Underestimating Apple: Analyst consensus plays catch-up

“Analysts have been on the low side when it comes to estimating Apple’s (AAPL) earnings: The company has beaten consensus 24 out of the last 25 quarters,” Stephen Rosenman writes for Seeking Alpha.

“What’s not commonly realized is the extent of the misses. For instance, Apple has surpassed estimates a total of $6.36 for the last four quarters,” Rosenman writes. “But what does that really mean? What’s $6.36 anyway? In real money that equates to $5.9 billion of earnings surprises for Apple over the last four quarters. That’s $5.9 billion. Now, we’re talking real money.”

Rosenman writes, “No wonder analysts have been raising their estimates for Apple so quickly. They’ve boosted this year’s earnings forecast by more than $9 a share in 90 days. A whopping increase in yearly estimates of $8.7 billion. To put that in perspective, over the last 90 days, analyst consensus for fiscal year 2012 is going up on average $100 million a day. And this from guys who have underestimated quarterly earnings by an average 21%.”

Read more in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Carl H.” for the heads up.]

Related articles:
JP Morgan ups Apple price target; significantly boosts iPhone, iPad estimates – April 3, 2012
Piper Jaffray ups Apple price target to $910; sees world’s first trillion-dollar market cap – April 3, 2012
Topeka Capital initiates Apple coverage with ‘Buy’ rating, $1001 price target – April 2, 2012


  1. Interesting that one when analyst corrects for PBAJ on his TOST analysis, they all do.

    You have to wonder if they’re all staring at the same BACN graph when they make their PEAR predictions.

  2. Wall Street analysts – irrelevant. Maybe they’ll wake up to Apple’s secret – stay out of the financial and management clutches of Wall Street and focus on the total consumer experience through innovation, execution, quality …
    Wall Street is after the quick buck, and if it meant stripping all of the capital out and loading up on debt and putting out the shittiest product possible they’d do it.

    Maybe Apple will be able to lead the industry out of this ‘f**k the user attitude that MS inflicted on us so long ago.

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