“And we have a hat trick!” Mike Schuster reports for Minyanville. “After Dell’s global head of marketing Andy Lark used fuzzy math to say iPad will fail, after HP’s European head Eric Cador said the HP TouchPad will be “number one plus,” we have Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen saying the Apple iPad will eventually fall to Android in the near future.”
“Sitting down with tech curmudgeon Walt Mossberg at the All Things Digital D9 conference… things got a little heated when Mossberg addressed Cupertino’s refusal to run Adobe’s Flash platform on iOS devices,” Schuster reports. “Narayen responded: ‘There are a lot of misperceptions out there. When it first broke, people talked about the fact that they thought it was a technology issue, and I think it’s become fairly clear over the last year that it’s not about the technology: It’s about a business model issue. It’s about control of a platform. It’s the control of the app store that’s really at issue here. The value proposition Flash has is that we allow people to author programs once and get them to as many devices as possible. We’ve done that with Android. We will have 130 million phone devices that will have Flash on them by the end of the year.'”
Schuster reports, “Mossberg then took the wind out of the CEO’s sails by saying, ‘And I have yet to test a single one where Flash works really well. I’m sorry. They struggle on those Android devices.'”
MacDailyNews Take: Note to lesser tech CEOs: When being interviewed by Mossberg, wear a cup.
Schuster reports, “He sees the future of the iPad’s competitors to closely follow the trajectory of iPhone competitors. ‘What you saw with smartphones hitting an inflection point with Android, you’ll see it again with tablets,’ Narayen said.”
MacDailyNews Take: Disregarding major differences, such as requiring a carrier or not, is not conducive to making sound predictions, Flash-boy.
Schuster reports, “Looking at the numbers now, the iPad is so far in the lead. As of last month, Apple’s tablet had an 82% market share. Its closest competitor was the Samsung Galaxy Tab with 4%, followed by the Dell Streak at 3% and the Motorola Xoom at 2%. That’s a long way to the top. Even iPad’s competitors have cut back on production — building fewer tablets than originally planned — something which J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz called a ‘dose of reality.'”
“I’m not saying iPad won’t ever fall behind a glut of Android tablets, or even a single device,” Schuster writes. “But it’s difficult to envision a scenario when that’ll happen any time soon.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Disregarding major differences, such as requiring a carrier or not, is not conductive to making sound predictions, Flash-boy.</blockquote
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader "Fred Mertz" and “sleiii” for the heads up.]
Man, I remember a Macromedia rep way back in 1999 showing off Flash Player on a Palm V!! “Yeah the frame rate’s really bad, but it’ll get there…” Yah, sure.
Flash does not make android better than iPad. I would call it a negative not a positive as flash is still a memory and power hog and still does not work well on portable devices of ANY KIND!
“God is dead.” -Nietzsche
“Nietzsche is dead.” -God
“… wear a cup…”
Good one MDN. Made me laugh out loud here.
And the story below reads JPMorgan Chase iPad knockoffs fail to gain traction. Adobe is delusional!
They can’t come close to iPad 1, let alone the 2, then 3, etc. They should notice in the iPad it says “we’re just getting started.”
Adobe’s days are numbered, says some guy who owns an iPad.
Without doubt.
All His Steveness said was that.
Adobe Flash sucked on the iOS and if Adobe could get it fixed- fine.
They have had a very long time with both the Mac OS and the iOS and Flash sucks on both.
Comparing iPad to iPhone is moronic. Apple tried a different compensation model with the iPhone tied exclusively to AT&T, and it left the door open to Android on Verizon because Verizon had so many customers. Also, I don’t think Apple thought anyone, let alone Google, would be able to create an OS close to iOS in such a short time.
iPad is totally different. It’s not tied to a carrier; no long-term contracts; and the App Store already exists whereas it had to be created for the iPhone. Plus, iPad had no competition at all – no Blackberries, Treos, etc. that people were at least familiar with the smartphone concept.
People have been wanting something like an iPad for years, but nothing from MS even came close. Laptops were better than Windows tablets (even Windows laptops). So all Apple had to do is release the right product and Boom! the market was theirs.
NO!… it’s definitely a technology issue as Flash is SLOW & BLOATED and a CPU killer!
Schuster reports, “Looking at the numbers now, the iPad is so far in the lead. As of last month, Apple’s tablet had an 82% market share. Its closest competitor was the Samsung Galaxy Tab with 4%, followed by the Dell Streak at 3% and the Motorola Xoom at 2%. That’s a long way to the top. Even iPad’s competitors have cut back on production — building fewer tablets than originally planned — something which J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz called a ‘dose of reality.’”
The competitors add up to a total of 9% market share. I can already see the blaring headlines some time in the distant future:
“iPAD FINALLY KILLED! COMPETITORS COMBINE TO REACH DOUBLE-DIGIT MARKET SHARE OF 10% !”
The light on my iPhone camera drains the battery. It should be banned by Apple.
It’s my f-ing battery Apple !!! Let Adobe release it on iOS and let it fail. What’s the matter, afraid it won’t ?
The anti-flash stance is all about politics and Apple’s profits and nothing to with the BS SJ feeds you all. If you think SJ really cares about your batteries you’re deluded.
Battery longevity is a very important metric. Who would want a rival company screwing with that metric?
As for Flash, it hasn’t worked properly on Apple products for the last 10 years. When Mac users complained about Adobe products not working well on Macs while working quite well on Windows devices, we were told to switch to Windows.
If you think Adobe really cares about Apple products, you’re deluded, to go along with being completely uninformed.
You want Apple to let Adobe release Flash on iOS, despite the fact that Adobe just can’t manage to make Flash WORK on mobile devices?
I believe it’s against Apple’s App Store TOS to release an app that doesn’t function, so that right there leaves Flash out in the cold.
You’re right, though, somebody is trying to feed us bullshit alright. But that somebody is you.
Too bad MDN couldn’t have iCal’d the story where Horse and Buggy salesmen shouted that the automobile’s days were numbered.
What happened to the iPhone is it has and continues to have the dominant market share for any hardware/software platform cell phone. It has sunk RIM, Nokia and Microsoft. It makes almost all of the profit in the smartphone business and it is the pre-eminent design force behind all the cheap, giveaway and hacked up, incompatible OS built on a shell. Android makes nothing. There is no android phone. This isn’t even like Windoze. There is no consistency between phones. The total number of devices is meaningless because it is based upon companies making their profit on hardware variants of a basic system that is not compatible from one platform to another. Every Dell PC is compatible with every HP PC. That was Windoze “advantage.” (lot of good it’s doing them now with iPad delivering the coup de gras). The issue isn’t whether they can run flash. The issue is that they have no ecosystems or the ones they have are pathetic. Apple’s disadvantage with MFT was that it was a hardware and software company. Since the iPad that has become Apple’s real advantage over every other PC maker, music player maker, software platform, smartphone maker and tablet maker. They make the software and hardware so that they can completely design and control (not a bad word to those who are toilet trained) the Ecosystem. It’s the Ecosystem, stupid. When a market matures and goes into the dumps, they just morph the big think into something else and build another layer into the ecosystem. (iPhone then iPad, soon iCloud). What is important about iCloud is not what will wow them on Day 1, it is what it will become after year 1 and 2 and 10 and 50.
“Narayen – “(T)he Apple iPad will eventually fall to Android in the near future.”
I’m not making this up;
On the radio today, I heard an ad for Samsung’s Galaxy Tab, on sale for $49.99.
In a month, expect to see the Galaxy Tab piled in bins, at $29.99.
Not long after that, when buying a minimum of $40 in school supplies at Staples, don’t be surprised when you are handed a free Galaxy Tab with your purchase. Also, don’t be surprised to see other customers refusing the free Galaxy Tab.
“Ah, no thanks. I’m good. You keep it. Maybe someone else can use it, but I don’t need it. Thanks anyway.”
*Hurrying out the door, with their new printer cartridges and ear buds*
In Singapore on holidays. They’re giving away Galaxy Tabs with selected Samsung TVs. The desperation has set in
I just saw this guy’s photo elsewhere. What’s with all the black make-up around his eyes? He makes KISS’ Gene Simmons look bad. Creepy.
iPad loosing it’s throne to a competitor? I will say that’s possible, but not to android. Doesnt look like it at least.
Maybe if they add some sort of new unexpected feature like apple did with iOS 4, add more variety to the android market, have a more user friendly interface, fix all these bugy stuff all my fridnds are tking about, and have a smaller selection of hardware because I find it hard to catch up with all these new tablets coming out. I mean, when you finally bought a android tablet, a few months later maybe a better one comes out and you end up regretting that you wasted your money on the older one.
I’m not buying it no matter what flashy stuff you put on it.
Look at apple:
1) user friendly interface
2) > 65,000 apps to chhose from
3) no bugs
4) just one device- not hard to choose what you want (white or black, your choice :))
Let’s just say apple is a bit more organized.
Come on Microsoft, I’ve been a windows fan for a decade now, your loosing me(a customer) to apple. What are you doing?
Actually Mr Narayen, you’ve got it backwards … Adobe’s days are numbered … they’re now at HTML5 and counting down. Anyone who hasn’t started converting their sites from Flash to HTML5 with will soon be SOL. I’m predicting that iPad3 will be yet another tablet game changer that will further hobble the competition. Sorry Shantanu, flash is not shinola …
I saw this guy’s photo on another site and am wondering: What’s with all the black makeup around his eye? Makes KISS’ Gene Simmons look like a piker.
I think you mean iPad 2’s days are numbered. When you guys finally release a tablet superior to iPad 2 and out sell it, iPad 3 will out sell you.
Make room for Shantanu Narayen! The list of ‘Worst CEOs In Bizzniz’ is growing. This oblivious dickhead can’t STFU even in the face of Flash’s failure and imminent demise.
Can he beat Steve Balmer? Inquiring minds couldn’t care less. The race to the bottom is deadly dull.
I work at the highest volume Office Depot in our region and we have sold 6 (count em! 6!) Blackberry Playbooks!!! The freakin’ Viewsonic Android tablet outsells the d@mn thing and it’s a POS it’s self!!!
I did find out that we are getting all new Laptops and more tablets at the end of this month. I’m praying we get the iPad since we already carry the iPods.