“There are several methods I turn to when estimating device sales,” Horace Deidu reports for Asymco. “The first is to look at so-called top-down views of the demand… This Approach yields an estimate of 225 million iOS devices to be sold in 2012.”
“The second approach is to look at supply,” Deidu reports. “Using this method I currently estimate 260 million iOS units for 2012.”
Deidu reports, “The third approach is to attempt to measure customers’ loyalties and competitiveness of vendors. If we know the probability of upgrades and the historic split between ‘new’ and ‘existing’ users then we can roll the forecast forward… This yields a forecast of 280 million iOS devices to be sold in 2012.”
Much more in the full article, including the usual excellent charts and graphs, here.
MacDailyNews Take: Perhaps this sort of reality check will help to jolt AAPL out of its irrational stupor?