“About five years ago, when blogging as an analyst, I asserted that computing and informational relevance had started shifting from the Windows desktop to cloud services delivered anytime, anywhere and on anything,” Joe Wilcox wtites for Betanews. “The day of Windows’ reckoning is come: 2010 will mark dramatic shifts away from Microsoft’s monopoly to something else. Change is inevitable, and like IBM in the 1980s, Microsoft can’t hold back its destiny during this decade. The Windows era is over.”
“What’s surprising: New competition encroaching on Microsoft’s Windows territory. Mobile device-to-cloud competition’s shifting relevance bears striking similarities to the move from mainframes to PCs, and it is a long, ongoing trend. Microsoft’s newer problem is sudden and unexpected: Competing operating systems moving up from smartphones to PCs or PC-like device,” Wilcox writes. “Apple’s iPhone OS on iPad is one example.”
Sure, “Windows is a cash machine. But so was the IBM mainframe monopoly before the dawn of the PC era and for many years afterwards. The DOS/Windows PC didn’t destroy IBM or its mainframe monopoly, but simply diminish its computing and informational relevance. Windows is on the same track,” Wilcox writes. “The mobile device-to-cloud applications stack will merely displace Windows’ relevance. It’s inevitable.”
Wilcox writes, “Still, it might not be obvious to many people that the Windows cash machine could run out. That’s because change can be dramatic and sudden, although the causes and progression tend to be long-time coming. The Berlin Wall fell suddenly in 1989, but not without Perestroika and a warming of the Cold War preceding it. Similarly, Windows’ dominance will seemingly change suddenly and, I predict, during the first half of this decade. A new era dawns.”
“Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer should have listened to me. In December, I gave 10 reasons why Microsoft should buy Palm. Had he bought Palm, Microsoft’s future phone strategy would be stronger and Windows wouldn’t be weakened by a major partner adopting an alternative-OS strategy,” Wilcox writes. “HP already has announced a WebOS-based tablet. HP’s next, logical step is to release a laptop running WebOS. Losing HP is bad, but there may be more trouble coming. Sony is yet another traitor in the making.”
Full article, in which Wilcox mistakenly thinks far too highly of Google’s derivative Android’s future, here.
Microsoft can’t get out of its own way.
The comments are fantastic, loads of whinging and nashing and bleating from the windows sheep.
I kinda feel sorry for M$.
Don’t get me wrong, I hope they keep doing what they’re doing and Ballmer stays there forever.
But they just don’t get it. They can’t see the forrest through the trees.
>But they just don’t get it. They can’t see the forrest through the trees.
“Forrest, Forrest Gump.”
Over?
It never even got started (in my household)
FWIT, the Windoze fanboys have all moved on to Android.
Ohh, I just read Matias Duarte jumped ship and is probably headed to Google.
Duarte is the creator of WebOS and this news can’t be good for Microsoft.
HP now owns WebOS and Google will have Duarte to come in and clean and polish Android.
I believe the relevancy of Microsoft will dissipate exponentially, unless of course Ballmer pulls a wabbit out of the hat with VS.
“Competition from once loyal partners is something else.”
Partners obtained through intimidation tactics are never really partners. They turn on you as soon as the opportunity presents itself.
Microsoft has once again been out maneuvered. Fortunately, this time the buying public is not clueless for the most part, and its ‘partners’ are not easily influenced (e.g. forced) to bring it back on top.
MSFT’s day as being the Alpha dog and bully on the school playground are over.
Microsoft: “Stupid is as stupid does”.
@ occams razor
Gah… The stupidity of those comments makes my brain throb.
Hmm… Maybe the immanent collapse of industrial civilization will have an impact on this “new era”. Chuckle, chuckle.
This is but one of thousands of article to follow, written by people who grow braver with each passing day, that mocks Microsoft. We love to tear down giants.
Before long the media will begin exposing Microsoft’s dirty little secrets, their astro-turfing measures to steer and even rewrite their criminal history, and before you know it, corporations and customers alike will stand in line to contribute their own horror stories.
The drama will make for an interesting movie; its genesis, the rapid growth, the rise and fall of the most powerful company on earth.
Let’s cast the characters for the movie, k? Any ideas?
Ballmer: James Gandolfini ?
Gates: Robert Carradine ?
I read the comments, now I need another shower.
Marking down a RESPONSE from the author? And talking about how Apple’s going to fail when “Fascist Dictator Steve Jobs’ liver fails”? Dude never said that Windows was going to die — just that it was going to lose its prominence.
Windows is not just constructed for the lowest common denominator computers, but marketed to the lowest common denominator people…
Wilcox is a Windows apologist. He may give a backhanded compliment to Apple once in a while, but still, he’s the enemy.
Jackholes like Paul Thurrott will never get this.
The King is dead, long live the King!
mw: end!
He only saw this coming five years ago?! It was clear over ten years ago that Microsoft was out of ideas. The company’s only expertise was in predatory business practices, and the top management was/is technologically illiterate. So it didn’t matter how much talent they hired, since Gates and Ballmer didn’t understand the first thing about technology. Good ideas almost never made it into products. Copying Apple, an early success for them, became harder and harder because management never grasped Apple’s conceptual thinking. And then msft proved to be bad businessmen when the predatory behavior become less effective. Their new product ventures and acquisitions have failed spectacularly.
Microsoft has been dead for a decade. But it’s such an enormous corpse, it takes a long time to rot.
Microsoft’s biggest failings in the last five years: neglecting their mobile unit, not really trying to compete with iTunes and iPod (Zune and Zune Marketplace is a joke), and not taking Google and Apple seriously.
Not taking Google and Apple seriously is a Balmer ego problem. Microsoft needs a new CEO because Balmer is still in denial and has run the company into mediocrity.
Apple has momentum, so does Google. I just hope Apple takes the consumer’s living room seriously; Apple TV. This will be the next battle ground, IP TV. Google and Boxee know it. It’s time for Apple to dominate that market too.
The company willing to kill the PC was the one who invented it.
That’s the difference between Apple and the others.
Are you sure the picture really shows dawn and not dusk?
I once used the same doubtful metaphor . . .
How can Sony and HP be traitors when they just want to serve something better to their customers than a Windows box?
BS.
And what a bunch of deluded replies here.
Windows 7 has already become the 2nd most widely used O/S in the world behind XP, is a very short period of time, and desktops have seen a resurgence in sales. I don’t see Windows desktops going away soon. iPads are not going to make traditional computers go away. No way.
I also don’t buy that cloud computing is the future. Sorry but I do like the idea of my data and applications to be housed in a networked “cloud”. Who is that really going to benefit anyway ? The providers, and the hackers who steal all our data one day !
or they can’t see the gump for the slump.
Funny how all the statistical geniuses never count iPhones, iPod Touches, or ipads as personal computers or Os’s…
What would the numbers really look like if they did…?
What does the horizon look like with those in mind?
Anew Era, a new paradigm.
Microsoft has abused their customers for far too long. First they got away with grand theft when they stole the GUI from Apple. Then they should have been charged with felonies for the crappy “updated” operating systems such as Vista. They will pay the price for lack of innovation and I won’t cry for them.
“Apple doesn’t offer an open platform like Microsoft does.”
The above is an idiot’s post on Joe’s story. The Mac is open. Anyone can make software for the Mac. Even Microsoft can make crap software for it.
Unix is open and Apple’s OS X uses Unix. OS X also uses internet standards. How open is that?
That is one beautiful picture. It does illustrates the title of the story quite well
Change us only sudden to those who have their head up their but.
These Windows bats are going apeshit on the comments over there… haha
M$ is dooooomed, i tell ya!
Comment from the article:
“… Your suggesting that PC’s are going away, which is like asking Americans to give up thier guns. It will be met with a lot of opposition.”
This seemed to reflect the opinions of a lot of posters. And this, I think, is exactly MS’s problem. MS and MS fanboys, think that the general public is as invested to MS as they are.
But they’re not. It’s familiar & safe, but that’s about it.
The sheeple will buy whatever they think everyone else is buying. The second MS gets the stink of death on it, people will migrate away.
Take Joe Wilcox with a grain of salt. As @Anonymous© said so well, Wilcox is a Windows apologist, an Android fanboy and an Apple hater. He is also a failed IT analyst, and BetaNews has historically been a vehemently anti-Apple publication. They stand for the status quo, for protecting the hegemony of corporate IT Nazis. Apple threatens that order. So to Wilcox, Apple must be destroyed.
The good news is that Wilcox is often dramatically wrong, like so many analysts. While I agree with his belief that cloud-based computing services will grow (and I would not be surprised to see Steve Jobs detail what Apple has been building in North Carolina in his address at WWDC), getting the broader public to embrace and trust all their data to cloud-based systems will take a long time. A cloud is only as good as having access to clean Internet access. And that means the cloud server is a potential single point of failure.
What Wilcox does not mention is that Microsoft has, to its credit, invested a tremendous amount to develop cloud-based systems of its own. Google has certainly sunk a tremendous amount of investment and time in this, as has Amazon. Apple might be further behind at this point, but is likely concentrating its resources and focus on what the company does best. I don’t think that Microsoft will want to be left behind – too much is at stake for the company, love them or hate them (I’m in the latter camp most of the time).
Google’s aggressive expansion of Android, Chrome, search and cloud-based computing is somewhat worrisome. And as much as we collectively hate Microsoft, I am beginning to wonder if lines are not being drawn, and alliances formed. Given the growing acrimony between Google and Apple, would it surprise you if we saw Apple throwing its weight behind Bing? Or greater cooperation with Microsoft’s programming tools, as was rumored today about a possible seven-minute presentation by Steve Ballmer during the upcoming Stevenote?
Obviously, Google, with its vast data centers, several years of work on cloud-based apps and nascent but increasingly aggressive attempts to market mobile and desktop operating systems, would be cause for concern by Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.We could see the day in the not too distant future of a couple of camps: A Google/Adobe alliance versus Apple, Microsoft and for cloud-based storage only, Amazon. The coming years might see an entirely new war.
Time to hunker down. Lock and load. This could get ugly.
Mind you, I am not saying that Apple will join itself at the hip with Microsoft. But I would not be surprised if the two companies cooperate more.
The enemy of the enemy is my friend.
But don’t waste your time about that egotistical pipsqueak Wilcox. When he said, “Microsoft should have listened to me…” you know that Wilcox suffers from delusions of mediocrity.
@Big Als MBP
“Apple doesn’t offer an open platform like Microsoft does.”
Yeah, I saw that ludicrous comment too.
What I love is the insane assumption that M$ is open.
What a bunch of maroons.
Android is the new Windows.
@not a windows lover
“…While I agree with his belief that cloud-based computing services will grow (and I would not be surprised to see Steve Jobs detail what Apple has been building in North Carolina in his address at WWDC), getting the broader public to embrace and trust all their data to cloud-based systems will take a long time. A cloud is only as good as having access to clean Internet access. And that means the cloud server is a potential single point of failure.
What Wilcox does not mention is that Microsoft has, to its credit, invested a tremendous amount to develop cloud-based systems of its own. Google has certainly sunk a tremendous amount of investment and time in this, as has Amazon. Apple might be further behind at this point, but is likely concentrating its resources and focus on what the company does best. I don’t think that Microsoft will want to be left behind – too much is at stake for the company, love them or hate them (I’m in the latter camp most of the time).”
It clearly wasn’t difficult to get the public to embrace the iPad, despite everyone wondering what it could possibly be used for, and who would use it. The iPad is already set up for cloud computing.
This stuff is only accelerating. Apple further behind? Yes, that’s the perception. And that is exactly where Apple likes to be. They haven’t been doing nothing while Google have been “working on” this beta-quality Google docs. Apple is getting its duck in a row and laying foundations. People don’t know it yet, but they have been waiting for Apple’s next revelation.
I personally don’t use Google Docs and stuff because the UI and user experience is just too painful. I do sync my stuff using Mobile Me, and I like iTunes and iWork (Beta) for its polish. Then there is Time Machine, and apparently iTunes Media that we will soon be able to stream from any internet connection (because it will be in the cloud). Don’t worry, Apple has it in hand.
Why do other’s use Google Docs and stuff — because it is mobile and convenient, but maybe also because the desktop experience on Windows, and having to trust their stuff to Entourage and a rogue desktop Windows System that needs re-installing every few months is just not what the general public really finds palatable.
Why would it be a problem for the general public to trust to Cloud Computing done right? They have to put up with Google taking stuff from their home networks as Google moves down the street. They have to put up with losing stuff in Windows every other day. They have to put up with whole corporations and hospitals and schools being shut down for days on end with every new Windows virus.
Right now the Cloud might not be perceived as any better, but that’s because of the level of expectation everyone already has about the crappy computing experience they have to put up with every day. And that dog of a program IE with its complete security failure and lack of support for modern internet standards has not helped. No wonder pundits say no-one wants to trust to Cloud computing — it’s only one more vector to go wrong, it’s the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
The iPad is already turning heads everywhere people see one. And it will show Cloud Computing in action, a technology and market it will be seen that Apple will very quickly show a solid presence in. Everyone will again wonder how it wasn’t just so obvious just a few months before it happens big.
@tcarlson
immanent … you meant imminent
i think benjamin franklin had the same problem with an ambiguous carving of the sun at the constitutional convention.
His reasoning for Microsoft buying Palm is amazing in its ignorance. The only reason to buy palm was for patents and WebOS. I assume Microsoft isn’t worried about patents, and they have a rival phone OS. He says they could be hurt by a handset maker switching to another platform, but Microsoft could have Foxconn whip them up a phone anytime they want. I am surprised anyone covering the tech industry would think this would be a good combination.
ebbs and flows…virtually all industries have shown that over a long enough term, every market leader eventually falls. Apple will have its day in the sun and it too will fall again. It’s the nature of the beast. Nobody has worked out how to remain the long term market leader. Sooner or later a bunch of smart asses in their garage come along and knock you off. And for us consumers that is a very good thing because we are the winners in a competitive business environment.
Great graphic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
wow – windows fans has some pretty ignorant comments. It’s easy to see why they adore Ballmer and Steve has such an easy time whipping them – they lack taste and vision.
Literally every mac user has used windows, made a comparative analysis and bought a mac – while the microsofties continue to live in a vacuum filled with idealisms when they refuse to try anything else — how sad they are!
the point is MS is not going anywhere immediately but as of now it is on decline.
1. losing the casual home user
2. losing in new consumer device segments (failing to gain market share)
3. Losing some gamers to dedicated consoles (ok Xbox 360 is MS) but probably make less on that then Window OS sells)
yes looking around now it seems insane to say the MS era is over – they own over 90% of desktop market and most business still run XP and IE6.
…But who would have thought GM and Chrysler would both go bankrupt in the same year 15 years ago…
@Ringgo You’re absolutely right. Thanks for the editing.
Windows is a monopoly because no one sells a great OS that can be loaded onto any Cheap Beige Box. That’s MS’s bread and butter. That won’t change..
But the PC Era… while not dying, is just not where all the money is anymore. People love PCs, they love Netbooks (vomit), they love big keyboards… but the margins on these are just nowhere (except in Cupertino)…
Guys like HP make a ton of money off the printer cartridges, NOT netbooks with cheapo WinXp on there. As people see diminishing returns in upgrading to a new PC every 2 years… Yeah, Microsoft has a problem.
And suddenly, the text based Winphone7 is the Savior.
And no, that does not look good on a tablet… that, is a Finder window in Column view… not a tablet OS.
Hey, MDN!
Make the graphic clickable as a link to the full-size version! I want it for a desktop background for my MBP. 1680×1050 please. Thanks!
–mAc
“Windows 7 has already become the 2nd most widely used O/S in the world behind XP”
Really? Windows 7 has become the second most widely used OS in the alternate universe you live? Interesting.
Here in this universe, generally known as the real world, Windows 7 has only managed to capture a marketshare somewhere around 8 to 11%. That puts it way, way, way behind XP. Which is embarassing enough since Win7 is supposed to replace it, but what’s even more embarassing is that it’s also lagging behind Vista.
It’s kind of heartwarming to know that at least in your universe Windows 7 isn’t a debacle, like it is in this one.
The sun has definitely set on the real world version of Microsoft, though it will continue to shine forever in the minds of its enthusiast cult.
I liked that picture so much I drag and dropped it to my MBP and into iPhoto to save, and set it as my desktop picture! NICE. Really represents the whole week and the announcement.
Yeah it amazing how many people have bought iPads lately. (Not to mention pods and phones over the years). As small percent of them would be mac users but the rest are Windows users.
“The Windows era is over.”
Ding, Dong, The Bitch Is Dead.
Not quite. But the MS demolition era is in full swing. It’s going to be fun. Let’s watch…
Beating the dead horse:
“Apple doesn’t offer an open platform like Microsoft does.”
A few words and phrases to blast this Tardy statement to hell:
Darwin
OpenDarwin
PureDarwin
GNU-Darwin
Darwine
SEDarwin
MacPorts
X11
XNU
Meanwhile Microsoft persists in using the SCO puppet company in lawsuits to kill off Linux.
Killed it dead.
Uh, this also means the end of the Mac is neigh. As goes desktop computing, so goes the Macintosh.
@theloniousMac
sounds like you’re beating a dead horse on days of our lives?