“As the election cycle kicks into full swing, it is useful to take a look at what history tells us about equity market returns during presidential election years,” The Financial Lexicon writes for Seeking Alpha.
“Given that the popular S&P 500 (IVV) first debuted in its current form on March 4, 1957, I took a look at all presidential election years dating back to 1960,” The Financial Lexicon reports. “Since that time, there have been 13 presidential election years, 10 of which saw positive returns for the S&P 500 SPY and only three of which ended with negative returns. This 77% success rate is even more impressive when considering that 2000 and 2008 declines can be attributed to the equity markets finally realizing there were bubbles that needed popping (tech and excessive leverage) and stocks reacting accordingly.”
“In the S&P 500, Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Apple (AAPL) are currently the top-weighted stocks at 3.51% and 3.36% respectively, and will have the most influence of any two stocks on S&P 500 returns in 2012,” The Financial Lexicon writes. “Will oil prices stay at triple-digit levels, helping XOM to break out above its 2011 high of $88.23, thereby helping to pull the S&P 500 up with it? With respect to Apple, perhaps the single most loved stock in the history of world equity markets, it’s hard to even think of a reason why this stock wouldn’t just keep going higher. People are obsessed with its products, its cash hoard is large and growing, and its stock continues to keep making higher highs and higher lows since March 2009.”
The Financial Lexicon writes, “”What in the world could go wrong for Apple and its massive 15%+ weighting in the Nasdaq 100? Perhaps I am grasping at straws, but even though the thought of incurring the wrath of untold numbers of smitten Apple investors is enough to strike fear into the heart of any writer, I will nevertheless ask the following four questions regarding Apple’s stock: Are growth investors already all-in on the stock? If Apple doesn’t relent and begin to pay a dividend, will it have trouble attracting new types of investors going forward? Why is the forward P/E so low? And, do you think there will be a multiple expansion going forward given how well-known the amazing Apple story already is? Think about these things as the year progresses. Whatever lies ahead for Apple’s stock in 2012 may very well also be the future of the Nasdaq 100 and other major market averages.”
Read more in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews readers too numerous to mention individually for the heads up.]
We all know it was horrible the last one with Bush!in office. My niece is learning the names of presidents, and I taught her to say “yucky Bush.”
Maobma is the worst president ever. You scum sucking leaches that love socialism are in for a rude awaking in November with a landslide defeat for this cretan Marxist.
I think SOMEONE is not getting enough fiber in his diet…..
Nah, he just reached his government daily food allowance of Obama ‘bullshit’! He’ll be better when he’s stopped being fed that crap in Nov. 2012.
So who you gonna vote for halfwit? The former governor of the most liberal state in the union, the guy that sent jobs to China and is ostensibly the architect of Obamacare?
Here… write this down, no breeding with your sister. Might give your kids a chance.
Right. The Right doesn’t really have a Right candidate. It’s ironic.
By the way, how’s Annie?
Well they have insanitorum, but he’s more of a frothy goo than a contender.
Probably shouldn’t underestimate the philandering chicken hawk Newt either, it is his PAC that released the nice video about Romneys exploits at Bain Capital this week.
And you have Maobama, the communist, dictator, wanabe. The guy who wants to decimate the US and it’s constitution. Rick Santorum would be spectacular as president. He would protect the constitution and private property rights. We will all be better off with whoever is voted from the Republican pack. Maobama and liberals want to make everyone dependent on the government to collapse the system and dismantle the US as we know it. Anyone who can’t see what’s going on is a brain dead, zombie, liberal drone. Romney is not the best choice but he’s so far and above any liberal being President that we’ll settle for him over agonizing under Maobama.
Obama makes Lenin look like a Capitalist.
The Kenyan Marxist is a one-termer, if he makes it that long.
Marxist, you have made a public and actionable threat against the President of the United States. I have no doubt that the FBI is searching for you. Good riddance, treasonous idiot.
Have you heard of impeachment Queen Smell???? He deserves it more than any president. The guy is lawless. You liberal scum bags try to do everything and anything you can to try to silence your critics. Screw you.
Where did Marxist ever say he threatened Nobama? Where were all you liberal dirt bags when the liberal aholes made that movie about George Bush? Crickets and silence from you freaks. I assume Marxist meant he should be impeached.
You are playing fast and loose and had better hope that the NSA is not keying on your suggestive phraseology “if he makes it that long”. You think I’m kidding, you forgot about 9/11, halfwit. This is the fucking internet, not your middle school playground..
You might consider backing off on your implicit threats, which in most any country other than the U.S. would have you already on the run. Freedom of speech is a profound right but it has clearly defined limits. Check the U.S. Constitution, or better yet, check your own common sense.
When was threatening death of a president covered in the freedom of speech?
Strike the remark about the U.S. Constitution. Freedom of speech is precious. Still, one should be careful with language that might perk up the ears of the Secret Service. KSH, thanks.
Marxist, huh? In that case, where the hell’s my money? Why is my proletarian ass still broke? Why is the USA still run by the bourgeoisie instead of being a direct democracy governed by the masses?
Obama’s gotta be the shittiest Marxist ever.
Did he confuse the Communist Manifesto with Atlas Shrugged?
Actually the article says that stocks like election years except when they don’t like election years.
LEGAL vs. JOSE
ILLEGAL
You
have two families: “Joe Legal”
and “Jose
Illegal”.
Both
families have two parents, two children, and live in
California .
Joe Legal works in construction,
has a Social Security Number and makes $25.00 per hour with
taxes deducted.
Jose
Illegal also works in construction, has NO Social Security
Number, and gets paid $15.00 cash “under the
table”.
Ready?
Now pay attention…
Joe
Legal: $25.00 per hour x 40 hours = $1000.00 per week, or
$52,000.00 per year. Now take 30% away for state and federal
tax; Joe Legal now has
$31,231.00.
Jose
Illegal: $15.00 per hour x 40 hours = $600.00 per week, or
$31,200.00 per year. Jose Illegal pays no taxes. Jose
Illegal now has $31,200.00.
Joe
Legal pays medical and dental insurance with limited
coverage for his family at $600.00 per month, or $7,200.00
per year. Joe Legal now has
$24,031.00.
Jose
Illegal has full medical and dental coverage through the
state and local clinics at a cost of $0.00 per year. Jose
Illegal still has $31,200.00.
Joe
Legal makes too much money and is not eligible for food
stamps or welfare. Joe Legal pays $500.00 per month for
food, or $6,000.00 per year. Joe Legal now has
$18,031.00.
Jose
Illegal has no documented income and is eligible for food
stamps and welfare. Jose Illegal still has
$31,200.00.
Joe
Legal pays rent of $1,200.00 per month, or $14,400.00 per
year. Joe Legal now has
$9,631.00.
Jose
Illegal receives a $500.00 per month federal rent subsidy.
Jose Illegal pays out that $500.00 per month, or $6,000.00
per year. Jose Illegal still has $31,200.00.
Joe
Legal pays $200.00 per month, or $2,400.00 for insurance.
Joe Legal now has
$7,231.00.
Jose
Illegal says, “We don’t need no stinkin’ insurance!” and
still has $31,200.00.
Joe
Legal has to make his $7,231.00 stretch to pay utilities,
gasoline, etc.
Jose
Illegal has to make his $31,200.00 stretch to pay utilities,
gasoline, and what he sends out of the country every
month.
Joe
Legal now works overtime on Saturdays or gets a part time
job after work.
Jose
Illegal has nights and weekends off to enjoy with his
family.
Joe
Legal’s and Jose
Illegal’s children
both attend the same school. Joe Legal pays for his
children’s lunches while José
Illegal’s children
get a government sponsored
lunch. Jose
Illegal’s children
have an after school ESL program. Joe Legal’s children go
home.
Joe Legal and Jose
Illegal both
enjoy the same police and fire services, but Joe paid for
them and Jose did not pay.
Do you get it,
now?
If you vote for or support any politician that
supports illegal aliens…You are part of the
problem!
It’s way PAST time to take a stand for
America and Americans!
Not this again…
You folks are soooooooo lame. Lame. Lame. Lame. You live in a lame little world called Echo that supports everything that you say. You would know a fact, or reality from fantasy, if it slapped you in the ass and made you cry like a baby.
Don’t give up on this site because of that, kingmel. I depend on you and a few others for actual guidance here at MDN on actual issues that matter. Any garden can be host to potato bugs. Just step on them, and keep planting.
Issues that matter—after the U.S. presidential election, everyone starts responding to the smelling salts, comes around, and goes back to their technical jobs. The political trolls, after a grace period of gloating, crawl back under the slab of schist.
If the jackasses take over MDN, then the terrorists win.
Yes we need to keep these liberal-commies in check. Good point Jane.
Sounds like you’re talking about yourself Queen Smell. Look in the mirror. It is an absolute fact that liberals always lie about everything they do and plan to do. And by the way, you suck.
Queen Smell,
When do you liberals decide you have taken enough money from the hard working to give it to the system beating leaches that you have created. What happens when everyone is on government assistance and there is now no one to pay for it all? You liberals are herding yourselves towards total failure of the US. Please let me know when you progressives think we have progressed enough for you to stop making things worse.
Look in the mirror Queeny.
Obama is 100% responsible for the Marines urinating on the dead Afghan terrorists.
I don’t get it. We have an illegal war trumped up on a lot of phony noise about WMD’s, we go and kill a bunch of people (maybe 10 innocents for every “bad guy”) but what gets you upset is someone gets peed on, AFTER we’ve already killed them? How is peeing on someone worse than killing them?
Yeah, that’s right….not. If you could even hold a President responsible, then I would start with the one who kicked off the war and sent the U.S. military over there in the first place. If not that President, then try the one who started the second war in Iraq which took resources away from the primary conflict, extending both of them for a decade and sending the country on a downward spiral. Only after that could you possibly get to the current President who is guiding a careful withdrawal from both of these wars and has is clearly *not* responsible for this event.
I would be glad to slap some sense into you.
No Queen smell, Maobama said Afghanistan is his war, not Iraq. So you see Queen Smell, that makes the commie in chief responsible. What about Libya and that war that Maobama started and the one over there in Africa?? You are such a freaking hypocrite it’s pathetic.
Whole heartedly agree. He’s the commander in chief and the buck stops with him. For all we know he directed the Marines to do that.
It is the illigeal alien in the White House that is the problem.
You’re right. Obama is the illegitimate commie son of Joe McCarthy, incubated in Hawaii to take over the country and allow commie black people and such to ruin the USA.
I heard they just like Leap Year….one more day to trade!
Der Der Der…
Hey, look, Superman showed up!!!
It is just because you are so severely mediocre that I seem like superman.
Not your fault. Thanks tho.
Hardly. TowerTone is a patriot and extremely intelligent. You shinolasht, are the exact opposite. You are not Superman you are SuperCommie-drone. Go crawl back under your rock.
NO, no, no, Ellen, you have shinolashow all wrong.
We are ALL mediocre in his presence.
He could fly a jet better than any pilot just from knowing how to fold a paper-plane.
He could perform surgery better than any doctor just from playing Operation as a child.
Which is why he could design, build and operate an ISP better than ANYONE who merely THINKS they have knowledge in the field, regardless of the fact that he has no prior experience with designing in the field with AutoCAD, building on power company’s right-of-ways, or maintaining such in a real world environment that includes weather, vehicle accidents, theft, and defective parts in towns that range in size from 10,000 to 100,000.
So you see, Ellen, just being a network IT guy from a finance company has not kept shinolashow from stretching to his true potential. He is one part MacGyver, two parts Jarod the Pretender, and 97 percent Cliff Clavin…..
MDN is using this article as troll bait. From now on, I’m not clicking on these obvious political headlines. I advise everyone who gets annoyed by the BS political agendas found in the comments sections of these kind of articles do the same on MDN so they realize hit whoring does no good. 😉
I am totally against hitting whores.
yeah. It’s like 5 bucks more….
You must hit like a girl. You got a discount.
I’ll give you a pass on that TT since you are sincere, are funny, are passionate, and have helped me in the past.
Just don’t leave in disgust like Dude McFarland and others have done, MDN has a special energy that is worth preserving, I think.
Thanks, but I hope you realize comments like I made are to highlight the absurd (plus to set kingmel up for a limp-wristed punch line).
And don’t worry, I leave in disgust all the time (which is why I return…)
You do have a good sense of the absurd. Which is appreciated. As are your tech insights. Thanks so much.
What about his political insights janeshpard????? You don’t like those do you you good little socialist……
I do like them, Mandy. Whatever gave you the idea that I didn’t?
I like strength and passion backed up by intelligence and humor. As for compassion and caring: it depends.
We could have save trillions on wars if we’d just turned Afghanistan and the Middle East into enormous glass factories. Mission accomplished indeed!
I don’t think that would have worked
Come now, you don’t think we are at war for the reasons they say we are do you? No profits in large swaths of glass. Look at the Iran situation right now, all the blather and sabre rattling over nukes is a cover for the real reason we are about to let bombs fly. AN OIL PIPELINE..Google it, do some research, they are building it, we don’t like it, it will interfere with profits. Time to stoke up a fire…
Damn, MDN. Quit this crap. There is less and less reason to come to this forum. I miss the Mac User days a lot.
Queen Smell, Don’t let the door hit you on the way out. Jack Ass.
Notice Queen Smell, card carrying member of the supposed party of openness (yeah right – most close minded group ever), should be open to all ideas, even conservative ones. But no, Queen Smell wants to get MDN to eliminate all debate. Censor and use language to make it illegal for your conservatives opponents to operate. You are really sick and so are your liberal brethren. Can’t wait for November.
Your Reality Check is on the mail®
Consider that there are in-duh-viduals who are in the background who control: Money – all aspects, Military – support and profit from both sides in any conflict, government – put in power whom they want to keep their money train going. These people have been doing this for generations and have not concern as to who is in power. Period.
President Eisenhower, in his final address to the nation, warned against this malicious pernicious gang of banksters and militarist. His warning went unheeded because we as a people were diverted – again and again by, you guessed it – war.
This isn’t about the Republican or Democrat party special “person” to be elected. (Remember your vote doesn’t count – it is the Electoral College that picks the President) It is about unseen power.
Why the financial bubble? What are these banksters trying to hide? What’s going on somewhere else that they don’t want us to see?
I am not a conspiracy theorist. I do pay attention. What is the purpose of being divisive on a “Mac Tech Site” about politics? So that we will not pay attention when information comes to us that may change our vision of the status quo.
This isn’t about Obama or Romney or any other pundit. It is about maintaining power in the shadows. And removing more and more of our freedoms. Fighting in Viet Nam (I did – twice), Iraq, Afghanistan, or anywhere else does not protect our freedoms. It only makes money for the ones who never set foot on shore.
Read the definition of a “terrorist” and you may be surprised at how many folks qualify.
As for Apple shares rising and falling – I have a few that I bought a while back and they are doing OK. I think I will keep them. It’s like a good Apple tree, you never want to cut it down when it is giving you such delicious fruit.
Cheers
I’m sure you are right but it does make a difference who is elected to some degree. Liberals want to drive us right off the cliff right now.
TT? You weren’t ‘t serious ? Well thx for saving me 5 bucks anyway…
The USA seems like such a cool place. Your pres is a commie, you gt to pee on Afghan prisoners, half the country hates the other half, and you pay illegals better than native Americans. Canada is so boring when put beside you. I’m moving tomorrow.
Jane…ignore the riff-raff. Just people with serious holes in their lives.
Buster – LIberals are destroying the US as fast as they can. Just look to Greece and Europe to see where they want to take us. I know you’re one of them based on your prior posts. The US will vote liberals out in November. Even though it’s obvious that you aren’t moving here, do us a favor please stay up there Canada.
Then again…. They also say that stocks love the third year of a first term president and look at last year and what did we see!
Simulation airplane video games body the way for you to feel the liberty of airfare … Stivenson, Vlad “spice up Games- modern day document lifelike dolls.” liven up Games- modern-day paper baby dolls …Paper Plane Game