan to buy version 2 too.

    Then you have watchOS 3 in September 2016. WATCH demand is gonna get crazy then. I started my iPhone life in 2008 with an iPhone 3G. Similar situation now except everything that was not in place for the original iPhone in 2007 is already in place for the WATCH now. So in that sense waiting for version 2 is not necessary nor advised. But the negative nellies are everywhere right now. I think I’ve never seen so many false reports of doom and gloom about an obviously hit product before until I remember the iMac, iPod, iPhone, iPad and now WATCH. It’s déjà vu all over again isn’t it?😱⌚️😘

  6. I don’t quite see how this headline can be true. All the articles point to AppleWatch as already being a failed product (Tim Cook’s Folly). Supposedly, no one except hipsters and fadsters would wear an AppleWatch. Some people are already comparing it to Google Glass. I rarely see any favorable articles about AppleWatch. Wall Street hates it and hates Tim Cook for selling it. Ever since AppleWatch was introduced, Apple’s share price has sunk. Maybe it’s a coincidence but Wall Street says poor AppleWatch sales are causing it. Everyone either wants or expects AppleWatch to fail for various reasons.

    I don’t know if any of those articles are true and I’m simply going to wait to see what Apple says upon Q3 earnings. Apparently, the smartwatch market is going to be very tough to crack and I doubt it can be compared to smartphone sales. It will have to be weighed on its own merits as a new category. I don’t believe Apple made a mistake selling AppleWatch. Every product doesn’t have to be an instant hit to be worthwhile. I think it’s still to early to tell whether a large number of consumers will take to wearing one. I’m quite curious if current AppleWatch sales, so far, are at least meeting Apple’s internal expectations. If they are, then I’m satisfied.

  7. I have one, love it, and feel naked without it. In the U.S. it will be a great holiday gift. Many who comment on my watch say “I have a birthday coming,” or “I know what I’ll be asking for for Christmas.” I also believe China will be a huge market for the watch.

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