Catalysts driving apple to $800 by year end

“I have published on (and bought) Apple all the way down in the $590s, $580s and $560s. I bought more Apple at $532. Buying Apple on unexplained stock dips (ie, $85 in 2008) has proven fortuitous,” Darcy Travlos writes for Forbes. “I believe that today, with Apple in the $530-$540s, represents the same opportunity. Zig and build a position in Apple, while the rest of the (media) world is zagging and focused on Facebook. What does Apple have going for it?”

• China
• Enterprise
• Mobile & Revenue
• Products
• Earnings Momentum
• Disruptive Technology
• Increased Penetration (Halo Effect)
• Valuation

Each bullet point explained in the full article – recommended – here.

16 Comments

  1. Assuming Darcy purchased an equal number of shares each time, her recent activity would put her average purchase price somewhere around 565.50. Not a good position to be in should the market continue its move to the downside. I hope Darcy has a good exit strategy just in case.

      1. Really? Tell that to the tens of thousands who had no exit strategy when the market took a nose dive in 2008. Buy and hold hasn’t worked out very well for them. Most have portfolios that are valued well below where there were in 2007.

        1. Oh, but are you EVER wrong here, Mark!

          When AAPL nosedived from 199 to the low 80’s four+ years ago, friends of mine (who had bought @180) sold in a panic and lost their asses. I TOLD THEM just to sit tight, and everything would come back with a vengeance, but they didn’t listen. Well, sir, AAPL is back from those days! And every time I see these good folks down at the lake, they smack their foreheads and make the “L” sign there as a salute to my staying long. Woulda’, shoulda’, coulda’!

  2. Let me see if this helps it by being a little more specific…

    China: Means iPhone sales by China Mobile. Though not quite sure about chinese people jumping into the Mac bandwagon but, if this happens as well, good.

    Enterprise: Companies buying and/or using iPads and/or iPhones for their IT strategy implementations.

    Mobile & Revenue: What is this about? iCloud?? Drop this one, it is mixing up and also confusing. Revenue is a consequence of many of the other bullet points.

    Products: Does he mean new products in the pipe line? Sure, let it come.

    Earnings Momentum: Not so much. Momentum happens very much at the time of earnings report but, afterwards you never know.

    Disruptive Technology: I’d say it’s innovative and just works. However, from the so called Windows technology ‘lost decade’ or the Razors of the world stand point, yes Apple’s technology is very very disruptive.

    Increased Penetration (Halo Effect): People buying into/switching to Macs, or dumping their cellphone or smartphone for iPhone, because they bought iPod or iPad? Sure, it just takes time.

    Valuation: As of Friday 18th, 2012 closing price of $530.38 PE = 12.93 Which means investors are paying shy of 13 times for yearly earnings of $41.02 And a PE of 13 is considered good or attractive, specially if earnings will keep growing. And for a high growth tech company a PE of 13 is considered by many as company’s stock undervalued.

  3. The bullet point ‘Mobile & Revenue’ should really say ‘Digital Products and Online Services’.

    Only then you may realize it is refering to the iTunes store (music, movies, TV episodes, etc), the App Store, the iBooks thing, the Mac App store, and iCloud. I hope I’m not missing one here.

  4. Just as important, we must not forget about catalysts that could drive the price, god forbids, down or keep from going higher.

    Whether those catalytst are right or wrong, real or perceived, or just [market] manipulations and rumorology, they also have a drive.

    I remember the unpleasant one from the past, Mr. Jobs health (watery eyes or tears show up when remembering). And that was when stock was bouncing around $200!!! Now you know what happened.

    Nowdays, those catalysts are whether Apple will keep the innovative track moving forward, or whether wireless carriers phone subsidies are a concern for Apple, or production shortages, etc. etc. etc.

    Even existing so many positive and very few negative catalysts, it is very difficult to predict (at least for me) whether the stock price will bounce back or when, after taking a hit for whatever reason. Luckily (or logically?) it always comes back and surprisingly (or logically?) it goes higher.

    And keep in mind that catalysts come and go or can change over time, and so the earnings story in consequence.

  5. It’s not going to happen. Live with it. Maybe, just maybe, $680, and thats if Euroland magically stops deteriorating. I see economic disruption to the point where a ttm eps of 7 will be acceptable. And if that chimp is reelected, all bets are off, we swirl even more down the community organizer toilet, skid marks n all.

    1. you mean like the second term of GWB when the stock market dropped from 14K to 6500 points in less than a year and the U.S. was losing 750K a month?

      you mean something like that?

      Odd, the stock market has almost gained where it was when the Republican, (who had numerous business failings even with his sugar daddy friends, propping up Arbusto, amongst others. What kind of dumbass can’t find oil in Texas?) who also presided over the worse economic disaster in over 80 years.

      1. thats 750K jobs a month

        although it probably pointless to history, empirical data and facts to someone who just the first african american president a chimp.

        It seems a community organizer also saved the U.S. from a selected, not elected president. Bush v. Gore was unprecedented abuse of the supreme court creating an unconstitutional law that allowed Bush’s brother to stop the counting of votes so GWB to be selected for president.

  6. Aapl stock price will go up over time. The standard rule of thumb is that the stock will bounce around a low fit months and then shot up.

    The last jump was huge – 400 to 640 in a few months. My guesses that it could get to 800 inthe next jump.

    When I don’t know. But for me it doesn’t matter since I’m long on the stock and the average growth yoy is 10x what I get from my mutual funds at fidelity.

  7. Get ready to hold your breath anonymous xx, ’cause Mitt isn’t it in 2012.

    A European meltdown would depress stock markets worldwide. But Apple spends on R&D and exits economic downturns stronger than ever. Apple’s pile of liquid assets makes tha company stronger than ever. All Apple needs to do is defend its turf and continue to produce new products. The stock price will eventually take care of itself. Insanely great products are the key to success. SJ never worried much about the stock price – he focused on what he could control within Apple.

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