“And we have a hat trick!” Mike Schuster reports for Minyanville. “After Dell’s global head of marketing Andy Lark used fuzzy math to say iPad will fail, after HP’s European head Eric Cador said the HP TouchPad will be “number one plus,” we have Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen saying the Apple iPad will eventually fall to Android in the near future.”
“Sitting down with tech curmudgeon Walt Mossberg at the All Things Digital D9 conference… things got a little heated when Mossberg addressed Cupertino’s refusal to run Adobe’s Flash platform on iOS devices,” Schuster reports. “Narayen responded: ‘There are a lot of misperceptions out there. When it first broke, people talked about the fact that they thought it was a technology issue, and I think it’s become fairly clear over the last year that it’s not about the technology: It’s about a business model issue. It’s about control of a platform. It’s the control of the app store that’s really at issue here. The value proposition Flash has is that we allow people to author programs once and get them to as many devices as possible. We’ve done that with Android. We will have 130 million phone devices that will have Flash on them by the end of the year.'”
Schuster reports, “Mossberg then took the wind out of the CEO’s sails by saying, ‘And I have yet to test a single one where Flash works really well. I’m sorry. They struggle on those Android devices.'”
MacDailyNews Take: Note to lesser tech CEOs: When being interviewed by Mossberg, wear a cup.
Schuster reports, “He sees the future of the iPad’s competitors to closely follow the trajectory of iPhone competitors. ‘What you saw with smartphones hitting an inflection point with Android, you’ll see it again with tablets,’ Narayen said.”
MacDailyNews Take: Disregarding major differences, such as requiring a carrier or not, is not conducive to making sound predictions, Flash-boy.
Schuster reports, “Looking at the numbers now, the iPad is so far in the lead. As of last month, Apple’s tablet had an 82% market share. Its closest competitor was the Samsung Galaxy Tab with 4%, followed by the Dell Streak at 3% and the Motorola Xoom at 2%. That’s a long way to the top. Even iPad’s competitors have cut back on production — building fewer tablets than originally planned — something which J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz called a ‘dose of reality.'”
“I’m not saying iPad won’t ever fall behind a glut of Android tablets, or even a single device,” Schuster writes. “But it’s difficult to envision a scenario when that’ll happen any time soon.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Disregarding major differences, such as requiring a carrier or not, is not conductive to making sound predictions, Flash-boy.</blockquote
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader "Fred Mertz" and “sleiii” for the heads up.]
I feel sorry for adobes shareholders with an idiot like this at the helm.
As the Randoph and Mortimer Duke said in ” Trading Places” Sell, Sell, Sell!
Does that make ballmer the guy in the monkey suit?
Ballmer and this guy are Best Buds!
I think the RIMM co-CEOs are Franken and Davis!
I thought they´re called Beavis and Butthead
They are like Boehner and Bachmann!
Lol.
Days are numbered.. I think he meant to say everyone else’s tablet’s days are numbered.
Side note… The mdn notification… Is it just me or is that sound annoying? Needs to be standard sound. (need to check if it can be changed on my end I guess)
82% market share for the iPad seems far too low.
I thought the same thing. I think it’s likely that they are just regurgitating that —android tablets shipped (and sitting in warehouses & stockrooms collecting dust) Vs iPads (actually) sold— figure that was conjured up a couple months ago.
If you look at tablets in use (via various methods) the iPad usually come out above 90% of the market (above 95% in some metrics)
It is too low, those stats are for shipments, not sales. Most of the other device makers were launching, meaning they have to fill the channel for the first time. That’s an artificial bump to their numbers. The true sales shares would have the iPad higher.
Of course they are numbered… iPad 1, iPad 2, iPad 3, etc.
+1.
Yes, I was thinking similar lines. iPad’s days are numbered ever since the introduction of the iPad killer: iPad 2. 🙂
iPad’s days are numbered!!!!! It’s call a calendar!! June 3, June 4, June 5, etc etc… There will be many days (and numbers) in iPad’s future….
iPad’s days are numbered all right … in the MILLIONS!
Nothing to worry about, just a bunch of indians. Gen George Armstrong Custer.
By “misperceptions”, this dude means What Steve Jobs explicitly said in an open letter.
iPad may very well lose the lead in overall tablet marketshare one day. However, as with iPhone, Apple does not have to have >50% share to be a powerful force in that market nor to profit from it. They need enough share and advantages, eg large customer base, to keep developers interested.
Good one Walt! These guys just loooove talkin’ smack against Apple. Yeah, the iPad will be knocked off it’s throne, and day now, just like the iPod was..
“I’ll bite your kneecaps!”
I can’t figure out if these CEO guys are just sticking their chests out or they just so out of touch that they’re delusional. Don’t any of these CEO’s have a straight shooting advisor that can give them a dose of reality? Even William Wallace had his Irish buddy with him in battle. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwx2ce_AyOE
I think that these CEOs train their RDFs on themselves, while SJ trains it on his customers. Then again, his stuff works theirs doesn’t. IMHO for most companies being sociopathic and delusional are requirements for the CEO position.
Any Android tablet with Honeycomb 3.1, Tegra 3 running Flash 10.3 for $300. End to iPad dominance in 3 months. Apple shares are down today as investors dump stock before WWDC anticipating disastrous iCloud announcement in 3 days.
Does your venting make you a little bit happier? If so, you may continue on.
Andy Droyid is a Mac fan just pretending to be a nutcase for fun. Right? Right? Please tell me I’m right. Nobody is that delusional are they? (Well, Ballmer, Narayen, the RIM twins…)
yup…I’m that delusional…….you guys are idots. The facts are simple – buy an ipad – see nothing – its that simple.
Why? because Steve is a greedy fuck AND because he’s an asshole. HE doesn’t like it – so that’s it.
Apple is ALWAYS doing things like they’re the freekin CIA – I wonder why? Could it have anything to do with the fact that most ppl. would likely react to what they’re doing in the same way they’d react to finding out what the CIA is up to? Just sayin…..
Nope…I used to LOVEEEEEE my mac…& then the shine wore off, but I kept loyal, again and again and again.
No more….Mac =’s Window experience at Lexus prices.
Nah, I think HP and Android can’t POSSIBLY be worse than this crap – and for a HELL OF A LOT LESS too.
Yup, just waiting till I can justify the expence & I’m am never going near a mac component again unless its with a bat in my hand.
mac user come to his senses
Thanks for this comment. It’s the joke of the weekend.
The event on Monday will even make it more laughable.
17lb battery to run flash and have comparable life of the iPad.
Cheap resistive screen.
Yeah that $300 android tablet sounds good to me.
Steve, did u run out of chairs today?
I’m afraid the only use you’ll get out of that $300 Android tablet will be to stuff it up your ass while it’s running pornographic Flash movies in the background and pretend you’re having sex Droidboy.
Ballmer’s Left Nut – Thanks for the coffee out the nose! Awesome, just awesome.
I`ve heard all the “just you wait” noise all before, still waiting, no scratch that, gave up waiting a loong time ago. Show me what you got NOW, as the old saying goes, “shit or get off the pot”
Don`t you guys ever get tired of being consistently wrong?
Not that I mind the laugh, thanks!
Yeah, because the race to the bottom has been so good to PC assemblers. Your argument is that it will work with tablets is wrong. The problem no one is mentioning is that with the saturation of iPad (growing everyday) most people do or soon will know someone with an ipad, and you can bet they are going to play with it, be amazed and then when they touch an android hot mess they will see it for what it is CHEAP CRAP. Yeah you will always have penny pinchers buying commodity garbage, but the don’t bring developers, or keep the companies alive. They get the privilege of showing other what they don’t want.
Andy’s just like Zune Tang™, minus the humor.
I normally try not to be offensive.
But this guy is such a fscking know-nothing bozo that he really should keep his fscking mouth shut.
My suggestion is that he focus on his own job and his own products: 6.375% sales growth per year since he took the helm, near-flat income and 8% decline in market cap.
Does he get that it’s not just the iPad itself that’s the problem. Doesn’t he understand that people are making long term commitments when they buy into the platform. People are buying music, movies and oh yeah APPS, that they’ll want around for a long while.
Does he think the people buy iPads now are going to magically switch to android?
This is a great observation. The first mover advantage that Apple gained will not easily be lost because people will be accustomed to and anchored to the platform. As MDN has always said, the iPad is like the iPod. Use that as your model to see how this will play out.
Yes, now add in the screen time they had with ipad, now stick an android tablet in their hands, watch em wince, squirm, and curse. I’ve seen it first hand, it is real, most people do not want Android, they want cheaper. Once they experience the IOS eco-system, they want more. True users of IOS will be disappointed by Android 9 out of ten times. Unless you are an Apple-hater, or a propeller-head linux person you will not find a value proposition beyond the initial outlay with Android.
Even worse/better;
Apple does NOT have the “first mover advantage”.
Microsoft has been squirting out commercially available tablet computers for years.
YEARS.
Almost a decade after the first tablets were brought to market, Apple came out with a different, better design, and showed everyone else the right way to do “tablet”.
“Apple came out with a different, better design,”
Wow, did I just type the understatement of the decade?
No carrier involved! So the total of Android tablets will be lower than iPad sales.
This will look a lot more like what happened with the iPod than with the iPhone.
Is theta a “Steve Ballmer” virus Out there? Because it looks like adobe’s CEO jus got it.
Adobe was complaining about no Flash on the iPhone and yet it was not even ready for deployment and still isn’t quite ready. What did Adobe want Apple to do…………….just wait?
mossberg has his nose stuck up steve jobs ass. The guy sucks big time
Thanks Ed, we needed an ass expert on this thread.
+1 (is that “one up the ass”?)
Thanks for the laugh:-)
So pointing out that Flash still stinks to high heaven on mobile devices isn’t allowed then? Are we supposed to join Adobe’s CEO in denying the plain reality that everyone can see?
Flash on mobile is *still* a buggy battery drain and resource hog, four years after the iPhone made it clear how much work Adobe had to do. What have they been doing all this time? Seems like they’ve mostly been just puffing their chests out and continuing to peddle vaporware (“It’ll work just fine real soon! Just wait for the next release!”) while making claims their products can’t back up.
To be fair, Adobe didn’t have to just fix Flash. They also had to confront and help retrain the idiots that use Flash to build websites and code games.
I hear they’ve got Flash in fairly good shape.
The coders of Flash websites and games, not-so-much.
This guy is delusional.
Like Premiere. Flash’s days are the ones numbered.
We will have 130 million phone devices that will have Flash on them by the end of the year.
Which year? Adobe has been promising this for several years now. (OK, maybe not the number, but that Flash will be working on mobile devices.)
LOL.. then why does Adobe keep coming out with apps for the iPad?
‘And I have yet to test a single one where Flash works really well. I’m sorry. They struggle on those Android devices.’”
Hahaha.. FAIL you idiot CEO! haha
And how long has Adobe been working on mobile Flash that still doesn’t work well?
Mayhaps a name change from “Ado-be” to “Ado-was” is in order…
WHERE IS ZUNE TANG????
Maybe he got hit with one if Ballmer’s flying chairs. Poor thing. I miss him dearly
Gosh I’m so upset. I meant of.
He’s got special Ferengy sources tell him that.
He should be tread lightly, the FCA may liquidate him soon..
http://memory-alpha.org/wiki/Ferengi_Commerce_Authority
Adobe, thy name is Mud.
Man, I remember a Macromedia rep way back in 1999 showing off Flash Player on a Palm V!! “Yeah the frame rate’s really bad, but it’ll get there…” Yah, sure.
Flash does not make android better than iPad. I would call it a negative not a positive as flash is still a memory and power hog and still does not work well on portable devices of ANY KIND!
“God is dead.” -Nietzsche
“Nietzsche is dead.” -God
“… wear a cup…”
Good one MDN. Made me laugh out loud here.
And the story below reads JPMorgan Chase iPad knockoffs fail to gain traction. Adobe is delusional!
They can’t come close to iPad 1, let alone the 2, then 3, etc. They should notice in the iPad it says “we’re just getting started.”
Adobe’s days are numbered, says some guy who owns an iPad.
Without doubt.
All His Steveness said was that.
Adobe Flash sucked on the iOS and if Adobe could get it fixed- fine.
They have had a very long time with both the Mac OS and the iOS and Flash sucks on both.
Comparing iPad to iPhone is moronic. Apple tried a different compensation model with the iPhone tied exclusively to AT&T, and it left the door open to Android on Verizon because Verizon had so many customers. Also, I don’t think Apple thought anyone, let alone Google, would be able to create an OS close to iOS in such a short time.
iPad is totally different. It’s not tied to a carrier; no long-term contracts; and the App Store already exists whereas it had to be created for the iPhone. Plus, iPad had no competition at all – no Blackberries, Treos, etc. that people were at least familiar with the smartphone concept.
People have been wanting something like an iPad for years, but nothing from MS even came close. Laptops were better than Windows tablets (even Windows laptops). So all Apple had to do is release the right product and Boom! the market was theirs.
NO!… it’s definitely a technology issue as Flash is SLOW & BLOATED and a CPU killer!
Schuster reports, “Looking at the numbers now, the iPad is so far in the lead. As of last month, Apple’s tablet had an 82% market share. Its closest competitor was the Samsung Galaxy Tab with 4%, followed by the Dell Streak at 3% and the Motorola Xoom at 2%. That’s a long way to the top. Even iPad’s competitors have cut back on production — building fewer tablets than originally planned — something which J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz called a ‘dose of reality.’”
The competitors add up to a total of 9% market share. I can already see the blaring headlines some time in the distant future:
“iPAD FINALLY KILLED! COMPETITORS COMBINE TO REACH DOUBLE-DIGIT MARKET SHARE OF 10% !”
The light on my iPhone camera drains the battery. It should be banned by Apple.
It’s my f-ing battery Apple !!! Let Adobe release it on iOS and let it fail. What’s the matter, afraid it won’t ?
The anti-flash stance is all about politics and Apple’s profits and nothing to with the BS SJ feeds you all. If you think SJ really cares about your batteries you’re deluded.
Battery longevity is a very important metric. Who would want a rival company screwing with that metric?
As for Flash, it hasn’t worked properly on Apple products for the last 10 years. When Mac users complained about Adobe products not working well on Macs while working quite well on Windows devices, we were told to switch to Windows.
If you think Adobe really cares about Apple products, you’re deluded, to go along with being completely uninformed.
You want Apple to let Adobe release Flash on iOS, despite the fact that Adobe just can’t manage to make Flash WORK on mobile devices?
I believe it’s against Apple’s App Store TOS to release an app that doesn’t function, so that right there leaves Flash out in the cold.
You’re right, though, somebody is trying to feed us bullshit alright. But that somebody is you.
Too bad MDN couldn’t have iCal’d the story where Horse and Buggy salesmen shouted that the automobile’s days were numbered.
What happened to the iPhone is it has and continues to have the dominant market share for any hardware/software platform cell phone. It has sunk RIM, Nokia and Microsoft. It makes almost all of the profit in the smartphone business and it is the pre-eminent design force behind all the cheap, giveaway and hacked up, incompatible OS built on a shell. Android makes nothing. There is no android phone. This isn’t even like Windoze. There is no consistency between phones. The total number of devices is meaningless because it is based upon companies making their profit on hardware variants of a basic system that is not compatible from one platform to another. Every Dell PC is compatible with every HP PC. That was Windoze “advantage.” (lot of good it’s doing them now with iPad delivering the coup de gras). The issue isn’t whether they can run flash. The issue is that they have no ecosystems or the ones they have are pathetic. Apple’s disadvantage with MFT was that it was a hardware and software company. Since the iPad that has become Apple’s real advantage over every other PC maker, music player maker, software platform, smartphone maker and tablet maker. They make the software and hardware so that they can completely design and control (not a bad word to those who are toilet trained) the Ecosystem. It’s the Ecosystem, stupid. When a market matures and goes into the dumps, they just morph the big think into something else and build another layer into the ecosystem. (iPhone then iPad, soon iCloud). What is important about iCloud is not what will wow them on Day 1, it is what it will become after year 1 and 2 and 10 and 50.
“Narayen – “(T)he Apple iPad will eventually fall to Android in the near future.”
I’m not making this up;
On the radio today, I heard an ad for Samsung’s Galaxy Tab, on sale for $49.99.
In a month, expect to see the Galaxy Tab piled in bins, at $29.99.
Not long after that, when buying a minimum of $40 in school supplies at Staples, don’t be surprised when you are handed a free Galaxy Tab with your purchase. Also, don’t be surprised to see other customers refusing the free Galaxy Tab.
“Ah, no thanks. I’m good. You keep it. Maybe someone else can use it, but I don’t need it. Thanks anyway.”
*Hurrying out the door, with their new printer cartridges and ear buds*
In Singapore on holidays. They’re giving away Galaxy Tabs with selected Samsung TVs. The desperation has set in
I just saw this guy’s photo elsewhere. What’s with all the black make-up around his eyes? He makes KISS’ Gene Simmons look bad. Creepy.
iPad loosing it’s throne to a competitor? I will say that’s possible, but not to android. Doesnt look like it at least.
Maybe if they add some sort of new unexpected feature like apple did with iOS 4, add more variety to the android market, have a more user friendly interface, fix all these bugy stuff all my fridnds are tking about, and have a smaller selection of hardware because I find it hard to catch up with all these new tablets coming out. I mean, when you finally bought a android tablet, a few months later maybe a better one comes out and you end up regretting that you wasted your money on the older one.
I’m not buying it no matter what flashy stuff you put on it.
Look at apple:
1) user friendly interface
2) > 65,000 apps to chhose from
3) no bugs
4) just one device- not hard to choose what you want (white or black, your choice :))
Let’s just say apple is a bit more organized.
Come on Microsoft, I’ve been a windows fan for a decade now, your loosing me(a customer) to apple. What are you doing?
Actually Mr Narayen, you’ve got it backwards … Adobe’s days are numbered … they’re now at HTML5 and counting down. Anyone who hasn’t started converting their sites from Flash to HTML5 with will soon be SOL. I’m predicting that iPad3 will be yet another tablet game changer that will further hobble the competition. Sorry Shantanu, flash is not shinola …
I saw this guy’s photo on another site and am wondering: What’s with all the black makeup around his eye? Makes KISS’ Gene Simmons look like a piker.
I think you mean iPad 2’s days are numbered. When you guys finally release a tablet superior to iPad 2 and out sell it, iPad 3 will out sell you.
Make room for Shantanu Narayen! The list of ‘Worst CEOs In Bizzniz’ is growing. This oblivious dickhead can’t STFU even in the face of Flash’s failure and imminent demise.
Can he beat Steve Balmer? Inquiring minds couldn’t care less. The race to the bottom is deadly dull.
I work at the highest volume Office Depot in our region and we have sold 6 (count em! 6!) Blackberry Playbooks!!! The freakin’ Viewsonic Android tablet outsells the d@mn thing and it’s a POS it’s self!!!
I did find out that we are getting all new Laptops and more tablets at the end of this month. I’m praying we get the iPad since we already carry the iPods.