Apple at the crossroads?

“Apple investors aren’t going to like it, but it behooves them to consider “Can a Leopard Change its Spots,” Paul Sagawa’s critical analysis of the company’s competitive position vis a vis Google, Microsoft and Amazon,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune. “Sagawa, a former analyst at Stanford Bernstein, now covers technology, media and telecom for Sector & Sovereign Research in Stamford, CT.”

“Posted Nov. 19, the first trading day after Apple’s share price hit a nine-month low, his doomsday view is a bracing tour of the mindset of the traders who knocked $187 billion off the company’s market value in eight weeks,” P.E.D. reports. “‘Apple is at a crossroads,’ Sagawa begins. ‘After dominating the first decade of the millennium, the revolution that Apple started is shifting against it. The iPhone, with its single annual update and super premium price, has been run down from behind by a pack of rivals with segmented product ranges, 6 month product cycles and aggressive price points. Android phones now outsell Apple 5 to 1, and the iPad is on the same path, exacerbated by rivals willing to subsidize device sales in pursuit of e-commerce and advertising. At the same time, the nexus of the user experience is shifting off of the device and into the cloud, greatly disadvantaging Apple vs. its web-savvy rivals.'”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: If the following is being “run down by rivals,” more, please!

• Apple’s iPhone takes top spot from Google’s Android in U.S. smartphone market share – November 27, 2012
Study shows Apple iPad dominates with 98.1% of all tablet web traffic – September 28, 2012
Apple rakes in 71% of the world’s smartphone profits – September 8, 2012

Paul Sagawa’s so-called analysis has been iCal’ed for future use.


    1. yep – this is exactly the same kind of crap as an article I read the other day about the Surface where the writer actually wrote the following phrase – “…and it uses the most popular OS on the planet…” – he was actually referring to Win8 here [unbelievably!] – these guys are living proof that most tech commentators don’t really have a clue.

  1. When you “consult” you become an instant “expert” regardless of how stupid you really are.

    In every single hit generator piece like this, that I have seen, nobody ever considers Apple’s industry leading profits. Now, if Apple’s profits were to begin sliding, then these idiots might be on to something, but they aren’t, so they’re not.

  2. Just curious, is there any “one” model of smart phone that is outselling the iPhone? Every time I read one of these doomsday articles, it sounds as if the numbers are skewed by operating system vs model/manufacturer…

    1. they usually skew the numbers in a way that they can make the iphone or the iOS look bad.
      You will never see “analysts” comparing apples to apples, oranges to oranges.
      You will see OS (Android) vs iPhone or Actual Sales vs Shipments.
      But you will never see numbers like “Profits vs Profits”, “iPhone 5 vs Galaxy III”, iOS devices vs Android Devices, Actual usage of iOS vs Actual usage of Androids.

  3. “Android phones now outsell Apple 5 to 1, and the iPad is on the same path”

    I think he needs to understand that shipping products does not automatically translate into sales.

    Apple’s iPad marketshare went from over 90% in 2010 to 60% today not because they are selling less, but because more and more companies are shipping their own tablets now and flooding the market with them.

    It is impossible for any company to hold such a large marketshare in a consumer device market, unless it is a specialized device that no one else is interested in manufacturing.

    As real world usage statistics show, the iPad still accounts for over 90% in use. So really, there’s nothing to see here except another analyst being a jacka$$.

  4. Did any of these clowns ever attend any business classes? Here’s what John Paul Getty said, “Sound stocks, purchased for investment when their prices are low and held for the long pull, are very likely to produce high profits through dividends and increases in value. “

  5. “Still, if Jeff Bezos can convince the equity market to wait patiently for Amazon‟s profits, perhaps Tim Cook can do the same for Apple.” WTF, Apple makes more profits in a year that I think Amazon has made in its entire existence. Okay, okay, if that is hyperbole, please understand I am just practicing to be an analyst.

  6. 5-1? So?
    Does he not know iPhone is available on only half the carriers, and that Android is moe default OS for most feature phones that used to ship with symbian or whatever?

    And did he not just get the memo that iOS devices were responsable for most of the shopping done by ALL mobile devices in the World?

  7. Yea, that’s why Apple is sold out of all of it’s newest products.
    That’s why Apple’s iPhone 5 just went to the top of the leader board beating out thousands of Android models with only one model. That’s why Apple can’t make it’s product fast enough for the demand. Yea, poor Apple is hurting so bad with over 110 Billion dollars in the bank collecting interest and no debt.
    You sir are an ass, for writing this crap about Apple being anywhere near and cross of anything. There are to many facts that make you look really stupid.

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