Munster: Apple may score on watch… someday

“Consumers are not yet sure what to make of the Apple Watch, and sales might not ramp up until 2016, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster told CNBC’s “Squawk Alley” on Monday,” Tom DiChristopher reports for CNBC.

“A Piper Jaffray survey shows just 7 percent of iPhone users intend to buy an Apple Watch when the product launches next year,” DiChristopher reports. “That compares with about 35 percent of iPhone users who said they would buy an iPad after seeing the tablet in action, Munster said.”

“He reiterated Piper Jaffray’s expectation that Apple will sell about 10 million watches during the product’s first year on the market. That compares to Street expectations of 15 million, while supply chain feedback suggests 20 million units could sell, said Munster,” DiChristopher reports. “‘At the end of the day, these interest levels are so minuscule that its hard to put (out) more optimistic numbers,’ he said.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: People don’t know enough about Apple Watch yet. And from what they do know, they do not yet understand why they will be buying an Apple Watch sooner than later.

26 Comments

  1. Even seven percent will translate into fourteen million watches (only if you take new iPhone sales, not all of owners with compatible iPhones), about seven billion USD. For comparison, the biggest watch company in the world, Swatch Group (Swiss) has sales about nine billion USD.

    However, Apple’s sales can go noticeably higher than that.

    1. I love Apple products and still have too many, like a Mac SE 30, an 8500 and a PowerPC Mac Pro. Not to mention a few newer ones. Had an Apple II+. Maybe 15-20 Apple products in the house. I just don’t wear a watch. Period.

    2. It’s a sick world where Idiot Munster thinks his low-ball projection of ONLY seven billion dollars is a catastrophic failure. How many companies would love to make seven billion in a year?

      However, like many others, I think sales will be much higher.

      1. Did he say they were a “catastrophic failure”? He said sales might not ramp up until 2016 which implies he think its success is a forgone conclusion, just not instant.

  2. I buy everything Apple starting back when I bought my first Power PC 8100.

    This watch seems like a product in search of a market. I have zero interest in buying it.

      1. These pricks are getting so desperate for clicks, they’re just writing nonsensical articles. Since when does anyone write articles about non-shipping products? I’m sure there must be enough shipping products to write about. As a consumer, how can I possibly form a rational opinion about a product I don’t have. Sure, the AppleWatch info is on the Apple website but little has changed and it could be all marketing hype. Let’s at least wait until someone has some actual long-term use with one.

    1. Know what you mean. I didn’t “get” the iPod till I could actually hold one and use it.

      As a jogger I’m interested in a Watch when it gets standalone GPS and music functionality. Otherwise I’m not sure I’d care.

      1. I wouldn’t count on any GPS unit being in the AppleWatch for quite some time. I can only assume battery life would be abysmal unless Apple is going to surprise us with some new battery tech. I’d be happy if Apple sold some separate GPS module with it’s own battery and such. I really would like the functionality of a GPS unit but I’m afraid I’ll have to look elsewhere.

  3. I buy everything apple and can’t wait to replace the watch on my wrist with the new Apple watch. I can’t wait to not pull my phone out of my pocket for notifications.

    1. My mother-in-law has a problem that she doesn’t hear her iPhone ring when it’s in her purse or sometimes in her pocket. She has changed the ringtone to a loud, obnoxious antique telephone ring, but she still misses calls. An Watch would solve that problem for her.

      1. Exactly. I’ve used a Pebble for a year or so. I don’ t use it much at home but when traveling or lecturing or in meetings it is great. I can glance discreetly at a message and if check if it is an emergency or not. Similarly, when attending a trade show or in another noisy environment I often miss calls or texts when my phone is in my pocket.

        As others have noted, we have not yet seen the watch up close with the final software. I can’t wait to see what it really does.

  4. 35% of iPhone owners said they would buy an iPad “AFTER SEEING THE TABLET IN ACTION”.

    Very, very key data to this story. People haven’t seen the Watch in action yet. When they do, I predict a higher percentage than 35% will say they want to buy one.

  5. Funny, not a word about the sure-fire success of the Apple Television Set, coming Real Soon Now.

    “Consumers are not yet sure what to make of the Apple Watch”? Neither are analysts, I suspect.

  6. No one really knows all the things it will be able to do. Once they do, they will sell fast and furious.

    My watchband broke. Decided not to pay the $2 to fix it but to wait and buy a $350 Watch. How many people out there are like me? A lot. Trust me- they know what they’re doing…

  7. I will make the incredibly BOLD prediction that the iWatch will not get ANY traction until after it is released.

    Thst makes menan astute anslyst worth millions of dollars prr year, right?

    1. Prostitute analysts don’t make millions of dollars per year. Their pimps rake off the cream. That’s why they have to keep going back out into the alleys.

      Oh wait you said astute, not prostitute? My bad I guess we all read things wrong & that goes for analysts too

  8. I think 10 million sales for a completely new product which presently remains largely unseen is as good as it can get, much better than one would expect especially considering the high price.

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