Handicapping Apple’s special events; a study of 17 invitations issued over the past 9 years

Apple Online StorePhilip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune, “Silicon Alley Insider’s Dan Frommer raised a good question Wednesday. ‘Is Apple really going to announce a TV gadget,’ he asked, ‘at an event with a guitar on the invitation?'”

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“The invitation he refers to is the one beckoning the press to an Apple special event in San Francisco next Wednesday, Sept. 1,” P.E.D. reports. “The ‘TV gadget’ is the lower-cost ($99 versus $229) version of the Apple TV set-top box widely rumored to be in the works.”

P.E.D. reports, “In this context, the chronology of Apple invitations dating back to 2001 compiled by AAPLinvestors’ Terry Gregory is instructive. If you match the wording and imagery with the products and services that were actually announced, it’s clear that Apple’s marketing department gives itself a lot of leeway in these things.”

Full article here.

AAPLInvestors’ Apple special event chronology (Apple’s press invitation vs. what was announced) here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Lynn W.” for the heads up.]


  1. MDN – your app needs improvement. It is constantly locking up from my iPhone 4 and iPhone 1st gen. I have been shutting it down and relaunching but I’m about to stop using it.

    This sept 1 invite is the most ambiguous yet. Does half a guitar mean that music is only half the story?

  2. This is how it goes.

    Steve comes on stage, flashes a few numbers on good apple is doing like a proud father.

    Steve intros new product(s). He and others show a few demos

    Show ends music guest does a number.

    We all get on our favorite Mac site blog site praise and bitch about everything we wanted and what apple should have done.

    We go on merry way and apple makes billions as we still get suckered into buying the new product because “(insert excuse here)”

  3. One guarantee for that special event, Apple releases the next generation iPod touch.

    Rumors for that event:
    – Minor incremental updates to the other iPods
    – Killing off the other iPods
    – Leaving the other iPods the hell alone
    – iTv based on iOS
    – iTV integrated into an actual TV
    – New iTunes TV show rentals
    – The Beatles on iTunes (has Yoko died yet?)
    – CDMA iPhone
    – Small form factor iPad
    – Some other new fabulous earth shaking device no one has guessed at yet, like an iGuitar

  4. Yo…, you don’t have to make it sound like a bad thing! Except for the last line. That was uncalled for. There have been few products, this decade, that justify such a comment. And few of us bought those products. You can complain about the high prices, which match a high functionality we might not need. You can complain about the styles, which are a matter of taste. Or you can complain about the occasional fault requiring, and getting, a recall. But the vast majority of the products have done well because they are good products which find a niche in the market.
    A much better record than any of the competition can claim.

  5. To all who are having trouble with the MDN app:

    Just save MDN as an icon to the iOS home page and voilà! you’ve got
    a stable MDN “app.”

    MDN’s App Store app is just a port of the mobile website anyway.

  6. The list of the September events for the past 4 years is a clear indication that this event will be an iPod refresh event. We’ll get new generations of shuffle, nano and touch. We’ll likely also see classic finally discontinued (does anyone actually still buy that one?). We may see some changes to iTunes (perhaps the TV show rental thing).

    We will NOT see anything Mac-related, or iPhone-related. This is the usual event that follows the educational iPod giveway (‘Perfect Companion’ promotion, where they give you an iPod touch with every new Mac), when old stock is cleared away for the new models.

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