Stocks tend to like U.S. presidential election years

“As the election cycle kicks into full swing, it is useful to take a look at what history tells us about equity market returns during presidential election years,” The Financial Lexicon writes for Seeking Alpha.

“Given that the popular S&P 500 (IVV) first debuted in its current form on March 4, 1957, I took a look at all presidential election years dating back to 1960,” The Financial Lexicon reports. “Since that time, there have been 13 presidential election years, 10 of which saw positive returns for the S&P 500 SPY and only three of which ended with negative returns. This 77% success rate is even more impressive when considering that 2000 and 2008 declines can be attributed to the equity markets finally realizing there were bubbles that needed popping (tech and excessive leverage) and stocks reacting accordingly.”

“In the S&P 500, Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Apple (AAPL) are currently the top-weighted stocks at 3.51% and 3.36% respectively, and will have the most influence of any two stocks on S&P 500 returns in 2012,” The Financial Lexicon writes. “Will oil prices stay at triple-digit levels, helping XOM to break out above its 2011 high of $88.23, thereby helping to pull the S&P 500 up with it? With respect to Apple, perhaps the single most loved stock in the history of world equity markets, it’s hard to even think of a reason why this stock wouldn’t just keep going higher. People are obsessed with its products, its cash hoard is large and growing, and its stock continues to keep making higher highs and higher lows since March 2009.”

The Financial Lexicon writes, “”What in the world could go wrong for Apple and its massive 15%+ weighting in the Nasdaq 100? Perhaps I am grasping at straws, but even though the thought of incurring the wrath of untold numbers of smitten Apple investors is enough to strike fear into the heart of any writer, I will nevertheless ask the following four questions regarding Apple’s stock: Are growth investors already all-in on the stock? If Apple doesn’t relent and begin to pay a dividend, will it have trouble attracting new types of investors going forward? Why is the forward P/E so low? And, do you think there will be a multiple expansion going forward given how well-known the amazing Apple story already is? Think about these things as the year progresses. Whatever lies ahead for Apple’s stock in 2012 may very well also be the future of the Nasdaq 100 and other major market averages.”

Read more in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews readers too numerous to mention individually for the heads up.]

61 Comments

        1. Nah, he just reached his government daily food allowance of Obama ‘bullshit’! He’ll be better when he’s stopped being fed that crap in Nov. 2012.

      1. So who you gonna vote for halfwit? The former governor of the most liberal state in the union, the guy that sent jobs to China and is ostensibly the architect of Obamacare?

        Here… write this down, no breeding with your sister. Might give your kids a chance.

        1. Well they have insanitorum, but he’s more of a frothy goo than a contender.

          Probably shouldn’t underestimate the philandering chicken hawk Newt either, it is his PAC that released the nice video about Romneys exploits at Bain Capital this week.

        2. And you have Maobama, the communist, dictator, wanabe. The guy who wants to decimate the US and it’s constitution. Rick Santorum would be spectacular as president. He would protect the constitution and private property rights. We will all be better off with whoever is voted from the Republican pack. Maobama and liberals want to make everyone dependent on the government to collapse the system and dismantle the US as we know it. Anyone who can’t see what’s going on is a brain dead, zombie, liberal drone. Romney is not the best choice but he’s so far and above any liberal being President that we’ll settle for him over agonizing under Maobama.

        1. Have you heard of impeachment Queen Smell???? He deserves it more than any president. The guy is lawless. You liberal scum bags try to do everything and anything you can to try to silence your critics. Screw you.

        2. Where did Marxist ever say he threatened Nobama? Where were all you liberal dirt bags when the liberal aholes made that movie about George Bush? Crickets and silence from you freaks. I assume Marxist meant he should be impeached.

        3. You are playing fast and loose and had better hope that the NSA is not keying on your suggestive phraseology “if he makes it that long”. You think I’m kidding, you forgot about 9/11, halfwit. This is the fucking internet, not your middle school playground..

        4. You might consider backing off on your implicit threats, which in most any country other than the U.S. would have you already on the run. Freedom of speech is a profound right but it has clearly defined limits. Check the U.S. Constitution, or better yet, check your own common sense.

        5. Strike the remark about the U.S. Constitution. Freedom of speech is precious. Still, one should be careful with language that might perk up the ears of the Secret Service. KSH, thanks.

        6. Marxist, huh? In that case, where the hell’s my money? Why is my proletarian ass still broke? Why is the USA still run by the bourgeoisie instead of being a direct democracy governed by the masses?

          Obama’s gotta be the shittiest Marxist ever.

          Did he confuse the Communist Manifesto with Atlas Shrugged?

  1. LEGAL vs. JOSE
    ILLEGAL

    You
    have two families: “Joe Legal”
    and “Jose
    Illegal”.
    Both
    families have two parents, two children, and live in
    California .

    Joe Legal works in construction,
    has a Social Security Number and makes $25.00 per hour with
    taxes deducted.

    Jose
    Illegal also works in construction, has NO Social Security
    Number, and gets paid $15.00 cash “under the
    table”.

    Ready?
    Now pay attention…

    Joe
    Legal: $25.00 per hour x 40 hours = $1000.00 per week, or
    $52,000.00 per year. Now take 30% away for state and federal
    tax; Joe Legal now has
    $31,231.00.

    Jose
    Illegal: $15.00 per hour x 40 hours = $600.00 per week, or
    $31,200.00 per year. Jose Illegal pays no taxes. Jose
    Illegal now has $31,200.00.

    Joe
    Legal pays medical and dental insurance with limited
    coverage for his family at $600.00 per month, or $7,200.00
    per year. Joe Legal now has
    $24,031.00.

    Jose
    Illegal has full medical and dental coverage through the
    state and local clinics at a cost of $0.00 per year. Jose
    Illegal still has $31,200.00.

    Joe
    Legal makes too much money and is not eligible for food
    stamps or welfare. Joe Legal pays $500.00 per month for
    food, or $6,000.00 per year. Joe Legal now has
    $18,031.00.

    Jose
    Illegal has no documented income and is eligible for food
    stamps and welfare. Jose Illegal still has
    $31,200.00.

    Joe
    Legal pays rent of $1,200.00 per month, or $14,400.00 per
    year. Joe Legal now has
    $9,631.00.

    Jose
    Illegal receives a $500.00 per month federal rent subsidy.
    Jose Illegal pays out that $500.00 per month, or $6,000.00
    per year. Jose Illegal still has $31,200.00.

    Joe
    Legal pays $200.00 per month, or $2,400.00 for insurance.
    Joe Legal now has
    $7,231.00.

    Jose
    Illegal says, “We don’t need no stinkin’ insurance!” and
    still has $31,200.00.

    Joe
    Legal has to make his $7,231.00 stretch to pay utilities,
    gasoline, etc.

    Jose
    Illegal has to make his $31,200.00 stretch to pay utilities,
    gasoline, and what he sends out of the country every
    month.

    Joe
    Legal now works overtime on Saturdays or gets a part time
    job after work.

    Jose
    Illegal has nights and weekends off to enjoy with his
    family.

    Joe
    Legal’s and Jose
    Illegal’s children
    both attend the same school. Joe Legal pays for his
    children’s lunches while José
    Illegal’s children
    get a government sponsored
    lunch. Jose
    Illegal’s children
    have an after school ESL program. Joe Legal’s children go
    home.

    Joe Legal and Jose
    Illegal both
    enjoy the same police and fire services, but Joe paid for
    them and Jose did not pay.

    Do you get it,
    now?

    If you vote for or support any politician that
    supports illegal aliens…You are part of the
    problem!

    It’s way PAST time to take a stand for
    America and Americans!

    1. Not this again…

      You folks are soooooooo lame. Lame. Lame. Lame. You live in a lame little world called Echo that supports everything that you say. You would know a fact, or reality from fantasy, if it slapped you in the ass and made you cry like a baby.

      1. Don’t give up on this site because of that, kingmel. I depend on you and a few others for actual guidance here at MDN on actual issues that matter. Any garden can be host to potato bugs. Just step on them, and keep planting.

        Issues that matter—after the U.S. presidential election, everyone starts responding to the smelling salts, comes around, and goes back to their technical jobs. The political trolls, after a grace period of gloating, crawl back under the slab of schist.

      2. Sounds like you’re talking about yourself Queen Smell. Look in the mirror. It is an absolute fact that liberals always lie about everything they do and plan to do. And by the way, you suck.

      3. Queen Smell,

        When do you liberals decide you have taken enough money from the hard working to give it to the system beating leaches that you have created. What happens when everyone is on government assistance and there is now no one to pay for it all? You liberals are herding yourselves towards total failure of the US. Please let me know when you progressives think we have progressed enough for you to stop making things worse.

    1. I don’t get it. We have an illegal war trumped up on a lot of phony noise about WMD’s, we go and kill a bunch of people (maybe 10 innocents for every “bad guy”) but what gets you upset is someone gets peed on, AFTER we’ve already killed them? How is peeing on someone worse than killing them?

    2. Yeah, that’s right….not. If you could even hold a President responsible, then I would start with the one who kicked off the war and sent the U.S. military over there in the first place. If not that President, then try the one who started the second war in Iraq which took resources away from the primary conflict, extending both of them for a decade and sending the country on a downward spiral. Only after that could you possibly get to the current President who is guiding a careful withdrawal from both of these wars and has is clearly *not* responsible for this event.

      I would be glad to slap some sense into you.

      1. No Queen smell, Maobama said Afghanistan is his war, not Iraq. So you see Queen Smell, that makes the commie in chief responsible. What about Libya and that war that Maobama started and the one over there in Africa?? You are such a freaking hypocrite it’s pathetic.

    1. You’re right. Obama is the illegitimate commie son of Joe McCarthy, incubated in Hawaii to take over the country and allow commie black people and such to ruin the USA.

        1. Hardly. TowerTone is a patriot and extremely intelligent. You shinolasht, are the exact opposite. You are not Superman you are SuperCommie-drone. Go crawl back under your rock.

        2. NO, no, no, Ellen, you have shinolashow all wrong.
          We are ALL mediocre in his presence.

          He could fly a jet better than any pilot just from knowing how to fold a paper-plane.

          He could perform surgery better than any doctor just from playing Operation as a child.

          Which is why he could design, build and operate an ISP better than ANYONE who merely THINKS they have knowledge in the field, regardless of the fact that he has no prior experience with designing in the field with AutoCAD, building on power company’s right-of-ways, or maintaining such in a real world environment that includes weather, vehicle accidents, theft, and defective parts in towns that range in size from 10,000 to 100,000.

          So you see, Ellen, just being a network IT guy from a finance company has not kept shinolashow from stretching to his true potential. He is one part MacGyver, two parts Jarod the Pretender, and 97 percent Cliff Clavin…..

  2. MDN is using this article as troll bait. From now on, I’m not clicking on these obvious political headlines. I advise everyone who gets annoyed by the BS political agendas found in the comments sections of these kind of articles do the same on MDN so they realize hit whoring does no good. 😉

        1. I’ll give you a pass on that TT since you are sincere, are funny, are passionate, and have helped me in the past.

          Just don’t leave in disgust like Dude McFarland and others have done, MDN has a special energy that is worth preserving, I think.

        2. Thanks, but I hope you realize comments like I made are to highlight the absurd (plus to set kingmel up for a limp-wristed punch line).

          And don’t worry, I leave in disgust all the time (which is why I return…)

        3. I do like them, Mandy. Whatever gave you the idea that I didn’t?

          I like strength and passion backed up by intelligence and humor. As for compassion and caring: it depends.

    1. Come now, you don’t think we are at war for the reasons they say we are do you? No profits in large swaths of glass. Look at the Iran situation right now, all the blather and sabre rattling over nukes is a cover for the real reason we are about to let bombs fly. AN OIL PIPELINE..Google it, do some research, they are building it, we don’t like it, it will interfere with profits. Time to stoke up a fire…

    1. Notice Queen Smell, card carrying member of the supposed party of openness (yeah right – most close minded group ever), should be open to all ideas, even conservative ones. But no, Queen Smell wants to get MDN to eliminate all debate. Censor and use language to make it illegal for your conservatives opponents to operate. You are really sick and so are your liberal brethren. Can’t wait for November.

  3. Your Reality Check is on the mail®

    Consider that there are in-duh-viduals who are in the background who control: Money – all aspects, Military – support and profit from both sides in any conflict, government – put in power whom they want to keep their money train going. These people have been doing this for generations and have not concern as to who is in power. Period.

    President Eisenhower, in his final address to the nation, warned against this malicious pernicious gang of banksters and militarist. His warning went unheeded because we as a people were diverted – again and again by, you guessed it – war.

    This isn’t about the Republican or Democrat party special “person” to be elected. (Remember your vote doesn’t count – it is the Electoral College that picks the President) It is about unseen power.

    Why the financial bubble? What are these banksters trying to hide? What’s going on somewhere else that they don’t want us to see?

    I am not a conspiracy theorist. I do pay attention. What is the purpose of being divisive on a “Mac Tech Site” about politics? So that we will not pay attention when information comes to us that may change our vision of the status quo.

    This isn’t about Obama or Romney or any other pundit. It is about maintaining power in the shadows. And removing more and more of our freedoms. Fighting in Viet Nam (I did – twice), Iraq, Afghanistan, or anywhere else does not protect our freedoms. It only makes money for the ones who never set foot on shore.

    Read the definition of a “terrorist” and you may be surprised at how many folks qualify.

    As for Apple shares rising and falling – I have a few that I bought a while back and they are doing OK. I think I will keep them. It’s like a good Apple tree, you never want to cut it down when it is giving you such delicious fruit.

    Cheers

  4. The USA seems like such a cool place. Your pres is a commie, you gt to pee on Afghan prisoners, half the country hates the other half, and you pay illegals better than native Americans. Canada is so boring when put beside you. I’m moving tomorrow.

    Jane…ignore the riff-raff. Just people with serious holes in their lives.

    1. Buster – LIberals are destroying the US as fast as they can. Just look to Greece and Europe to see where they want to take us. I know you’re one of them based on your prior posts. The US will vote liberals out in November. Even though it’s obvious that you aren’t moving here, do us a favor please stay up there Canada.

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.