MacDailyNews Take: No, thank Jobs.
Paczkowski reports, “Needham analyst Charlie Wolf says that’s impossible, because the smartphone market lacks the necessary conditions for a winner-take-all outcome. For one thing, the smartphone market doesn’t yet have a so-called killer app, a modern day Lotus 1-2-3 that would tip it towards a single platform. For another, there’s little applications lock-in. Most smartphone apps have very little learning curve and are far too inexpensive to tie their users to any one platform.”
MacDailyNews Take: Google Android offers the same messy, inconsistent Windows PC “experience,” but without any cost savings, real or perceived. Windows only thrived back in the mid-90s because PCs (and Macs) were so expensive; the upfront cost advantage roped in a lot of people, who were, frankly, ignorant followers who did what their similarly-ignorant co-workers and friends told them to do. Microsoft still coasts along on that momentum today.
The fact is: Apple’s iPhone 3G 3Gs costs just $99 and the 3GS 4 goes for only $199 in the U.S. with a 2-year plan. I’d call any Android device the “Poor Man’s iPhone,” but you have to spend just as much, if not more, to partake in an increasingly fragmented and inferior platform. There’s no real reason to choose Android, people settle for Android. “I’d have bought an iPhone if Verizon offered them.” Just look what’s happening in any country where iPhone is offered on multiple carriers. It’s a bloodbath.
Apple offers consistency to developers of both software and hardware. Just look at the vibrant thrid-party accessories market for iPhone vs. the Zune-like handful of oddball items for Android. If you make a case or a vehicle mount, does it pay to make 14 different Android devices that number under 1 million each, or to make one or two for what’s rapidly approaching 100 million iPhone/iPod touch devices? As Apple’s iPhone expands onto more and more carriers, Android’s only real selling point (“I’m stuck on Verizon or some other carrier that doesn’t offer the iPhone”) evaporates. – SteveJack, MacDailyNews, December 23, 2009
Paczkowski continues, “So if the smartphone market isn’t going to evolve into a winner-take-all situation with Android the winner, how will it evolve?
“We believe that Google’s land grab strategy should enable Android to end up with a 40%+ share and that the iPhone’s share could reach 25% as Apple (AAPL) signs up additional carriers,” says Wolf. “Nokia’s (NOK) share is likely to fall from 39% currently to 20%, although over time it could fall even further. BlackBerry’s share should also fall to around 10% while Windows Mobile share should remain around 5%. “
Full article here.
Cody WIllard writes for MarketWatch, “Can you imagine what would happen to Apple’s marketshare if the second-to-the-latest iPhone were offered even at pre-pay virtual network operators like 7-11 and Circle K and so on so that even those folks looking for a free, pre-paid, no-commitment plan could walk out of their bodega with an iPhone for $49? $29? Models at least two generations old could be free?”
“The downside of course, is that taking a marketshare-at-almost-any-cost approach at Apple would hurt earnings estimates for the next couple years and the stock would likely struggle for that time period,” WIllard writes. “But could you imagine the margin leverage that Apple would enjoy in just two brief years from now when their marketshare would very likely be north of 30% for the entire billion-plus unit global cell phone market? 300 million iPhones sold in 2015? Half a billion iPhones in use by 2015?”
WIllard writes, “Assuming Apple’s much more likely scenario of continuing its current policy of taking big money payments to give exclusive rights and still take the market share its going to take, I figure Apple’s a $1000 stock by 2015 anyway. But if they were to go crazy for marketshare and even risk positive cash flows and even dig into some of that $40 billion checking account balance they’ve got, I think the stock might still be at $300 in 2013…on its way to $1500 by 2015.”
Read more in the full article here.
The problem here is they only compare an OS to a phone. If your going to compare fairly then android to iOS which would be allot bigger then android.
Mr. Jobs comment’s at the recent “music” event shed a little light on where he’s headed. Didn’t he say the iPod was an “iPhone without the phone” ? By 2015 the telcos may be scrambling trying to make sense of their ever changing world. FaceTime is gonna have a huge impact on all this.
iCal that.
The other thing I haven’t seen mentioned anywhere about the Windows overtaking Apple’s lead way back when, and now Android will too…….. blah blah blah, is that part of Window’s appeal was to do it yourselfers and hobbyists. There is none of that going on in mobile computers and handsets.
Dear MDN, your take is unfortunately wrong. In the rest of the world, 70% of mobile phones sold are prepaid without a contract. Many Android phones now sells for $180 on prepaid (no contract), whereas the cheapest iPhone on prepaid (without a contract) costs about $600. So saying that Android has no cost advantage is pure fiction! Android devices are much much cheaper, and will overtake the iPhone in pure market share, it’s inevitable.
who cares if history repeats itself? who would you rather be today? Apple? or Microsoft?
Marketshare ain’t everything.
It’s funny to read endless comments explaining why something wont happen. Almost demonstrates that it it happening.
There is no Android phone. There are dozens of crappy phones running the Android OS, which is ok, but not great.
The Android app store is the fragmented windows-style model, and the music is hard to sort out because its not the biggest retailer, Apple and iTunes.
The Android model is fine for the majority who wont use or dont understand all the great apps on an iPhone.
Apple will always make around 50% of the available PROFIT for ALL smartphones.
Google will struggle to monetize their OS because they dont make phones.
Ads on computers, sure. On Phones? Not so much, I think.
This will be a non-issue once Apple drops the new multitouch patent win on the copycats. With an injunction, no more scrolling screens using friction interface so say byebye to HTC, Samsung, Motorola android devices. Will serve Google right for trying to steal Apple’s secrets like Microsoft did in the 80s.
MDN: “Just look what’s happening in any country where iPhone is offered on multiple carriers. It’s a bloodbath.”
I cant offer any official stats but I was sat in the local Starbucks on Saturday watching the world go by and almost every phone that I saw being pulled out of a bag or pocket was a iPhone 3g/gs with a surprisingly high number of iPhone4’s too.
Only annecdotal I know and hardly scientific.
Walking around the mall most of the mobile stores were pushing the iPhone4 very heavily. O2 was virtually plastered in iPhone4 advertising…despite them being out of stock…
In comparison I saw a single poster for a Samsung Galaxy 2 on a billboard, but even though it was showing just the phone, just like the iPhone4 advertising it just looked cheap, almost brash compared to the retrain of the iPhone ads. There were a few Android phones in general window displays and I spotted a few teens walking around with Blackberries (probably because they are now been given away free with some of the low price deals).
I had the misfortune of messing around with a Galaxy & a Blackberry at a BBQ a few weeks ago. The Galaxy owner had no idea how to drop WiFi to allow a 3g connection, the Blackberry owner had just had it sent as a free upgrade and had no idea how to set up mail….after messing around with them for a few minutes I was amazed how difficult there were to operate…maybe its just that I’m so familiar with the iPhone…regardless in both cases the owners looked enviously on at my iPhone4 when I showed them access to the same functions.
Im trying to get my g/f a iPhone 4 to replace her 3GS for her birthday, they are back ordered 3 weeks online, sold out at every carrier store and at the Apple store there are queues out of the door and still no stock.
Sure if someone without a preference goes in a phone store for a phone and isnt too bothered bothered any salesman should be able to send them out of the door with an Android phone ‘which is just like a IPhone’ and Im sure that there will be circumstances where even if they like the iPhone4 the cost would be prohibative, but for anyone making a concious decision to hand over £500 for a phone (PAYG) or £30-60 pm month (contract) if they want an IPhone4 they will wait.
Going off topic, Apple are on a roll…I work for HP, I get HP kit issued I dont ned to buy anything from Apple but still I have spent £000’s on Apple kit over the last few years. I dont even carry my IPAQ around with me any more its so bad to use. There doesnt seem to be any built up demand within the company for the Palm products, most of the boards on the messaging site are full of questions about why iPhone isnt allowed on the network. My brand new laptop, issued just into the new year is already suffering from slowdown & bluescreens…if I didnt have to fly the flag when solutioning for clients I’d simply travel with my iPad rather then carry my laptop around…
I work for a competitor and I’ve become a fanboy…all thanks to an iPod i inherited from my brother 5-6 years ago…now Apple seems to have a strangle hold in the house, we have 4 kids each with iPod Touches, the 2 eldest are desperate for IPhones (they are only 12!) the main home PC is a iMac, we have a Macbook Air both a couple of years old and both have been zero maintainance (great if you are expected to fix everyones IT problems cos they know you work for an IT company..I can at leaast get a rest when I get home), I have a iPhone4 anda 3g iPad, my g/f has a 3GS (about to be replaced) there are a couple of old style nano’s hanging around and the new Apple TV has my interest…
Its definately the ecosystem at play…further evidence? look at the collage PC market Apples share is rapidly increasing…how much is that down to the pull thru effect of iPod & iPhones?
I think Google will do exactly the same thing as Microsoft Did. Apple got to the market first with a well-designed and superior product, Google will fill the market with fragmented crap whose only benefits are price and availability. The market will grow huge, and people will have truckloads of crap in their pockets. Apple will be left to pick up the pieces. Apple will later release some even better products,after people have already had a taste of the “Good Enough” Apple will have a new market to take over. History will record that Apple had every opportunity to remain the market leader, and that they chose to let Android overtake them. It is kind of like the idea that it doesn’t matter how you win the race, but just that you inevitably win it. It will likely take Apple at least another 10 years to be at the very top of market-share again but in doing so Apple’s position will have been obtained in such a way that they cannot be considered a monopoly.
@MDN…”Windows only thrived back in the mid-90s because PCs (and Macs) were so expensive; the upfront cost advantage roped in a lot of people, who were, frankly, ignorant followers who did what their similarly-ignorant co-workers and friends told them to do. Microsoft still coasts along on that momentum today.”
That and because there is a million times more software options for Windows PC then MAC. This was even more true back in the 90’s. Think about it, a big deal game that comes out on the mac has already been played on the PC for 5 years, plus we (PC users) have already played the four sequels and have forgotten all about those games because newer and better games are out that takes advantage of the latest graphics cards that aren’t available for the mac (Because apple gives you like 4 config options for a new mac so if it’s not there you are out of luck)
This is why PC’s will always rule. Software. PERIOD.
If by “do to” you mean render them to near useless, hacked monsters that you must use fearfully, then yes, I think it will. Except for Apple smartphones, of course.
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />
iPhone for free with pay as you go plans? Sounds unlikely doesn’t it? Seems more like Android becoming a Windows platform as a competitor to Apple on the sam level that Windows Os and Mac Os battle each other on pc’s today, as evident by even companies like Sciphone using Android http://sciphone.limewebs.com/
Android is less expensive and that will translate into lower call,text and data plans compared to iPhone plans.
So the answer is … yes of course.
Fantastic post, hey there I discovered this post while searching net. I have read number of much more submit they are rather educational also. Good job and keep inside the fantastic operate.