“KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimates iPad shipments will decline 40% year-over-year in Apple’s Q2, FY 2015,” Alex Cho writes for Seeking Alpha. “I believe that refresh will drive shipment growth 50% year-over-year on the assumption of a 3- or 4-year refresh cycle, paired with new customer wins.”
“The vast majority of Apple’s installed base is composed of households with higher discretionary income, therefore owning each device for its own unique capabilities is easy to justify. Because each device is upgraded at different points, consumers don’t have to stack purchases within a single year,” Cho writes. “For example, someone may upgrade their iPhone in the next 12 months then upgrade their iPad the year after, while replacing a Macbook every three to four years. The impact to the wallet doesn’t happen all at once so, even if having extra devices only offers marginal utility, the annual expense to maintain that marginal utility is often justified by many people, particularly Apple’s significant base of affluent consumers.”
“So no, I’m not buying into the cannibalization theory,” Cho writes. “The installed base of older iPad users will move to the next iPad. They have the money to do it and, quite frankly, an iPad is a much better content consumption device than the iPhone and MacBook. People will continue to own multiple devices and will make upgrades at different points of a products lifecycle.”
Read more in the full article here.
Related article:
Analyst: Larger ‘iPad Pro’ pushed back to Q215; Q1 to see under 10 million iPad units shipped – November 13, 2014
Totally agree. I have macs, iPhones and iPads. I would not get rid of any of mine, and will update each of them on a far different cycle.
The iPad is not the iPhone, users will not upgrade it every 1-2 years. It is a great product, I use my iPad far more than my Mac, but I have no need to upgrade my 3rd gen iPad and probably won’t for 2 more years.
I used my iPad 1 (purchased day one) until the iPad 3 was released and am still using the 3. Granted, the iPad 3 is not as responsive as it first was, but I continue to use it at least a couple of hours a day. I plan to use it until next year when I’ll want to spring for iPad Air “3”.
I am in this same situation… The iPad Air 2 looks nice, but just not compelling enough for the upgrade. Here’s to hoping the iPad Air 3 will convince me it is time to upgrade
I’ve always purchased a new iPhone on launch day every year beginning with the 1st generation. I usually buy a new Mac every couple of years. I was buying a new iPad every launch day as well, but between my MacBook Air 11″ and my iPhone 6 Plus, there really isn’t as much need for an iPad, certainly not one with 4G/LTE.
I’m holding on to my iPad mini and full sized iPad, but didn’t buy a new one this year, and Apple will need to do something significant for me to purchase an iPad next year (maybe a 12″ or hybrid or something).
I know I’m not the average consumer, but it sure seems like a lot of 6 Plus users I know have/had iPads and aren’t using them so much anymore.
This isn’t a bad thing.
I have typically gone two years on phones (until this yr AT&T customer retention plan made it pencil out on iPhone 6), iPads have been upgraded for big upgrades, 1st, 2nd, 4th and Air. My MbPro typically refreshed about every 2-3 yrs as big upgrades occur. My wife on a similar sched with her phones, iPad and iMacs. She skipped iPad Air and just got the Air2. Hand-me downs go to family members…
Yes I am not buying it as well. It was unjustified for what they did to the iPad Mini 3. They claimed that the iPhone 6 Plus will take over the Mini. That is unheard of!! I for one I use my iPhone to communicate, play games, get directions, and take pictures. I will not get anything bigger than the 6. The 6 Plus does not meet my needs because it is too big as a phone. I also I just got iPad Mini 2. It is perfect for reading. I do a lot of reading. Books, Graphic novels, comics etc. I also watch movies and play games. I was looking forward to the new Mini with all the upgrades that the iPad Air 2. What a big let down. Apple will kill the Mini and the iPhone 6, 7, 8 Plus will be the new Mini. What a wrong move!! And don’t get me talking about the ATV. That was another let down.
It will be a cold day in hell when I give up my iPad mini for a 6+, ain’t gonna happen.
I upgrade on different cycles:
iMac and MacBook: on two 8 years interlaced cycles (so one new computer every 4 years)
iPhone: every 3 years
iPad: every 4 years. but since I bought my iPad 2 in April 2011 and now the new ones are released in October, I guess I will wait for iPad Air 3 and extend to 4.5 years this one time…