Forrester analyst: Amazon’s Android tablets will disrupt the tablet market, cause Apple to prepare for war

“This report has been in the works for months,” Sarah Rotman Epps writes for Forrester. “We held off publishing it last week out of respect for Steve Jobs, and we have great admiration for his inventions and influence on our culture.”

MacDailyNews Take: We’re sure Steve can handle whatever idiocy you have to dole out this month, Sarah.

“Amazon will disrupt the tablet market… If Amazon launches a tablet at a sub-$300 price point — assuming it has enough supply to meet demand — we see Amazon selling 3-5 million tablets in Q4 alone,” Epps writes. “Amazon will cause product strategists at Apple to prepare for war. Apple sells software and services, but the lion’s share of Apple’s revenue still comes from hardware, which makes it vulnerable to a company, such as Amazon, that isn’t seeking profit from hardware sales.”

“In a year from now, we could see a range of ‘Amazon tablets’ made by different hardware manufacturers,” Epps predicts. “A year from now, ‘Amazon’ will be synonymous with ‘Android’ on tablets, a strong second to Apple’s iPad.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: On June 17, 2010, Forrester’s genius prognosticator Sarah Rotman Epps estimated that U.S. sales for tablet computers from all manufacturers would total 3.5 million for all of 2010.

Meanwhile, back in reality, during the first quarter of availability alone (ended June 26, 2010) Apple sold every iPad they could make: 3.27 million units. Apple sold a total of 14.79 million iPads in 2010.

Bottom line: Take Sarah Rotman Epps’ predictions with a dump truck full of salt.

 

66 Comments

  1. Apple prepare for war? Kidding right?!

    Apple sent the crippling volleys that hit the other companies right in the powder kegs. I say the war is being declared by the shell shocked companies remaining.

    1. The “hilarious” thing about tall this is that Amazon ALREADY has a tablet for less than $300!

      That’s right– the Kindle is $114.

      Somehow it doesn’t seem to be eating Apple’s lunch.

      So, any claims that Amazon is going to produce a table that is competitive with the iPad at much lower prices requires showing how they are going to be able to do so. Apple uses software to produce a better experience at lower hardware cost (not requiring as much horsepower etc.) This is why current tablets can’t compete even at the same price.

      How is Amazon, which, lets face it, absolutely sucks at software (there are bugs on amazon.com that have been there for a decade) going to somehow magically make a tablet cheaper than apple yet deliver more or equal value?

  2. Amazon! the next anybody-but-Apple Great White Hope!

    and just how big is the market for 7″ tablets, really?

    but certainly Amazon may very well cannabalize the rest of the Android tablet competition for tablets of all sizes, if the product is (a) good, and (b) under $300/$400. it’s not Apple that should be worried, it’s Samsung, Asus, Acer, and of course Googorola.

    1. amazon will bust a nut in apple with their super cheap high end tablet device which will be subsidized fully and profited by amazon app store and amazon book sales

        1. You’ll never find out how many Kindles have ever been sold. That, my boy, is a company secret. Why analysts don’t need to know is beyond my understanding. Where’s that disclosure thing they’re always talking about. The Kindle being at the top of Amazon’s best seller list continually is a rather vague measurement.

      1. Two predators will not make a successful Android tablet. Both Amazon and Google are predators, like the dinosaurs. Google will not allow Amazon to eat its lunch by making tons of money out of its OS, which brings zero revenue to itself; neither will Amazon allow Google to dictate terms on what it can do. Remember, before Apple changed the revenue sharing formula, Amazon was gouging the authors of books by taking 70% of the revenue, and with this can afford to discount the price of books below cost. What would happen if Google were to replicate Amazon’s business model? Google has no hesitancy to throw billions to disrupt Amazon’s apple cart. Proof?: Look no further than Apple and Facebook.

  3. Having wiped my eyes after a fit of laughter, 😆

    Let’s get IRL about what Amazon wants to sell. They want to sell consumer stuff from their website. The zillions of other uses for an iPad rip-off are not of interest. Therefore, is their pad thingy going to be HIGH END and attract more than the family niche? NO FRACKING WAY.

    Therefore, I PREDICT a cohabitation in the market of low end pad thingies alongside the actual iPad. And of course there will be the now evident and growing worse Android Tax that will lower Amazon’s profits and customer interest.

    You might want to explore another field of interest Sarah.

    1. i think Apple should come out with a 5.5″ touch model. it would kill Sony and Nintendo in the PGP market. and it would cut the ground from under all the 7″ tablets whose only advantage is being smallish.

  4. What ever , if thay get it write I wll be surprised ,
    When it comes to Mac it just kicks ass so good luck.
    When it comes to steve jobs he goes where no man can and no man can..

  5. Amazon may make the most popular Android tablet, but it will still be the “iPad market.”

    The thing about Amazon’s services is that I can access them just fine from my Apple device. I use Kindle all the time, much more than iBooks. I buy MP3s from Amazon’s MP3 Store, if the price for something is better than at the iTunes Store. As the author says, Amazon is about profiting from services (and not selling the hardware); Amazon is not going to exclude iOS users, because most of their “mobile” customers use iOS devices. So anything that Amazon does to “disrupt” iPad will actually make iPad more useful and attractive versus the Android competition.

      1. Yes… When I said “Kindle,” I meant the the Kindle app and store (versus iBooks app and store), not the “peace of shit” hardware. 🙂

        Amazon has far more customers using the Kindle app on iOS devices versus Kindle hardware. I also use the Kindle app on my Mac to access the same content, which I cannot do if I used iBooks to purchase eBooks.

        So Amazon does good things. But they are not going to intentionally “neglect” iOS customers to push their own hardware, so whatever they do will help iOS become even stronger, not hurt it.

    1. From the context of the post, I think Ken means the iOS Kindle app, and not the device. What he’s saying is he accesses all of Amazon’s services from his iPad, iPhone or whatever, as do most of Amazon’s mobile customers, so it is unlikely that Amazon is looking to abandon/kill iOS.

  6. Where will you go for service on these wonderful Amazon tablets. I live in California and Amazon has made it clear it has no presence in our state, and several other states. So unless they are willing to start collecting sales tax here I do not expect to see and Amazon stores at the mall where Apple stores are. A super Kindle is not going to get it done.

  7. lol what next dont they get tired of trying so hard to beat apple why not just try to be different if apple didnt invent the ipad they may have still bin making mini’s and netbooks lol sad…..

  8. LOL!!

    What tablet market? iPad 1 and iPad 2?

    Save your money. As a consumer I don’t want a shitty plastic shell with the processing power if a watch! I want a smooth user interface, that never crashes, ultra simple to use (that excludes crummy android) and the ability to sync and backup my device.

    MY PREDICTION…
    “assuming we have enough supply to meet demand”

    Well I guess you could make about 35 units, that should meet demand for a POS DOA device.

  9. “We held off publishing it last week out of respect for Steve Jobs” Respect? More likely they wanted to wait until there was a slow news day so that people would read this steaming pile.

  10. Always the same, this pseudo experts forget about the world, all their numbers are just in US were Amazon is, I wonder how Amazon is going to give service in Mexico, just beside US, so never the less EU or China.

  11. While Apple tablets even the first iPad will continue to be used indefinitely, a new environmental concern will grow from all of the disposed of junk tablets entering the market.

    Entering a merket full of disposable tablets isn’t a concern for Apple. Ripping off their IP with junk tablets is clearly another issue. It is not only bad for the environment but bad for business.

    1. You see? Nothing screws up an electronics post faster than Wiccan tree religion.

      Screw your ‘environment’. Mother Nature is a heartless murderous bitch, its our duty (and key to our continued survival) to subdue and defeat her. You want a warm fuzzy fantasy about nature, go watch Bambi.

  12. “If Amazon launches a tablet at a sub-$300 price point”

    Yeh — cheapo Android imitation iPhones have been soooooo successful — taken huge amounts of profit away from Apple — yeh, right. So a cheapo inadequate imitation iPad will probably be about as important.

  13. No one knows how many Kindles have been sold. In January of 2010 Forrester claimed Amazon had only moved 2.5M units since 2007. Now they are saying they are going to move that plus another million in a quarter?????

    I call BS. I deal with these clowns all the time. The one thing all of them have in common is they don’t REALLY know anything and give it their best guess and somehow that becomes truth.

    1. No matter what the “real” number, Amazon has FAR more customers using the iOS Kindle App to buy Amazon’s content, versus the Kindle device. Therefore, it is NOT in Amazon’s best interest to even try to “disrupt” iPad’s success (if that’s actually possible). The more iPads there are out there, the more Kindle app users there are to buy e-content from Amazon.

      And… the iPad customers who paid $499 or more for an iPad are much more likely to buy a larger amount of e-content from Amazon, versus the cheapos who only wanted to spend under $300 (if that’s the price point). An iPad-using customer is actually MORE valuable to Amazon than a customer who buys a cheap Android tablet, even if that tablet has an Amazon logo.

    2. I have no idea how many kindles they have sold but it must be a few. I know at least 10 people with a kindle and only 2 with an ipad.

      Not that me or the people i know are an indication of anything in determining how many units of a product sold heh

  14. Archos sells cheap android tablets-they didn’t kill the iPad.
    There are a ton of cheap Chinese android tablets, they have not killed the iPad.
    Every 1st tier pc brand makes android tablets-they haven’t killed the iPad.

    Amazon may hurt the other android tablets, but I do not think it will affect iPad sales.

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