Apple’s TV innovation will be, as usual, unexpected

“Recently, a few articles have suggested that the window of opportunity for Apple’s next generation TV project is closing,” John Martellaro writes for TheStreet. “To make that assertion, it’s necessary to have a comprehensive picture of the current technology, the roadmap for Apple’s competition and keen insight into Apple’s secret development work. Few have it all.”

“Even more ironic is that the very outcry for innovation by Apple is a call for something new and unexpected,” Martellaro writes. “How can one demand the unexpected and yet arrogantly claim that Apple’s opportunity has disappeared? It’s a contradiction.”

Martellaro writes, “Put another way, the window of opportunity for the Apple brand of exciting innovation, problem solving and elegant combination of hardware and software never closes. Ever.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Here’s what will happen:

1. Apple will announce a new product that nobody outside of Apple’s highest levels has ever imagined.

2. Immediately, those who lack imagination – Dvorak, we’re looking at you – will proclaim it to be nothing special.

3. The better, saner tech media will quickly realize that, hey, this could be something very, very special.

4. Reviewers will get their hands on the new product and they will be frantically tapping the thesaurus on their iPads for new superlatives.

5. Apple will revolutionize yet another market. Customers will flock.

6. The Googles, Samsungs, and Microsofts of the world will scramble to produce assorted halfassery at cheaper prices.

7. The well-educated and well-heeled will buy the Apple product and make substantial content and service purchases, insuring a vibrant ecosystem.

8. The cheap and nondiscerning will flock to lower price tags, not purchase much, if anything, but gravitate instead to pirated and free content, insuring a weak, insecure ecosystem.

9. Reviewers will begin to forget (or ignore) which is the original and which are the knockoffs and, via some confused notion of “fairness,” equate Apple’s products with the wannabes – Mossberg, we’re looking at you.

10. Virtually every single “news” story that’s clearly about Apple’s product will nonetheless piggyback the leading knockoff’s products into sentences such as, “High-end devices such as Apple’s [insert product name here] and [insert knockoff peddler name here]’s [insert product name here] typically cost over [insert price here], but similar devices from [insert low-end knockoff peddler names here] cost significantly less.” Little or no mention will be made about ecosystem quality, build quality, ease-of-use, security, etc. Reviews of Apple’s following generations of said product, by now evolved into a product family, will also employ the same “fairness.” To the ignorati, the leading knockoff products will be considered equal to Apple’s revolutionary, category-defining product.

11. Next reviewers will begin to claim that certain knockoff products are better than Apple’s due to one specific spec or another. Some reviewers will even claim to have “switched” from Apple’s product to the knockoff in order to whore up some clicks. On Twitter, they will post links to their “I dumped Apple for” articles from their Apple devices.

12. The Apple short-sellers who have been trying to concoct negative sentiment all along will begin to get some traction by touting new market share data, claiming that Apple is losing, Apple can no longer innovate, Apple needs cheaper prices, etc.

13. Apple’s stock price will take a hit. Smart investors will use this period to back up the truck.

13. Slowly, data will reveal that, hmm, Apple is taking the lion’s share of the profits of this new market that Apple has created. Wow. Further, the data will reveal that Apple’s ecosystem is, gee, highly profitable for everyone involved, from accessory makers to developers to advertisers to content producers to Apple themselves. Who’da thunk it?

14. Apple’s stock price will rebound to new levels.

15. As Apple rolls out successive generations of the product line, pundits will begin asking “what’s wrong with Apple?” and clamor for Apple to deliver the unexpected.

16. See #1.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]

70 Comments

    1. Lightning strikes routinely at Apple. Off the top of my head, I’ll probably miss some:

      Apple I
      Apple II
      Mac
      iMac
      OS X
      iPod
      iTunes
      iTunes Store
      iPhone/iPod touch
      MacBook Air
      App Store
      iCloud
      iPad/iPad mini

      Take MacDailyNews’ list above and it applies to every one of the products/services I’ve listed.

      1. It’s some of the underlying technologies Apple implements that are always overlooked and I think are just as important as a new hardware category – iCloud (that you mention above), iBeacon (I think a lot of people are failing to realize how HUGE this technology will become), power saving architecture, location-based/mapping services (I think we are still in it’s infancy and Apple will come up with angles on it that will leave Google flatfooted), and seamless document/data ubiquity, among the many others.

      2. Whats Apple #1 in?
        1. #1 Hardware product sales/profit globally
        2. #1 Globally profitable music retailer via iTune
        3. #1 Globally profitable brick and mortar retailer: Apple Stores
        4. #1 Globally profitable apps industry
        5. #1 Largest company on the planet

    2. The lightning analogy that is perpetually repeated with respect to Apple’s success, implies that the company’s future is contingent on chance. Simply a roll of the dice. No one EVER questions the ability of Ford Motor Company to produce another product, or class of vehicle.
      However, in the case of Apple, it seems beyond imagination that this mature ENGINEERING POWERHOUSE awash with success and cash could possible produce another product in it’s native industry.
      ABSOLUTELY MIND BLOWING!!!
      Buy as much AAPL as you can afford, and let the talking heads chatter away! Do you think for a nano second that the likes of Ichan et al. have not done their homework??? They have already told you that AAPL is their LARGEST holdings!! Chew on that for a while!

    3. the future A series chip, when removed by competitors for study, will turn to liquid metal, just like the cop and kristanna loken.

      the chips brain will circulate floating algorithms that act in concert and travel wirelessly to interact with the alpha waves of the viewer. the real apple tv will exist in its most potent form as a gestalt of the viewers awareness as the viewers awareness becomes focused on apples tv. it will be a paradigm shift as its technology interacts with biology.

      samsung will produce a meaningless and ineffectual prototype in the year 2045 AD.

    4. Roku is kicking Apple’s ass. Apple really needs to put more emphasis in making AppleTV a more competitive product. Whatever Apple plans on doing Apple should do it soon.

    1. The “iTV” detractors, lacking imagination, imagine a stylish HDTV with a built-in Apple TV box. If that’s all Apple has for its complete TV product, then that’s a product that should never be released. It would just be a more expensive “hobby.”

      But when it is eventually released, you know it will be MUCH more. There is nothing right now that cries for the Apple makeover more that “TV content delivery and consumption user experience.” Progress is stagnant. Most HDTVs are just “dumb monitors” that connect to a box from the service provider. The “cable box” interface looks and feels like a bad copy of TIVO from the 1990’s. There is better opportunity for Apple here than in the smartphone market in 2007.

      It just takes a lot of time to put all the pieces of the strategy together, because the scope of this venture will be staggering.

  1. I’m not sure that this gets the other key element in Apple innovation, the ability to do right for the first time what many others have tried and failed to do right.

    Have any of you struggled with a current generation Smart TV: essentially a screen with Internet access via a Linux box built in? The challenge for Apple is to do it with an Apple box built in, or attached in the mature form of Apple TV, to the extent that no satellite or TV cable connection is needed. Timing not yet right, because a) would crash the network capacity and b) needs all the content streams set up for on-line delivery. The TV networks get it, which is why they are playing hard to get.

    Same problems arose when the iPod emerged and people said why so late to the MP3 game, and then why did the iTunes store take so long?

    It’s not the unexpected new product category, it’s the perfect implementation of one that’s pretty obvious, but like shovelling **** when others try, that does it.

  2. Yeah, the pattern was starting to seem obvious, but the pundits are so locked into their roles in this looping scenario that they can’t help but play out Groundhog Day. Don’t they ever sense déjà vu? Do they notice themselves parroting themselves? What a bunch of caricatures. Voltaire would have thrown up his hands in defeat.

      1. “yes, the pattern was obvious, but oblivious are the role-playing pundits, blinded by shadows of another February Second. Alas! My dear… unless you have been raped by two Bulgarians, stabbed twice in the belly, have had two castles destroyed, two fathers and mothers murdered before your eyes, and have seen two of your lovers flogged in an auto-da-fe, I do not see how you can surpass me; moreover, I was born a Baroness with seventy-two quarterings and I have been a kitchen wench.”

      2. I’m a paperback writer. Romances make more money than murder mysteries, satisfy more reader longings, and make more sense than biographies. Also there is little of that irritating public accountability or moralising cant set forth by bunched-up reviewers. Being viewed as dubious or irrelevant by mainstream literary pundits is a definite advantage. It’s a form of liberty.

          1. I consider it special that you shared that. I am sure that writer was not me, as my books were mostly undedicated. By the way, did you actually read any of them? Be honest now.

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