“Tim Cook [last week stated] that half of all iPhones shipped were iPhone 4,” Horace Dediu reports for Asymco. “I first estimated that this past quarter (ending September) included about 22.3 million units. That makes the total iPhones to end of Sept 151.3 million. Half would be about 75 million.”
This mix implies that the following shipments by variant (through end of Sept 2011):
• iPhone 1: 6.1 million
• iPhone 3G: 24.4 million
• iPhone 3GS: 45.4 million
• iPhone 4: 75.4 million
Dediu reports, “I created a probability distribution (PD) which suggests the likelihood that the phones purchased in that quarter get upgraded in the next 12 months. I created two such PDs… The PD1 assumption yields 36 million units… [PD2] leads to about 36.2 million units upgraded in the next 12 months. Very similar to PD1 but approached from a different angle.”
“It lets us calibrate our forecast for iPhone sales next few quarters. My own estimate stood at 140 million prior to this analysis,” Dediu reports. “Is it reasonable? … Yes.”
Much more in the full article – recommended – here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Kristian” for the heads up.]
The attempt to trick me into an early exit from my 4 will not work with me. Neither will the next trick of bring on the 5 in a few months. Suckers galore out there but I’m not one of them. Okay… now, let’s hear how I’m a troll from all the sophomoric posters around here – I’m not a troll – just trying to help you grow up, get your priorities straight, and keep you from feeding the Apple marketing machine which will continue to get the best of you if you keep letting your urges overpower your native common sense.
There will not be a 5 til next Fall, summer at the earliest. If you think otherwise, you don’t know Apple.
There will not be a 5 at all. Apple wouldn’t name the sixth iPhone “iPhone 5”.
You’re a wiener. Apple is consistent. User experience rules. If it were to be called iPhone 6, buyers would ask, What happened to 5?
Yes, Apple is consistent which is why ther will not be an iPhone 5 when it’s the sixth iPhone that they release. The only reason that there were two iPhones with the number 3 in them was because the 3G was the second iPhone produced. This is really basic math here. They will most likely just start calling it “iPhone” at some point like with most other product lines.
Next iPhone will be the 4GS!
What happened to iPhone 2?
They called the second iPhone the iPhone 3G and the fifth the iPhone 4S. Why couldn’t they called the sixth iPhone the iPhone 5?
Can no one count!
iPhone (1)
iPhone 3G (2)
iPhone 3GS (3)
iPhone 4 (4)
iPhone 4S (5)
So what is the next iPhone called? iPhone 4G or iPhone 6
Maybe they’ll call it the 4GS ?
I don’t believe there will be the next iPhone model change until Spring 2013. I’ll welcome it if sooner, but I have my doubts because of how powerful the iPhone 4S is and because the 4G LTE build out is still in its infancy and won’t really be rolling ’til 2013.
Just because you are too cheap, poor, and/or stupid to get an iPhone 4S, it most certainly does not mean that the rest of us are being “tricked” or are “suckers.”
Millions of us want markedly better photo quality, faster processors, faster graphics, Siri, and some of us lead international lives which makes the world phone aspect of iPhone 4S very appealing.
We ordered our iPhone 4S units because we have the money, the brains and we want the best smartphone in the world. Some of us do not settle for second best.
Ditto. 64GB Black ATT iPhone 4S order confirmed awaiting shipping confirmation-tracking number. Plus I was able to talk AT&T service people into waiving my $250 early upgrade fee which their computer said I would have to pay until Christmas because I don’t believe in keeping previous models as soon as they are obsoleted by a new one because death is any day and I want to have fun ’til then. Plus they gave me free shipping too. 😉
In an earlier post, Dediu explained how the 4S is likely targeted at iPhone 3G and 3GS owners, whose contracts are expiring. Makes perfect sense. Direct your anger elsewhere, pal.
Sold my old iphone 4 on craigslist for $300, bought the new iphone 4s for $199.
Dam you Apple! You tricked me into making $101 bucks!
Ron I am not a sucker nor am I an idiot duped by Apple’s Marketing Machine. My priorities are simply different from yours, and I WANT SIRI!!!! I would preorder now if I could afford the 700-800$ upgrade cost. So as it is, I will definitely be in the 1st wave of upgraders when my contract expires next year. As long as Apple, or Nikon, or Sony or Benz continue to provide compelling reasons to upgrade, I’ll upgrade. When they cease, I’ll cease, in spite of whatever Ad campaign they float. My upgrades are based on my DESIRE for the features included.
The iPhone 4S is the first iPhone I can live with. I am abandoning my 6 plus year old Motorola Flip phone for an iPhone at last.
In Canada, the number 2 and 3 networks were same as Verizon. To get the iPhone they deployed a second network just like AT&T on the same towers. As a result, where the faster network has fewer towers, with the iPhone 4S, we can roam for free on the slower but stronger older CDMA network.
Having your cake and eating it too.
Ron Henderson. There are no tricks here. If someone feels that the upgrade is worthy of spending money they will do it. Siri alone is probably worth the upgrade. If you still have an older version then you still have a great phone. I am not going to upgrade at this moment. However you judge those who may have the extra disposable income to afford a luxury or those compelled to try something new, or even find that the features justify the upgrade. You are right you are not a troll. You are a douche.
No upgrade here until 4G LTE on the iPhone … lots of improvements in battery life still needed so keep working Apple
I will upgrade every time a new iPhone comes out.
Then my wife will get my old phone.
Then some other relative will get her old phone.
And some friend will get their old phone.
Yep!
I’m still getting the “your iphone software is up to date.”
How can you say some is poor cos they don’t intend on purchasing a product? Jog on pal, you are clearly one of the people that is wasting there money on every apple upgrade. Use your brain, your the same person who will upgrade to the 5 cos it has 10mp camera and A6 chip, even though you won’t need it as the 4s will be sufficient for you, grow up plz, cos someone is different and has sense does not make them poor
I find it funny that you tell people to use their brain and your post is rife with spelling errors.
“wasting there money”, you mean “their”
“your the same person”, “you’re” is the word you are looking for here.
The Dude abides.
Screen shot or it didn’t happen.
I am sticking to 3GS until a needed new feature arrives.
It hasn’t come yet.
It might turn out software wise. They will add features but then say the 3GS is too slow to handle it. I might be wrong because they are still
Selling the 3GS free with 2 year contract. who know?
Perfect example of how differently we each perceive Apple products. While BoC is happy with his 3GS, others among us see features in the 4S as essential to our lifestyle now. I know an iPhone 1 owner who is upgrading Friday. I also know a new iPhone 3GS owner who is delighted with her purchase. So feelings and perceptions are varied all over the globe as well as in the same places. My reasons for giving up my iPhone 4 is simply to have a new toy, use it to teach others how to use their iPhones (thanks to mirroring finally), to have the best camera possible and to have 64GB of storage space for the thousands of apps I own.
I’m unsure whether the 140million iPhone sales estimate for the upcoming 12 months refers to iPhone 4S sales alone — i.e., whether it includes previous generation phones (4 and 3GS).
In the most recent 12 months, iPhone sales have been about 80m units; so an increase to 140m as predicted in the article would constitute a 75% increase.
To estimate the impact on earnings, one would need to know the mix of iPhones sold (4S, 4, 3GS) and the profit margin of each. Thus, the analysis contained in the asymco article cited here can’t be used directly to estimate profits for Apple in upcoming quarters.