“I’m late with posting my estimates for Apple’s current (fourth fiscal) quarter. Normally I post my estimates a few days after the previous quarter’s earnings are announced. This quarter however there was a lot to think about,” Horace Dediu writes for asymco.
“As pointed out in my analysis of the previous quarter, the iPhone sold at a far faster rate than I thought,” Dediu writes. “I had expected it would be a ‘lame duck’ in the quarter but the expanding distribution allowed it to continue at a triple-digit growth rate (142% in fact, the highest quarterly growth rate since 2009).”
Dediu writes, “So the question for this quarter is, as always, what’s the iPhone growth?”
Dediu’s estimates for iPhones, Macs, iPads, and more in the full article here.
Not much rocket fuel left in the iPhone growth story unless Apple gets off its posterior and launches #5. Likely to see anemic iPhone sales figures this current quarter. It’ll probably take a slide down to half, about 10 million. That’s still quite a lot of suckers going for outdated tech.
Ha Ha! Good Troll.
You really and truly are a pathetic troll, BLN. If you’re so smart and prescient, how come you’re not rich? And if you are, why don’t you have one of your ignorant lackeys write these posts for you? Surely your right hand must have better (and more self-serving) things to do.
The iPhone 4 is still far and away better than any cheap Android hardware. BTW, didn’t you see that the #2 selling phone is the iPhone 3GS?
Yeah, Apple had better stop selling those real soon, too, right?
The article asked for a prognostication and I gave mine. Everyone and his dog knows that Apple will release the iPhone 5 in September or October. Why would I even consider jumping in and binding myself to a two year contract when I can wait a month and get the latest shiny thing that’ll likely cost exactly the same as what I paid for last year’s tech.
You live in the good ol’ USA – ” …everything we need we got it right here in the USA” (except for the soon to be eradicated tea party)
For the rest of the world, the wait is longer, it’s at least 6 more months away.
I have no problems with a view that contradicts mine and puts forth analysis stating why we hold different views. There is still growing demand in the rest of the world for iPhones but the article asked for an estimate of growth rates. The last I checked the U.S. accounted for 25% of total iPhone sales so any downtrend will impact overall growth negatively.
How many EOL predictions and declines in iPod’s growth rate have we heard predicted for so long?
Not everyone here in the USA is as tech informed or as ‘knowledgable’ as Balmer or his aching organ…
There’s still plenty of juice left in the restless American consumer – in every respect…
Ahhhhh! Now your monicker makes sense:breeze – as in windbag!
I just asked my dog and he didn’t know a damn thing about a new iPhone. He did, however, know all about a new iPawed due in time for Christmas. He can get things a little mixed up, though. When I was talking to a buddy the other day about his jailbroken iPhone, my dog thought I said “tailbroken” and started to whimper.
Actually, I don’t believe everyone and his dog know that Apple will release the iPhone 5 in September or October. I doubt that most consumers are like us, poring through every rumor and speculative article to get a leg up on the latest and greatest non-news. You’ve probably already read that the 3GS is one of the top-selling smartphones on Verizon. It’s old tech, but it’s still a step up from the dumbphones users had before and it’s relatively cheap.
So, no, YOU wouldn’t jump in on “old” tech for a two-year contract, but you probably don’t even like the idea of a two-year contract on an iPhone because you’ll feel trapped in a year when the iPhone 6 is offered.
The non-tech users I know don’t have clue about the iPhone 5 and they’re perfectly happy using their iPhone 4s because they’re used to them. As Apple enters new markets it will run into a lot of consumers that will be satisfied with older tech as long as the price is low enough and the device works well enough. If they need a phone today, they’re not going to wait a month or two. Apple will definitely have a good quarter with iPhone sales despite there being no iPhone 5.
I see your point, but I’m merely offering my $.02 to get in your face.
You’re not in my face at all. I welcome constructive comments such as yours giving a totally opposite view to what I think. And to be honest, you’ve half sold me on the idea that the majority of consumers do not pore over blog sites looking for the latest tech news. I talk to quite a few people in my day job, as part of making small talk, and they have no idea that Apple is bringing out a new iPhone in September. They’re quite happy with what they have, with the proviso that it should just work.
I’m just being a contrarian for the sake of it.
“I’m just being a contrarian for the sake of it.”
If contrarian is a synonym for asshole, we believe you 100%.
So hard to estimate … New contracts in China, new iOS and OS X, billion dollar server farm is on line and starting to establish why Apple built it, halos from other Apple products, HP and others getting out of the market, … This isn’t as hard as you think. Apple keeps telling you all, “We would have sold more if we could have made more.”
SO, HOW MANY CAN APPLE GET MADE? THAT IS HOW MANY APPLE WILL SELL.
I’m going to go with $9.71 EPS.
I like that number too ….. We have iPad and MacAir exploding and iPhone numbers should be good, as well, remember Apple opened new markets up in the quarter and impressive numbers still from the 3 GS …….
First quarter numbers should be super exciting and I see them well well over $10 ….. Would not be surprised to see them over $12 …..