Analyst claims iPhone fall-off, lack of iPad refresh pose risk of Apple fiscal Q213 miss

“Among those contemplating Apple‘s fiscal Q2 earnings report on April 23rd is R.W. Baird‘s William Power, who today reiterates a Neutral rating on the shares and a $465 price target, writing that the June-quarter outlook looks to be a disappointment,” Tiernan Ray reports for Barron’s.

Ray reports, “Writes Power, the Street is not being realistic about how much the iPhone’s sales are evaporating, and there isn’t the customary Spring iPad update: ‘We expect a sharper fall-off in iPhone sales due in part to heightened competition, and the lack of a March/April iPad refresh to depress this year’s sequential comparison relative to a year ago.'”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: R.W. Baird‘s William Power couldn’t analyze his way out of a wet paper bag.

William Power’s opinions about Apple are as changeable as a baby’s bottom. – Phillip Elmer-Dewitt, Fortune, January 28, 2013

Related article:
Baird Equity analyst William Power’s opinions about Apple are as changeable as a baby’s bottom – January 28, 2013

28 Comments

  1. Let’s iCal that comment MDN. Then we can check back next Tuesday evening to see who’s right and who’s wrong. Looks like Apple may drop below that resistance barrier at the bottom today. Around $419. Watch out below!

  2. I seem to sense an April 23rd bloodbath coming for Apple shareholders. I’m already getting prepared so the shock doesn’t overcome me like in the past. I may not even have the news of an increased dividend to be a buffer. All I know is that the bad news just keeps on coming without end and it’s hard to know what to believe.

    1. People who buy Apple stock are traders not investors. Apple doesn’t get a dime of your stock money. You are buying “used” stock from the original person who invested.

      It is no different than buying a used Corvette, and hoping the price goes up. GM didn’t get a dime, so why should they have to do something special to make sure your “investment” goes up. This is your “investment” not theirs.

      If you want to do something for humanity spend your money on something useful and stop buying stock hoping you can make money for nothing.

      The reason Wall Street is so corrupt is because we enable them. Wall Street is us. It is not them who is greedy, it is us. We want money for nothing and complain when we can’t get it. If you want to invest your money, buy solar panels for your home, or buy an Apple product which gives jobs to real people. Trading stock just takes money out of circulation and STOPS you from investing. Buying Stock and trying to get money for nothing is not investing, it is called leaching.

      Imagine if even half the money was pulled out of the stock money and spend on something useful for humanity. What a great world we could have.

      Yeah, that might be great, but that would be risky, so I’d rather buy Apple Stock and blame Tim Cook if it I lose money because I don’t care about helping humanity, I only care about me, and I want Tim to help me make money for nothing. That’s all I want.

      Maybe I deserve Wall Street after all. Those greedy bastards are starting to look just like me! That’s why I continue to support them. They are just like me!

      1. you are so clueless of the stock market that it is almost impossible to debate you.

        1) if there isn’t a ‘secondary market’ who would invest in companies (i.e build the country) in the first place? Without a secondary market the first investors will not make money as they can’t sell them at a profit at the secondary market when the the company booms. yeah there are dividends if the company pays dividends but dividends are peanuts compared to the RISKS involved in investing in a startup. If I was a big investor why would I pour millions into a company if there isn’t a secondary market for me to SELL my stock later? If there were no secondary investors to buy up the stock do you think Facebook, Google or Apple could have begun?

        2) to see how important Apple ITSELF thinks of its current shareholders see Apple Corporate’s Governance Guildlines Number One:

        (I copy and paste)

        ——-
        I.
        The Board oversees the Chief Executive Officer (the “CEO”) and other senior management in the
        competent and ethical operation of the Corporation on a day-to-day basis and assures that the longterm
        interests of the shareholders are being served
        ——-

        Get that?
        Number One is that the Board, the CEO, the management is to see that the shareholders interests are being served.

        Apple (regardless of clueless moneytards think) is a PUBLIC company and follows public company rules. Jobs, Woz and the other initial guys made a conscience deliberate FREE CHOICE to go the public route instead of staying private so now they have all the obligations of a public listed company. If they didn’t want to the legal hassles of shareholders (secondary market or not) then they should have stayed private.

        the day Cook says he doesn’t care for shareholders he will be gone. The current shareholders elect the Board who hire the CEO.

        1. First I am a programmer on Wall Street for way too many years so I know a lot more than you think, and I have seen way too much that shouldn’t have been seen already so don’t lecture me. I am on the inside. There are other forms of investment such as Co-ops. How about the employees invest in the companies they create, or Banks (if they ran right), loaning money at interest with a built in risk factor folded in to the interest rate. Then we can deposit our money at the bank into different risk pools and REALLY invest our money at our own personal level of risk/reward, and jump start new industries that WE believe in simply by choosing to invest in these pools.

          The problem is that people like you can’t think outside the box. Your whole argument is like me saying we shouldn’t be using gasoline, and you saying “What you are crazy, gasoline engines can’t work without gas, therefore we need it”.

          All you did is argue that the system is this way, so therefore it has to be this way. Maybe we shouldn’t be allowed to buy and sell stock at all. Maybe all dividends should be interest, how about that,? and it wouldn’t be up to the company execs to decide how much they want to pay.
          Don’t forget in a free market, if the Banks invest too little, they also get no rewards, but our stupid Federal Reserve System makes it too easy for Banks not to invest at all so that’s broken too! (but that is another story).

          The whole mutual fund market could be based on loans couldn’t it? The whole concept of the stock market as it is is unnecessary and a terrible way to manage money. Stock is bought and sold based on no defined value whatsoever other than what some clueless analyst says he thinks it is worth and people like you who believe there is no other way salivate at the mouth, and even if you don’t listen to the Analyst, the price of the stock reflects his “wisdom” anyway, AND YOU BUY BASED ON THOSE PRICES! So indirectly, you become a believer anyway!

          It is you that is clueless, and if you believe that the human race would have stopped dead in it’s tracks and died off without the stock market, then you are not only clueless but sad.

          I stand by my argument, and I know that humanity will be just fine without the stock market, and I trust that smart people would develop better alternatives that could solve ALL of your simple minded arguments, even if you can’t imagine a world without a Stock Market, I can.

          1. why shouldn’t I lecture you because you’re a PROGRAMMER on wall street?, Being a PROGRAMMER on wall street doesn’t mean you know anything about investing.

            My brother’s a progammer, he programmes generic auditing software, doesn’t mean he knows anything much about how the companies that use the software : yeah he knows they have an accounting department and the software should route the spreadsheets from here to there etc but does he know how to run those companies? make my brother CEO and they will go broke.

            2) you say you have better way: banks etc should invest in startups..
            dude why do you think silicon valley starups so often use INVESTOR firms like Kleiner Perkins?
            because Banks don’t want the risks of many startups. investors are willing to risk BIG because they think that one of the many companies they risk in might make it big AND THE CAN RECOUP IN THE SECONDARY SHARE MARKET.

            You cay bank should lend? To borrow money you also need Collateral (like real estate ) : if a Steve Jobs wanted to get 50 million in a startup funds with ZERO collateral , a bank is going to lend it to him? Please point me to that bank.

            Companies want to issue shares because they cant get the kind of funding from banks.

            3) Name me ONE big Tech firm started with a co- op system you described.

            4) communism sounds great in THEORY as well : every one should work with their gifts they are born with and be paid the same….
            wonderful fantasy idea isn’t it?

            You accuse me of not thinking outside the box, I ask you not to think in theory cloud loo loo land.

            1. I have add this:

              I’m not saying that Wall Street is pure: there are lots of problems.

              perhaps even some kind of alternate is possible but it’s going to be a long time before changes will take place if ever.

              the reason I’m cheesed off is your statements that state ALL share holders today including long term apple investors like me are crooks or as best naive e.g : ” Buying Stock and trying to get money for nothing is not investing, it is called leaching.”

              so perhaps you are young and figure you can wait it out.

              You’re telling all those 40, 50s, 60s year old should sell their shares, cash out the 401 mutual funds because they should fight for a better investment environment?

              can they cash out now and WAIT for some pie in the sky system to come about in 10 twenty or thirty years? how are the going to fund their retirement and their medical bills (if they are now 40, 50, 60 years of age?)

              like I said you blanket statement like all shareholders are ‘leechers’ is naive and irritating.

            2. First of all I will tell you I am almost 60, and yes, I was almost 50 when I lost all my money and had to start over. I am doing this without much time left before I retire. So far, my cash only plan has worked out better than most peoples “trust wall street plan”. I am glad I did it.

              And you are right, just because I am a programmer doesn’t mean I know anything about investing otherwise I wouldn’t have lost all of my money. In fact the traders I work for also don’t know anything about investing because they also lost everyones money and that is my whole point.

              I watched them lose billions and profit quite nicely themselves. They didn’t have a clue about what they were buying and selling and nor did they care. Think about it, how could they know? Most of them are dumber than the Analysts and we all know how stupid they are! The game is rigged just like a casino. Nobody knows anything about investing not even the traders, all they understand is trading and commissions. That is what they do.

              You also seem to be irritated because I am accusing you of wanting money for nothing like a leach–but isn’t that what we are. I’m blaming myself too, that’s why I deserved to lose my money. I’m not picking on you, I’m picking on all of us. I put my money in Mutual funds and bought stock and thought I was so smart when the price kept going up. Before Y2k I loved making money for nothing. It was wonderful, isn’t that why we do it? We certainly aren’t doing it for the fun of it, and we are not doing it to help Apple either.

              So let’s be honest. You talk about retirement, do you think I am not scared. After working on Wall Street and seeing how they operate I decided I was facing a bad choice and a worse choice. The bad choice is “investing” in 0% bank accounts, and the worse choice is trusting these morons with my money. I took the bad choice.

              Also, you keep giving me every reason why the stock market must exist. Do you really believe that in 500 years we will still be trading stock? Are you saying there is no other way?

              As far as Banks, they suck and in my book they shouldn’t even exist. They are so corrupted sucking on the tit of the Federal Reserve that they perform no useful function in our society any more.

              I may be idealistic but I believe in less than 100 years the internet will disrupt Wall Street and shut it down anyway. Good riddance to them. I’m just getting out a little ahead of schedule because I believe it is the right thing to do for the betterment of humanity.

              If you are my age and you suffer yet another setback at the hands of Wall Street, you’ll regret not having the cash.

              Look how Apple is being valued. Is there any sense to Wall Street? Since when is the best run and most valuable company in the World a losing stock? I’ll take my chances with cash. I’m either living 200 years in the future, or 200 years in the past. Either one is better than the system we have now.

      2. @ confused

        just wondering if you don’t invest in stocks then what you are going to do in retirement?
        what is in your 401 or Canadian RRSP or whatever in your country ?
        Most people put their retirement monies into mutual founds, dividend funds etc which are all stocks in some form or another

        if you put ALL your money into fixed deposits at low interest you’ll probably never save enough to retire at your current living standards. and who knows what the bank will do with your fix D cash? mabye buy shares in companies?

        if you invest in REAL ESTATE the prices are also controlled by the SECONDARY MARKET which you hate…

        perhaps you don’t need to invest because you have a Governemtn PENSION or some other pension. well pension plans like teacher union’s pension funds etc are heavily invested in Stocks ….

        or perhaps you are deciding to retire on Social Security. Well that’s funded by taxes on companies who are involved in stocks (like being funded by stock investors) or by taxpayers who are also working for companies (funded by stocks).

        so are you clean?

        or perhaps you are rich spoon fed baby who doesn’t have to work in which case you have no idea how the world works and your opinion is worthless.

        1. These are all good question and ones that I deal with all the time. As a programmer on Wall Street I believed in the system until I saw too much. I also lost my ENTIRE savings in the stock market. That is what it took for me to learn my lesson.

          Maybe my reaction was different than most. I decided that I deserved to lose all my money because I was being greedy and wanted something for nothing. I dumped thousands in the stock market and watch it go up, up, up, making me lots of money without hardly lifting a finger. I got to thinking I actually deserved all this money until I lost it. Then I realized, maybe it was taken away from me because of my greed. While I was counting my money in the stock market, people around the world were starving to death. God (if there is one) gave me the money, and I did nothing with my good fortune, all I did is want more. I helped no-one. Maybe he took it away because I didn’t deserve all the free money I was getting.

          When Apple was going up and up, I felt bad missing the opportunity, but I decided, I won’t allow myself to be tempted again–and I LOVE Apple. Today, my goal is to save my money and forget the interest. I realize that I have a slight declining value in my bank accounts because of inflation, but I more than make up for it by living a minimal lifestyle.

          I pay extra for electricity by subscribing to Wind Power Only on the grid, and I feel like an “investor” every time I turn on my light switch because I only use the wind, and pay the workers who enable this power for me. I actually like paying my electric bill because I am helping to jump start a new industry that benefits us all.

          Is this perfect–no. I wish the Stock Market would go away and we could live in a world of risk pools and loans, and employee owned co-ops, and I wish the Federal Reserve system would just drop dead, but I live on earth with you and everybody else. I have no secret tunnel.

          I no longer borrow money, other than day to day credit cards, and I buy more modest things that I can afford which makes me feel great. I’m tired of owing money.

          I wish that more people would join me and dump all their stock. The stock market could go away, and humanity would be just fine without it. We will find another way and In the end, we vote with our dollars and the giant greed on Wall Street is caused by the millions of little greeds called “us”.

          If you have money in Wall Street, then you ARE Wall Street.
          Trust me, you can save your money without Stock even with inflation. In fact with the trends over the past 10 years I am probably doing just as well as all the so called investors. In fact, there is a psychological reward that is very seductive of watching cash grow.

          There is something real about money in the bank that I never got with Stock and 401k’s. The cash is my money, right now with no strings attached. All the other stuff is “funny money” with strings attached.

          It is the very seduction of cash that actually makes me want to save more, in a weird way, it is fun and empowering to save cash. I didn’t feel that way with Stock. I was always hoping that people like Tim Cook would do the heavy lifting for me.

          Who cares about the interest. If you are saving faster than inflation then you are doing just fine. That whole “inflation” garbage is just Wall Street Marketing that we all fell for. Sell your stock, put it in the bank (either immediately or gradually) and see how good it feels!

          Am I wasting money? Who knows. I certainly made out better than lots of people who bought Apple Stock 6 months ago. Am I nuts? Maybe, but I am as free as I can be at this point in human evolution and I don’t intend to go back to the “old” way of doing things where there are lots of Analysts and random events between me and my money.

          I am fine with the FDIC and being 5 minutes and 6 blocks away from all of my money, and I can tell you EXACTLY how much will be in my account 6 months from now. Isn’t that worth something too?

          1. Except that the bank has already lent your cash as loan to real-estate buyers – multiple times, in fact.
            My current “investment strategy” also says “savings account, only”:
            – I got burned, too in the past
            – at current interest rates, there’s no point in committing the money long term – and the stock market is pumped up with all the QE money, it can only go down IMO
            – I get virtually no interest, but neither do I have to pay fees for the privilege of my money either being used to gamble, or some dude buying useless “follow the indices” stock, which I could do myself if I wanted.
            So, I wait. At some point, the cash might actually become very valuable – unless the government collects it, Cyprus-style. I don’t rule that out, either.

            1. Yeah I worry about that too. The only thing that I can say is that Cyprus was in really bad shape before it happened so there are warning signs.

              If things start getting that bad over here, I may pull my money out sooner. It is not like we are losing interest anyway.

              What to do with the cash is another problem. Hopefully things won’t get that bad over here but one never knows what catastrophic event (man made or natural) can occur in the future.

  3. Under 400$ possibly. It’s going to be brutal for some. I’m not even breaking a sweat.

    Wall Street though, well looks like it will need another bailout soon…but will it get one?

  4. When Apple releases a new product = worry over its production problem \ margin decrease
    When Apple release a cheap iPhone = the cannibation problem
    When Apple has no new product = the production cut worry / bigger competition \ Market share is low due to no cheap iPhone .

    I wonder HOW AND WHAT can make Apple rise back !!!!

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.