Apple’s Q4: Canaccord Genuity’s Walkley called it; the indies miss again

“It was a great story while it lasted,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune. “For nearly three years the professional sell-side analysts who cover Apple (AAPL) for the big banks and brokerage houses got clobbered every quarter by a motley group of amateurs — bloggers, day traders and individual investors who bet on Apple to beat the Street’s consensus and hadn’t been wrong yet.”

“But the indie’s luck ran out last October when they came in high and Apple came in low,” P.E.D. reports. “They beat the professionals one more time in December, scored a draw in April, then lost in July and once again last night.”

P.E.D. reports, “The big winner this quarter was Canaccord Genuity’s T. Michael Walkley, whose estimate for Apple’s bottom line ($9.67) was right on the money and whose forecast for iPhone unit sales (26.92 million) was pretty darn close (actual sales: 26.91 million).”

Find out how the other analysts, pro and amateur alike, did in the full article here.


    1. AAPL Finance Board as posted by Zeke is one place. CNN’s Philip Elmer DeWitt and the Braeburn Group have been making closer ties over the past few years. AFB is open to public. Braeburn Group has a subset of members which regularly submit estimates to PED for comparison with Wall Street analysts. Braeburn is mainly a private discussion group, but is putting out some stuff for public to digest.

  1. … the continued downward trend of the price of AAPL. I wouldn’t be so bothered had I held off for another week or so, but … I didn’t. So, I lose some before I win some.
    20% by the end of next year? Sooner? The players can’t hold it down forever.

    1. Then be very careful and don’t try to make it all up quickly. Because Apple may not shoot up through the holiday season as was thought before. And it’s not the sure bet that it once was. It will be vulnerable from now on, just like other equities. But that time had to come and that time is now. Hope you made a bunch along the way. Good luck.

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