Why Apple stock is headed to $600

“Apple is manufacturing a growth spurt that could send its shares more than 20% higher to $600 over the next year,” Jack Hough writes for Barron’s. “Shares of Apple… [are] up 12%, compared with a 1% rise for the S&P 500… yet they still sell for just 12 times forward earnings estimates, a discount of about 20% to the S&P 500. Four events could send them well higher over the next year.”

“First, the strong initial iPhone sales, combined with a backlog of orders for the higher-priced model, suggest Apple will report solid revenues in both its current quarter, which runs through September, and the following one. Profits should please Wall Street, too,” Hough writes. “Second, Apple has yet to announce a deal that is expected to begin offering the iPhone through China Mobile, that country’s largest wireless carrier [750 million subscribers, compared with 100 million for Verizon Wireless].”

“Third, Apple is expected to introduce an updated iPad tablet computer in time for holiday sales… Fourth, it’s not too early to begin looking forward to the iPhone 6,” Hough writes. “None of this hinges on a futuristic TV, watch, or other device that Apple isn’t currently selling.”

Read more in the full article here.

31 Comments

    1. Agreed with so much more.

      • There will be a Mac Pro that will pass the European environmental standards shipping in the last quarter of this year.

      • More Apple server farms will be coming on line along with their on-line services. That includes the one in Hong Kong.

      • The integration of iOS in more of the new cars.

      These are just the things that are openly shared by Apple at this time. There are many more “Just one more things” to come!

    2. Why? You’ve already seen what happened last year with Apple’s share price. I don’t trust Wall Street. Apple can pile on revenue all it wants and there will still be plenty of reasons for Wall Street to discredit Apple. The same way Wall Street pumps up profitless stocks into shareholder moneymakers, they can do just the opposite with Apple. I know Apple has a fine future, but Wall Street claims Apple doesn’t and Apple shareholders continue to get whacked. Constant bad press from the news media and the ever-present distrust by hedge fund managers will keep Apple’s share price down and I don’t see any way to change that except for Apple to acquire some business that has a strong future.

      After following Apple this year up to now, look at how fine NASDAQ, the Dow, and S&P 500 (+17% – +25%) have been doing YTD while Apple has stayed well into minus territory. If you don’t believe me, then do a comparison for yourself. And then take a look at Apple’s share price compared to other similar tech peers. It’s nothing short of unbelievable.

      Does Apple seem like it’s going out of business? Has the post-PC era harmed Apple the most? How can you confidently say Apple is going to $600 after you take all this into consideration. This market is dead set against Apple from making any significant gains.

    1. How do you figure? That would represent a bubble-like growth. Apple isn’t a startup.

      Considering that for the 2013 YTD Apple has lost value, underperforming the NASDAQ — even behind MSFT, GOOG, and HPQ — thus with new hardware sales strong, AAPL bouncing back up 30% in the next quarter is practically a given. However, increasing 50% in one quarter is fantasy.

      AAPL won’t repeat its stratospheric 1st quarter 2012 valuation rise because headwinds have only increased — the global economy is not hot, and won’t be for quite a while. Investors are wary of the soft consumer sentiment and downright scared at the idiots in Congress who are willing to destroy the US economy so they can vote 40 times to futilely “send a message” that they hate the AHCA.

      Apple has no real industrial offerings to counter the trends of a consumer market, so a weak overall Christmas season could unfairly punish AAPL even if Apple sells every unit it can make.

      Moreover, AAPL has not been sailing smooth for the last few years. Cook has clearly slowed the pace. But he also introduced some volatility, in part due to making all major product releases in the 4th quarter, overrunning $multi-billion capital expenses for frivolous office construction, very poor press release content and frequency, and the uninspiring stock buy-back program. It will be a continued bumpy ride.

      One would hope Apple hits $700 in late 2014 or early 2015, but not in the 1st quarter of 2014. After all, the Apple community and the wise investor are better served by steady, stable, measured growth. That will require a successful Mac Pro and Mavericks release, as well as some impressive product updates in spring of 2014. We shall see if Cook rises to the challenge.

      1. “However, increasing 50% in one quarter is fantasy.”

        You mean like tanking from 705 to 395 for no reason other than the type of rhetoric you so painfully make an effort to paint as reason?

        “Apple has no real industrial offerings to counter the trends of a consumer market, so a weak overall Christmas season could unfairly punish AAPL even if Apple sells every unit it can make.”

        Lame, despite the effort to soften your image with the ‘unfarly’ word.

        There is no one else to even remotely offer anything of similar value, quality or excellence, in as wide a variety and price range (starting with FREE iPhones) as Apple, never mind anyone else capable of the breakthrough quality products and innovation ( hint look at resale value), as Apple.

        This holiday season will belong exclusively to Apple, in the consumer electronics, moblie, computer and photography ( yes..) makets to name only some. Guaranteed and the FUD that was launched last year, after a record breaking Apple Xmas (is old and tired) quater, will NOT work this year, the boys crie wolf one too many times…

        Apple is the only game in tech – it will expand and grow incrementally for years to come, you forget that the hostile, unfounded Apple swarming and onslaught that knocked it down from 705 was total FUD and baseless, as we now all see – Nothing has changed at Apple except the number keep growing.

        1. The last time Apple hit $700, it was a bubble. The bubble popped.

          “There is no one else to even remotely offer anything of similar value”. That is total BS. Just because others have different product value assessments than you doesn’t make all others wrong.

          “This holiday season will belong exclusively to Apple” — again, your exaggerated position is ridiculous. Of the millions of companies on the planet, only Apple is going to sell anything this season. Riiiiiiiigghhht.

          I provided objective assessment as to why one would temper expectations. I agreed with the article that Apple will more than recover the value it lost this year, and stated why AAPL won’t rocket immediately back to its all-time-record valuation in less than a quarter as you claim it will.

          You still have not given any reason to support your prediction. You have, however, exposed yourself as a blind fanboy instead of a _realistic_ Apple investor and user as I am. There is a difference which you might grasp when you grow up.

      2. corrected typos:

        “However, increasing 50% in one quarter is fantasy.”

        You mean like tanking from 705 to 395 for no reason other than the type of rhetoric you so painfully make an effort to paint as reason?

        “Apple has no real industrial offerings to counter the trends of a consumer market, so a weak overall Christmas season could unfairly punish AAPL even if Apple sells every unit it can make.”

        Lame, despite the effort to soften your image with the ‘unfarly’ word.

        There is no one else to even remotely offer anything of similar value, quality or excellence, in as wide a variety and price range (starting with FREE iPhones) as Apple, never mind anyone else capable of the breakthrough quality products and innovation ( hint look at resale value), as Apple.

        This holiday season will belong exclusively to Apple, in the consumer electronics, moblie, computer and photography ( yes..) makets to name only some – Guaranteed and the FUD that was launched last year, after a record breaking Apple Xmas quarter (is old and tired), will NOT work this year, the boys cried wolf one too many times…

        Apple is the only game in tech – it will expand and grow incrementally for years to come, you forget that the hostile, unfounded, Apple swarming and onslaught that knocked it down from 705 was total FUD and baseless, as we now all see – Nothing has changed at Apple except that the number keep growing.

      1. Yes asshole, read the news and the writing on the wall and don’t get back to anyone on this forum anymore.

        Apple just split 7:1 is almost at $600 and will be at least $100 immediately post split faster than you can say I’m such a moron.

  1. I am not so sure. I was surprised that Apple had 5s phones available at their stores yesterday for pickup. My order made at 12:04 PM on the 20th is scheduled for 10/7 to 7/11. It seems that the analysts who say millions of the sold that Apple so boldly claimed are indeed sitting on shelves. Something does not add up. I should get mine before someone can just call and pick up at the store. Tell me how this works please.

    1. I would assume that Apple has a separate supply for its online and retail stores. Just because the units allotted to online sales have sold out does not mean that the units that were destined for the retail stores have.

      If you’re that concerned about it, go to an Apple retail location and see if they have any in stock, then cancel your online order.

      1. I tried to do exactly that. The Apple stores near me, 2 in San Jose, 2 in Palo Alto do not have the gold 64 I ordered. I am just saying Apple said they had sold all 5s stock. But if so how do they have some and why weren’t those at the stores 3 days earlier. Could they possibly be returned from AT&T or Verizon, etc? And if they made them since the 20th why not fill paid for online orders. What am I missing?

        1. Because there are probably phones at all stages of production/delivery. They sold out of their initial inventory (the phones that were on-hand last Friday) almost immediately, but that does not mean that there are still not other phones that were in the process of being manufactured, packaged, shipped from China to distribution centers, and distributed to various vendors.

          And again, Apple has to allot certain numbers to certain vendors, including: Apple online store, Apple retail stores (worldwide), the carriers’ online stores, the carriers’ retail stores, retail chains (Walmart, Best Buy), etc., etc., etc. Your order from the online store is basically waiting in line for the Apple online store to serve everyone who ordered before you with the phones that are allotted to the Apple online store.

          It may not seem fair to you that other stores get them before you do, but Apple cannot just cater to the people who placed online orders first at the expense of everyone else.

    1. The Apple faithful gets all excited about updates, tweaks, next versions, a finger print detector, etc., but investors don’t see them as anything other than the expected next step in product refresh. That’s why Wall Street ignores Tim’s constant references to “great new products in the pipeline.”

      1. Apple has become a joke in the smartphone industry and on Wall Street. Exactly who’s at fault, I’m not entirely sure, but Apple has become very, very unpopular with the big money investors and tech critics, and Tim Cook is the most likely to be held responsible for this. Other CEOs of profitable companies are able to turn even less revenue into shareholder value, but Tim Cook can’t. Do I think Apple should dump Tim Cook? No. Do I think Apple is running the company poorly? No. My only question is why can’t Apple with all its money available find any way to create shareholder value to even pull it out of the red for 2013. That’s all.

  2. This is gonna be a big iPad update. I wonder if there will be an iPad mini with retina display AND Touch ID. My quick prediction:

    iPad mini (current) in colored plastic cases, price now $289

    iPad mini with retina display and touch ID, amazing build materials/quality, $499

    iPad 4 (same as current), $449

    iPad with touch ID, lighter body, luxury design, $599

    I realize the new higher price points could be a PR challenge, but they will sell a ton of these things regardless. I know some people who would have paid a thousand bucks for a retina mini if it had come out last year.

  3. If market forces were not so manipulated, AAPL would be pushing $1000 about now. However, the Hedge fund forces at work, using very sophisticated algorithms, are operating on a very different frequency with their own set of rules, dispite (or in spite of) the lessons of 2008.

    If anything is certain in the Stock Market…it’s nothing is certain or a lock. The next 6 months will be a critical period for the world economy. And as the world economy goes…so does everything else, including AAPL.

    1. “False reporting and consistently terrible market analysis has singlehandedly destroyed Apple’s valuation over the last year, despite the company’s record sales and industry leading profitability and the past year of sustained sales growth even as its primary competitor scales back shipments and sales estimates of both its flagship smartphones and tablets.(http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/24/abc-wsj-bloggers-explain-apples-record-iphone-launch-numbers-are-bad-news)

      The egregiousness of the Apple FUD is nothing compared to the ignorance of the public consuming it on and in ALL levels of our lives.

      Unless we don’t wake up and snap out of the media induced, fed and manipulated coma that we’re in and start reasoning and questioning the facts , as opposed to virtual knowledge, we will be sure to erase all truth.

  4. With iOS 7 and the iPhone 5S, Samsung will die a slow, painful, Blackberry-ish death. Their “innovations” are pretty useless. I made an incredible iMovie at a concert ON MY PHONE and exported it to iTunes to watch on my big TV the next day. Apple is for those that want the best. Samsung is for size queens.

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