“It appears that the iPhone 6 launch date will be September 9th or perhaps a bit later than that depending upon which rumor mill you choose to follow,” Jason Russ writes for Seeking Alpha. “”
“For all seven past iPhone releases, Apple stock has averaged total gains of 5.4% in the two-month period that covers before and after the phone launches. However, most of those gains have occurred in the month leading up to the launch. Post-launch one-month gains have averaged 1.4%,” Russ writes. “Taking out the very first launch – I think it is reasonable to postulate that the first iPhone data tells us little about what to expect going forward – and averaging the last six years results in a post-launch loss of 1.3%. Using data from the last four years results in an average loss of 4.4% in the month following a new phone release.”
“If the last six years of history have taught us anything it is that: AAPL is likely to decrease in the month after an iPhone launch [and] even if the stock is up for that time period, in the 2-3 weeks post-launch AAPL is unlikely to make a substantial move to the upside,” Russ writes. “Furthermore, for the last four launches, every time that Apple stock has increased pre-launch, the stock has tanked post-launch (an average drop of 8.8%).”
Much more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Looking at things from a different, longer-term angle, one might see a post-launch buying opportunity. Of course, as always: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Trade at your own risk.