Joe Wilcox: ‘The Windows era is over, a new era dawns’

“About five years ago, when blogging as an analyst, I asserted that computing and informational relevance had started shifting from the Windows desktop to cloud services delivered anytime, anywhere and on anything,” Joe Wilcox wtites for Betanews. “The day of Windows’ reckoning is come: 2010 will mark dramatic shifts away from Microsoft’s monopoly to something else. Change is inevitable, and like IBM in the 1980s, Microsoft can’t hold back its destiny during this decade. The Windows era is over.”

“What’s surprising: New competition encroaching on Microsoft’s Windows territory. Mobile device-to-cloud competition’s shifting relevance bears striking similarities to the move from mainframes to PCs, and it is a long, ongoing trend. Microsoft’s newer problem is sudden and unexpected: Competing operating systems moving up from smartphones to PCs or PC-like device,” Wilcox writes. “Apple’s iPhone OS on iPad is one example.”

Sure, “Windows is a cash machine. But so was the IBM mainframe monopoly before the dawn of the PC era and for many years afterwards. The DOS/Windows PC didn’t destroy IBM or its mainframe monopoly, but simply diminish its computing and informational relevance. Windows is on the same track,” Wilcox writes. “The mobile device-to-cloud applications stack will merely displace Windows’ relevance. It’s inevitable.”

Wilcox writes, “Still, it might not be obvious to many people that the Windows cash machine could run out. That’s because change can be dramatic and sudden, although the causes and progression tend to be long-time coming. The Berlin Wall fell suddenly in 1989, but not without Perestroika and a warming of the Cold War preceding it. Similarly, Windows’ dominance will seemingly change suddenly and, I predict, during the first half of this decade. A new era dawns.”

“Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer should have listened to me. In December, I gave 10 reasons why Microsoft should buy Palm. Had he bought Palm, Microsoft’s future phone strategy would be stronger and Windows wouldn’t be weakened by a major partner adopting an alternative-OS strategy,” Wilcox writes. “HP already has announced a WebOS-based tablet. HP’s next, logical step is to release a laptop running WebOS. Losing HP is bad, but there may be more trouble coming. Sony is yet another traitor in the making.”

Full article, in which Wilcox mistakenly thinks far too highly of Google’s derivative Android’s future, here.

51 Comments

  1. I kinda feel sorry for M$.

    Don’t get me wrong, I hope they keep doing what they’re doing and Ballmer stays there forever.

    But they just don’t get it. They can’t see the forrest through the trees.

  2. Ohh, I just read Matias Duarte jumped ship and is probably headed to Google.

    Duarte is the creator of WebOS and this news can’t be good for Microsoft.

    HP now owns WebOS and Google will have Duarte to come in and clean and polish Android.

    I believe the relevancy of Microsoft will dissipate exponentially, unless of course Ballmer pulls a wabbit out of the hat with VS.

  3. “Competition from once loyal partners is something else.”

    Partners obtained through intimidation tactics are never really partners. They turn on you as soon as the opportunity presents itself.

    Microsoft has once again been out maneuvered. Fortunately, this time the buying public is not clueless for the most part, and its ‘partners’ are not easily influenced (e.g. forced) to bring it back on top.

    MSFT’s day as being the Alpha dog and bully on the school playground are over.

  4. This is but one of thousands of article to follow, written by people who grow braver with each passing day, that mocks Microsoft. We love to tear down giants.

    Before long the media will begin exposing Microsoft’s dirty little secrets, their astro-turfing measures to steer and even rewrite their criminal history, and before you know it, corporations and customers alike will stand in line to contribute their own horror stories.

    The drama will make for an interesting movie; its genesis, the rapid growth, the rise and fall of the most powerful company on earth.

    Let’s cast the characters for the movie, k? Any ideas?

    Ballmer: James Gandolfini ?
    Gates: Robert Carradine ?

  5. I read the comments, now I need another shower.

    Marking down a RESPONSE from the author? And talking about how Apple’s going to fail when “Fascist Dictator Steve Jobs’ liver fails”? Dude never said that Windows was going to die — just that it was going to lose its prominence.

    Windows is not just constructed for the lowest common denominator computers, but marketed to the lowest common denominator people…

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