“Tim Cook [last week stated] that half of all iPhones shipped were iPhone 4,” Horace Dediu reports for Asymco. “I first estimated that this past quarter (ending September) included about 22.3 million units. That makes the total iPhones to end of Sept 151.3 million. Half would be about 75 million.”
This mix implies that the following shipments by variant (through end of Sept 2011):
• iPhone 1: 6.1 million
• iPhone 3G: 24.4 million
• iPhone 3GS: 45.4 million
• iPhone 4: 75.4 million
Dediu reports, “I created a probability distribution (PD) which suggests the likelihood that the phones purchased in that quarter get upgraded in the next 12 months. I created two such PDs… The PD1 assumption yields 36 million units… [PD2] leads to about 36.2 million units upgraded in the next 12 months. Very similar to PD1 but approached from a different angle.”
“It lets us calibrate our forecast for iPhone sales next few quarters. My own estimate stood at 140 million prior to this analysis,” Dediu reports. “Is it reasonable? … Yes.”
Much more in the full article – recommended – here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Kristian” for the heads up.]