Beware the sucker’s rally in beleaguered RIM, Nokia

“Research in Motion (RIMM) shares have roughly doubled in three months. Nokia (NOK) has doubled in five months,” Jack Hough writes for Barron’s. “An investor who believes turnarounds are afoot for both companies would also have to believe there is room for at least four major smartphone platforms: thriving iOS from Apple (AAPL) and Android from Google (GOOG); Microsoft’s new Windows Phone 8, which Nokia is betting its future on; and BlackBerry 10, a long-awaited upgrade from RIMM expected in January.”

MacDailyNews Take: “Android” is not a platform. It’s a bunch of forks incongruously referred to by a common name. Read more here.

“That’s unlikely — and RIMM holds a particularly weak hand. The Blackberry operating system’s market share is likely to slip to 4.6% this quarter, versus 5.3% for Microsoft and a combined 84% for iOS and Android, predicts Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley,” Hough writes. “If there’s room for a third major platform — a big if — Microsoft is the likeliest contender, because it has cash to lavish on developers, and because its phone software integrates nicely with its broad base of installed computer software. But even it won’t make rapid gains in phones. Next year, Microsoft’s phone market share should climb to 8.1%, while RIMM’s will slip to 3.2%, according to Walkley.”

Hough writes, “That raises the risk that RIMM is experiencing a Palm rally. Shares of that now-forgotten phone maker once soared from $3 to about $18 before plummeting back to $3 and change — all in the space of 18 months, points out UBS telecom analyst Phillip Huang in a recent research note. And even if Microsoft succeeds, Nokia won’t necessarily reap the benefits. HTC also makes a Windows phone, and Microsoft is reportedly testing its own hardware.”

Read more in the full article here.

9 Comments

  1. I think Microsoft’s market share increase will at most be half that while Blackberry’s drop will be that most likely. Anyway you look at it Microsoft & RIMM will be the mobile phone bottom feeders for years to come until both companies wither away. Only crocodile tears here then.

  2. The only Android fork that counts as “Android” is the one that is Android 4.x + Chrome + Google Search + Google Play. Everything else is just an “other”. Now can anyone get me a market share number on the genuine thing? I bet it pales next to iOS.

  3. RIMM will flourish again with BlackBerry 10 while Microsoft gaining back its market with its window 8 phone. iPhone is getting old and it has to act fast coming out with better iPhone 6 and not just by adding another row for icons…..

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