Apple stock falls as some misinterpret demand for iPhone 5 in China

“Apple (AAPL) products are among the most wanted gifts this holiday season, but its stock continues to be out of favor with investors,” Patrick Seitz reports for Investor’s Business Daily. “In afternoon trading Friday, Apple shares were down 3.8%, near 509.55. Earlier in the day, Apple was down as much as 4.2%.”

“The latest news making investors nervous includes an analyst report with a lower earnings forecast for the next two years and worries about weaker-than-expected iPhone 5 sales in China,” Seitz reports. “UBS Securities analyst Steven Milunovich on Friday cut his earnings estimates for Apple’s fiscal 2013 and 2014 by about 10% to roughly 5% below consensus forecasts. He now expects Apple to post earnings per share of $47, down from $51.50, for fiscal 2013 ending in September, and $55.85, down from $62, for 2014. He made the changes based on lower iPhone and iPad sales than he originally forecast. Milunovich forecast more conservative growth for Apple based on supply chain checks indicating a slowdown in iPhone production in the March quarter and expectations that the iPhone 5 won’t sell as well in China as the iPhone 4S…Jefferies analyst Peter Misek cut his current-quarter iPhone sales estimate on Friday to 48 million from 52 million, citing concerns about sales in China, Forbes reported. The iPhone 5 debuted in China on Friday to smaller crowds than other Apple launches, he said.

Seitz reports, “But Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster dismissed those concerns. ‘The lack of lines at Apple retail locations in China have fueled concerns about China’s demand for iPhones,’ Munster said in a report Friday. ‘We believe there are three core reasons for fewer lines as compared to the 4S: Apple implementing a reservation system to avoid crowds, double the number of points of sale compared to the 4S, and increased pre-orders online. We remain comfortable with our 45 million December iPhone unit estimate, including 4-5 million from China.'”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Apple institutes a system in China to minimize lines and certain “analysts” are shocked, just shocked, we tell you, that there are no lines. Furthermore, Apple actually ratchets back iPhone production after the holiday shopping quarter. Let’s all gasp in unison with faux “concern,” shall we?

You can bet that we’ll be revisiting these “analysts” and comparing their estimates to Apple’s actual results in the future.

Related articles:
Why there were no long lines for iPhone 5′s China launch – December 14, 2012
iPhone 5 surpasses 300,000 reservations with China Unicom in first week – December 10, 2012
China Unicom’s iPhone 5 reservations double to 200,000 in 3 days – December 6, 2012
China Unicom racks up 100,000 iPhone 5 preorders in first day – December 4, 2012

24 Comments

  1. I am tired. Trying to read, proof, interpret, argue and in the end loose what was equal to a year’s salary several times over the last 3 months. I am in and it is way to late to step out. Apple is much larger than these clueless professionals can grasp.

    In the end, it was profit taking on what was the largest pile of cash prior to the Federal Tax changes and several other things that have nothing to do with Apple. In the end, Apple will run up again as we roll into 2013. Apple will dominate the iPad and iPhone markets taking in 3/4 of the profits in these markets. Apple pushed out Google to move into China. Apple will continue pulling everything away from Samsung. Apple will continue to sell as much as they can get made. And in the end, they will again state, “We would have sold more if we could have made more.” Who else will state that in their quarterly report!

    1. In the end, none of what Apple does will make a difference for shareholders. Wall Street is only backing companies with major market share. Apple is a company that was never intended to be a company depending upon major market share. Apple is a company like Porsche, Wall street prefers companies like Toyota. Everything that comes out of Wall Street’s mouth is about market share, market share, market share.

      Revenues and profits don’t even count anymore. Wall Street will only keep talking about 3 years, 5 years down the road and things like growth potential. They’re making up fictitious goals so Apple shareholders can’t win even as Apple continues to make the most profits. Wall Street is basically rigging the table against Apple shareholders and it seems to be perfectly legal to do. Wall Street has become the place where two birds in a bush is worth way more than a bird in hand.

      Apple’s biggest quarter earnings call isn’t even here yet and Wall Street has already looked upon it and considered it a huge loss. That’s a no-win situation for Apple shareholders.

    2. You make very many good points. Of course it was profit-taking. When a stock runs as high and as fast as Apple had run, you had better take your profit. Otherwise you will be down $200 per share. As many are. Why wouldn’t a sane investor take their profit? I mean damn! It’s the reason you put your money into an investment to begin with. As we can see, buy-and-hold isn’t a great idea if you don’t learn to occasionally take profit at some point. But that is now abundantly clear. Crystal clear. And of course people are selling due to the tax dilemma. But that is out of their hands. That has more to do with wealth redistribution. It’s a shame they didn’t sell at $700. They’d certainly feel a lot better today. These things are out of Apple’s hands. But iPhone five sales, Mac Mini sales and margins are just a few of the issues concerning Wall Street. We won’t really know until the middle of January how valid these concerns are. Apple can’t continue to run up as it has the last several years. It’s just not possible. Anyone who thinks is going to run up to $706 anytime soon is in for a surprise. I’ve invested in Apple for many, many years. I’ve also invested in other companies over those years. So when I tell you there is no more skepticism about Apple then any other company who has run up so high, it’s the truth. But there certainly is a lot of negativity at the moment. I’m not saying the air is completely out of the balloon but if you have not taken your profit in an AAPL by now, grab your ass with both hands. Down $2.09 after hours. It’s a long time until Monday.

      1. You keep posting over and over about how everybody should have been taking profit at $700 as if it was some sort of common knowledge that was the top. Did you have a crystal ball so you somehow knew it wasn’t going to $750 or $800?

        1. No I do not have a crystal ball. But when a stock reaches its all time high, I repeat all time high, you had better do something. Why do you think so many people got out at that point? It wasn’t the fiscal cliff and taxes in September! C’mon, you understand that. And even if Apple hadn’t reached its all time high, they just had a product release. And that doesn’t always bode well for the stock either. But it had reached its all time high. And they did just have a new product release. I’m sorry you didn’t get out at or near $706. My guess is that you have held all the way to this point. That’s $200 per share. Sorry about that. Just don’t let it happen again. Consider it an unbelievably expensive lesson in investing. You cannot buy an equity and hold it forever.

          1. I don’t necessarily disagree with anything you’re saying, but why didn’t you get out at $625, or 650, or even 675 – those were all all-time highs, too – on their way to the magic $700. If I had sold at $650, you’d be chiding me for all the money I left on the table as it went to $700, wouldn’t you? Who was to say it wasn’t going to $750 or $800?

            Congratulations for knowing to sell at $706, but you could have just as easily lost out on $50 or $100 in gains, right? Since I’m in, and staying in for now, when do you suggest I get out again? Is $600 the new top, and how do we know it’s not going to $706 again?

  2. Sales down, production down, iphone 4s outselling ip5 , DOWN DOWN DOWN. But wait, im sure i heard somewhere that it was Samsung who would be the company on the downer. yea thats right i heard it here at the Apple propaganda site.
    How about some of u face some hard truths, the hey day of apple is over, and your once obsession with a rounded edge toy can be diverted to your next companys next big thing. I here samsung are releasing goggle glasses next month with haulagraphic picture.

  3. Stupid story. When will all the analyses, explanations, theories, and groundless predictions about a recovery of AAPL end. All this is useless. The market has spoken and it’s done with Apple as the company it once was.

  4. Perhaps, but it’s just another reason of the day to explain the beating AAPL has been taken almost every day for the last ten weeks.

    When all else fails, focus on fundamentals which are the main reason for the swoon. As I have been saying, the market sees three fundamental problems in Apple: consecutive earnings misses, serious margins erosion, and chronic supply/production shortage, the last two of which are the main contributors to the earnings misses.

    Until Cook successfully shows the market that he is capable of solving the three problems, AAPL is dead money. There are two ways for Cook to prove his worth and win back investor confidence. He either publicly explains with sufficient details the problems and solutions now or releases excellent earnings and guidance to disprove doubters next month.

    I was hoping he would use the interview to address the problems, but that wasn’t the case. Investors will have to wait for earnings beats (top line, bottom line, and margins), which are not a done deal by a long shot given high analyst expectations. Cook’d better not miss earnings this time or it’s bloodbath. Investors apparently shows little confidence that Cook will be able to pull it off.

  5. So because Samsung tells the analysts that Apple orders have dropped, doesn’t mean sales are down. It means that Apple has got another supplier & are taking there business elsewhere.

  6. f’g anal-ysts.
    is enough not enough already?!
    they f’g the stock for NO reason but greed the last month.
    and it’s never enough to f’ AAPL when ALL competitors are left alone when they revolutionize or innovate nada!

    it makes you vomit that our society is so focus on destroying the good, increasing greed, not seeing a vision beyond our own assholes. its’ now wonder our nation is bankrupt & without any vision for the future. let’s stop blaming outsourcing and start thinking for peep’s sake!

    OB got elected twice now.
    his admin better stop helping bankers, jail the culprits.
    stop anal-yzing anal-ysts & reduce their powers.
    us people should boycott bankers & stock analysts.
    let them rott.
    what good did they ever do anyone!?
    society will survive without those schmucks.

    if anyone disputes that, so what.
    it matters not whether i have AAPL shares or not.
    the whole Apple & self-destruction focus, the lack of education, intelligence in analysis is just too much to bare at this point.
    it’s embarrassingly boring, stupid.

    if we want to save our country of the American Dream,
    1st we must stop being arrogant, greedy assholes.
    let’s restart our nation, reboot our culture.
    period.

  7. Apple doesn’t play “Wall Street” because they have plenty of money in the bank and have no debt. They don’t NEED stocks to be successful and Wall Street is punishing Apple for being successful without their help.

    SEC needs tio investigate Wall Street for kicking good and excellent companies to the ground with their money manipulations and tock churn attempts.

    Ever time someone sells stock, somebody else buys it. Somebody always “wins” the game of Monopoly. Follow the money.

  8. @@@@@ rolf
    Friday, December 14, 2012 – 6:10 pm

    “what did u say?? Stop the greed! so its ok for apple to screw the world by charging 6 times what the phones worth and then screwing u againj by forcing you to use itunes. Give me a break. Apple screwed themselves, and smart people will buy elsewhere. Maybe u dont like the fact there are many many smart people buying samsung , etc etc. GREEDY U SAY, BLOODY HYPOCRITE!!

    1. @crikeym8

      i understand your frustration but how long is your Android with no profits going to last you, if they’re bankrupt soon, no matter how many units they sell?!

      plus there’s no R&D possible with no profits.
      unless you mean the expensive iPhones pay for it?!

      plus you’re acting like a cheap stone-age Taliban Zealots. with plenty of zealous but brainless arguments.

      have you ever thought that Apple is not greedy.
      that Apple gives more than it takes.
      and lasts enough to give you more rather than go bankrupt so you feel cheated?

      ever thought your so-called Androids are scooters amongst iPhone formula1 cars?! VC McNamee poignantly argued that on Bloomberg today, see http://buff.ly/SX9YhK

      by the way, Apple did not hold a gun for anyone to buy the iPhone and certainly you lack iQ if you are only able to use iTunes for your content on iDevices.

      so please, stop embarrassing yourself, stfu, before you make a bigger fool of yourself. ignorance is not becoming.

  9. Well, mis-interpreted or not, Apple stock has taken a $ 200 PER SHARE HIT IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS, and hardly anyone in the community OR at Apple seems to give much of a hoot. Where I came from, half-a-million dollars up in smoke in under two months ACTUALLY MEANS SOMETHING !!!!

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