“IDC caused some chuckles to break out across the tech world when they predicted that Microsoft’s Windows phones will beat the iPhone in market share by 2015. Impossible! Absurd! seemed to be the default responses,” Jon Brodkin reports for Network World. “But is it really so far-fetched? Gartner, the other giant tech analyst firm, now agrees with IDC in a new report that says Windows phones will take 19.5% market share by 2015, compared to 17.2% for Apple’s iOS.”
“While it’s tough to predict outcomes in such a volatile market four years in advance, there are plausible scenarios under which Microsoft can topple Apple in market share,” Brodkin reports. “To do so, Microsoft must position Windows Phone 7 as a low-end smartphone, almost like a high-end ‘dumb’ phone, while Apple continues going after the highest, most expensive end of the mobile market. If your phone can check email, surf the Web, and play music and videos it already does most of what a typical iPhone owner uses the device for. And if it’s free, rather than $200 to $300, many people will take it.”
“The other factor working in Microsoft’s favor, of course, is the Nokia deal. Because of its dominant position outside the United States, Nokia still sells more smartphones than Apple,” Brodkin reports. “Today, those phones are Symbian-based, but they will be transitioned to Windows Phone 7 as fast as Microsoft and Nokia can make it happen.”
Brodkin reports, “There have been some reports that Apple will develop a cheaper, smaller version of the iPhone to go after the low end of the market, but that still remains to be seen. 2015 is a long way away in the mobile market, but the combination of Nokia’s existing market share and a Microsoft strategy to target the low end of the smartphone market could well be enough to drive Microsoft sales ahead of the iPhone.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Yippie. Did IDC and/or Gartner predict the state of the 2010 smartphone market back in 2006? Even though we’d love to see those, we can’t find 2006 predictions from either company, so maybe they were much, much smarter back then.
If (big if) this happens, do we also get several years of idiotic articles exhorting Apple to make cheap phones, just like we had, and still have, to endure from the “cheap Mac” brigade? Revenue share is what matters most, not market share.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]
Related articles:
IDC: By 2015, both Android and Windows Phone will beat Apple’s iOS in smartphone market share – March 29, 2011
Strategy Analytics: Apple took lion’s share of smartphone revenue in 2010 – March 16, 2011
Surging iPad shipments propel Apple to #1 in worldwide mobile computer market share – February 16, 2011
Apple’s 4.2% mobile phone market share accounts for 51% of industry’s total profit – January 31, 2011
DisplaySearch not afraid to count iPad: Apple #1 mobile PC maker in North America, #3 in world – December 7, 2010
To understand market share vs. profits, look no further than Nokia vs. Apple – November 11, 2009
How Apple passed Nokia to become the world’s most profitable handset vendor – November 11, 2009
Strategy Analytics: Apple passes Nokia to become world’s most profitable handset vendor – November 10, 2009
NPD: Apple grabbed 91% share of premium computer market in June – July 23, 2009
So the people that never saw the Apple juggernaut coming, the desireability of the iPhone, the dominance of the iPad, the growth of the Mac market and the deepest pockets in the tech sector are suddenly Nostradamus?
And how is the Windows phone gonna win? “If it’s free, rather than $200 or $300, many people will take it.”
If price was the dominant factor, then Mac growth would not be outpacing the east I’d the market.
I, and my circle, always shopped price. We would never buy Macs. Too expensive. But all it took was one of us to get an iPhone. Withe the halo effect full on, within 1.5 years we’re all Mac guys now. The ease of use and the reliability is well worth paying the extra money. Add to that the service you get at the Apple stores, and Macs become a bargain.
And with game changers in 2007 (iPhone) and 2010 (iPad), let windows chase the smartphone market. With another transformative product from Apple in 2013 (3 yr intervals), by 2015 people will be saying, “Smartphone?!? Only elderly people an IT guys still use those.”
All Apple needs to do is add phone to all low end iPods, and maybe iPad.
The cost of the phone is a relatively modest portion of the total cost of ownership of a smartphone over a two year contract. The bulk of the cost ($1500-$2000) over the two-year contract is associated with the monthly fees. And you can already get an iPhone 3GS for $49 to “…check email, surf the Web, and play music and videos.” When the iPhone 5 is released, the iPhone 4 will probably take over that low-cost slot in the Apple lineup. So where are the savings from a low-end, smart/dumb Windows 7 phone when the iPhone 3GS (and soon iPhone 4) will offer so much more for virtually the same price?
If Microsoft beats the iPhone in market share within four year, then only because Apple has moved on to the next big thing.
Maybe Apple can help poor old WP7… Can you say, “Bootcamp for iOS?”
W7phone = low end dumb phone. That’s about right.
Really it comes down to: Will Nokia sell more phones than Apple. Because by then all phones will be “smart” phones. And it’s plausible… with Windows Phone just coming along for the ride.
And it doesn’t matter. Apple needs to lead in phones sold to users with a budget for apps… then Apple continues to ride iOS as the premier mobile OS ecosystem and it and its developers get rich.
BIG DEAL!
Apple have become a company more valuable than Microsoft (and most companies, regardless of product or service) even dream of being, and that’s not likely to change. Apple continue to innovate and bring to market changes in distribution of music and hardware on which to play it. Just two examples among dozens. If Apple never achieve more than their current market share, I can’t imagine any downside to it.
However, I also can’t imagine there’ll be much of a percentage change in said market share…..at least not by Microsoft…..
Toss this on flames:
There are now multiple reports that morale over at Microsoft is slipping into morose thanks to years now of consistent product failures, stock stagnation and the fact that the place is run by a Marketing Moron Monkey who is driving the ship into an iceberg. 😯
These are the same outfits that predicted Itanium sales would be something like $35 billion/year in 2000/2001 and were so far wrong that they have continually revised estimates down and are still more optimistic than actual sales.
How these guys can be believed is beyond me
First of all, Hell has to freeze over.
Then, …
One thing is certain. Apple will continue innovating and changing the status quo year after year. This is Apples main advantage over the competition.
We should ask how much IDC got paid by MS for this article?
Non-geeks don’t buy a phone for the OS. They buy a phone to make themselves ‘cool’ with their friends.
Coolness may be the apps, the plastic, the colour, the accessories, the carrier plan or the apps. We all want to brag about our phones. The price is important, but not the most important feature.
If Apple produce an iPhone Nano (not just a cheap iPhone) it will be game over since it will be all coolness people want at a price they can afford.
Nokia saw themselves traveling down the Palm road and hitched a ride with msft to save themselves? 4 years after IPhone and a windows nokia phone not ready until the end of 2011. It just shows how irrelevant both nokia and msft are. Apple has now taken out the biggest OS in msft and the biggest phone maker in Nokia. Msft has no mobile phones and no tablets. Goodbye to both by the end 2012. Apple will own the whole tech space because the only one left is google’s android and it’s a piece of crap.
“Brodkin reports, “There have been some reports that Apple will develop a cheaper, smaller version of the iPhone to go after the low end of the market, but that still remains to be seen.”
BULLSHITE!
It’s already here and it’s called the $49 iPhone GS at AT&T. DUH.
Who let’s these TechTards of the loony bin?
Restatement:
Who let’s these TechTards OUT of the loony bin?
Not quite. That iPhone 3GS actually costs $500 (vs. $650-700 for the iPhone 4). The consumer pays $50 upfront and the rest through an exorbitant monthly plan, which many simply cannot afford. A family of four must spend upwards of $140 per month just on the cheapest plan (minimal data, no free texts), when budget non-contract carriers (such as Virgin Mobile) charge $25 for unlimited data and text, plus 300 minutes.
As long as mainstream carriers continue to lock people in for two years and charge upwards of $60 for most basic voice and data (and no text), many users will stay with the $40 voice-only plans and cheap $0 with contract phones.
I got a HTC trophy for £25 with 100 minutes and unlimited text. Actually like £21 with my ‘discount’..
http://www.healthproductreviewers.com/nutraslim-hca-reviews.html
No iPhone on x carrier effect and bogo effect are 2 reasons android took the lead. This will change over next 2 years and we will see Android decline. Microsoft will suffer the kin effect with the wp7. For now, Nokia users will move on with android mostly and iOS. By 2015, iOS will own 35 %, android 32%, blackberry 15 %, meego 8%, web os 8 %, wp7 2%.
I would like to see Apple produce an inexpensive ‘almost-smart’ phone. Like an iPod Touch, with a 3 inch 640 x 480 screen, plastic case, A4 cpu, no 30-pin Dock connector but Wi-Fi sync, 8GB memory, no BT, with standard apps (Mail. Safari, Calendar, Clock, YouTube, iPod etc) but no native apps capability.
If the iPhone 3GS can be deprecated to sell for $49 with a contract, a smaller phone with reduced specs and constrained computing capabilities might even be free on contract. Apple would make a good margin nevertheless.
Apple has been very careful with its new brand differentiation between the iPhone 4 and the latest iPod Touch (which resembles the iPhone 3GS).
Apple shocked the world, and especially future competitors when the iPad launched with a base price of $499. It would be good for Apple to do a semi-smartphone. Get people in and they will migrate upwards two years later.
Not an iPhone Nano, but an entry-level iPhone Lite.
errr… at end of first para:
I meant no *3rd party* native apps capability.