Cody Willard: Apple to sell one billion iPads

“I read a lot of analyst notes every morning as I prepare for my day, and I have been for years, and every once in a while, you really makes you think,” Cody Willard blogs for MarketWatch. “Such was the case last night as I sat down and read Bernstein’s most recent note on Apple, in which the analysts raise their forward earnings estimates by a buck to over $30 a share because: ‘Despite the fact that iOS’s ecosystem lead may diminish over time, we believe that iPad’s market evolution and competitive positioning is more likely to resemble the iPod than the iPhone, and we have increased conviction that iPad will have sustained dominant market share (50%+) going forward.'”

“3 out of every four MP3 players were iPods at one point. If (and yes, it’s an ‘if,’ unless you’re a permabear or luddite, it’s not a ‘BIG if,’ but just an ‘if’) tablet sales go from 20 million in 2010 to 100 million 2012 to 250 million in 2015, we’re talking about Apple selling more than 200 million tablets in five years from this year,” Willard writes. “And we’re talking about a business line that will see gross margins expand as volumes and expertise grow. And more importantly we’re talking about a total of a billion iPads being in circulation, using the iOS ecosystem with all its huge margin revenue generators like apps, subscriptions, music, video, and so on…think about trying to model what Apple’s earnings will be in 2015 with that kind of bottom line leverage in the pike.”

Read more in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]

14 Comments

  1. If the upcoming announcement offers iPad and iPhone users the opportunity to use iCloud to manage their devices in lieu of tethering to a computer, Willard’s numbers are too low.

  2. If only the value of Apple’s stock truly mirrored Apple market share and real future value. Consider that when Apple Macs become 1/3 or 1/2 of the world wide PC market, Apple will have about 90% of the markets real profits. You already see this in the smart phone market.

    1. Now alos consider that in the smart phone market, Apple does have competition. Albeit from a fragmented, bug ridden insecure copy cat platform. But still, they don’t own that market, and just look how good Apple is still doing within it.

    2. I dont think Apple will ever have that much of the PC market. Maybe if you include tablets in that, then yeah. But as far as the desktop/laptop paradigm goes, I think Apple peaks at somewhere between 20-25%. That still leaves room for a LOT of growth considering the worldwide share is far less than the US share.

  3. One billion iPads. I guess we’re almost past the “Legion of Apple Fanbois”, “Mindless Lemmings”, “Reality Distortion Field”, not to mention “iPad is a Fad” memes.

    Going to be dull around here, if that happens

  4. I know. I’m whitish… plenty of analysts are brown and yellow… Apple will retain more of the tablet market in 2011 than the iPod at its height. Any mp3 could play on any mp3 player. Any app cannot “play” on any tablet, therefore there is no equivalent experience on competing tablets. Google is going to have to pay developers to create apps.

  5. If Apple’s Mac/iPad is the dominant platform in 5 years I’m getting a big ugly Linux Boxen.

    I just can’t handle not being part of a down trodden minority.

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