Horace Dediu reports for Asymco, “Here are my fourth calendar quarter [Apple’s fiscal Q112] forecasts (with y/y growth in parentheses).”
iPhone units: 35.7 million (120%)
Macs: 5.2 million (27%)
iPads: 14.7 million (100%)
iPods: 13.6 million (-30%)
Music (incl. app) rev. growth: 22%
Peripherals rev. growth: 25%
Software rev. growth: 25%
Total revenues: $44.6 billion (growth: 67%)
GM: 42.0%
EPS: $12.3 (91%)
Dediu reports, “This earnings value would imply a trailing twelve months’ EPS of about 33.5. At $390/share the P/E would be 11.6. Cash and equivalents may increase to $90 billion.”
Read how Deidu arrived at these estimates in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]
Thanks for the citation, but can you spell the last name “Dediu” in the title.
You’re lucky it wasn’t spelled ‘Deadyou.’
As always, these analysts play “Bull” game. Some of these figures might intentionally overestimated to further play on share prices raises and falls to fix profits and start over again.
Like anyone else, Horace can be wrong … but I do not believe that he’s playing any kind of game.
Before you make such claims, you should read some of his very serious research.
I read this “very serious research” — it is so plain and abstract (just play on Apple’s YoY and QoY growth rates) so it obviously not serious. He can not really think that iPhones will sell 37 million — this market is by far not that capable for this level of sales currently.
I am not saying that he is necessary superconscious about overestimating, but the result is the same: raising expectations and stock price so the clients would sell it right before quarter result announcements, thus fixing profit, and after stock will fall with “disappointing” (though actually by far record breaking) results the same clients would buy stock cheap and the play would startover again.
You were right, derss?
apple couldn’t possibly sell 37 million iPhones in a quarter.
from their press release yesterday – 1/24/2012
“The Company sold 37.04 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 128 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter.”
they actually sold 40,000 more than 37 million. Dediu was so wrong. I hope you remind of his miscalculation or did you Dad take your computer away from you?
You have to forgive this man his enthusiasm of all things Apple but these numbers seem a bit too large. Apple will mostly guide with the Wall Street’s paid analysts numbers. Dediu views the Apple world through rose-colored glasses. He’s been wrong for the last two quarters and I wonder if he has any stake in Apple like some of us do.
I honestly wish Apple shareholders the best of luck, but appears Apple’s sales numbers are getting a bit out of control and expectations are growing by the day. It’s turning out to be an ugly setting of an Apple shareholder bloodbath of missed expectations. It’s getting harder and harder for Apple to meet Wall Street’s expectations so even spectacular numbers will be a disappointment. I’ve reached the sad conclusion that WS is rigging Apple to fail so potential investors will stay away from the stock and the hedge funds can keep Apple stock as their money-making puppet. Apple’s share price ceiling is now fixed and latecomers are pretty much screwed.
Oh here we go again…..number adjusting….anaysts pulling sales figures out of the sky……
Will Apple will have a record quarter?
Do bears shit in the woods.
Horace,
Sir, I apologise for those idiots above and any that follow in a similar vain. Keep up your excellent work.
I sugest they at least check out your “experiment” and rejudge you on your “previous”.
+∞