Analyst: iPad’s million-selling blockbuster first month is just the beginning for Apple

invisibleSHIELD case for iPad“Believe it or not, Apple has sold a million iPads, just 28 days after the device went on sale,” Carl Gutierrez reports for Forbes. “That pace even outstrips that of the first iPhone… it probably would have been more had demand not outpaced supply.”

“Monday was a good day for Apple, as its announcement pushed shares of the company up 2%, or $5.26, to close at $266.35,” Gutierrez reports. “Andy Hargreaves, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities, said that Apple can keep up this rate, assuming they can overcome their supply constraints. ‘They’ll be launching in different countries soon so just the act of expanding their distribution will accelerate basic sales,’ Hargreaves said.”

Gutierrez reports, “He expects Apple to sell nine million units by the end of 2010.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Slowly, but surely, the analysts’ iPad unit sales estimates creep ever upwards to less laughable levels. However, unless Santa cancels Christmas this year, Hargreaves’ estimate is still too low.

Apple sold over 1,000,000 units in 28 days in April with only one of two models on the market, U.S. only, with supply severely constrained. iPad 3G units just launched on Friday evening. Roll-outs in international markets come next. And, as we sadi, what about the holiday quarter? Sheesh, you’d think that by now, at least one analyst would be able to do the math.

36 Comments

  1. Wait until it gets to Australia. This is iPhone country. A lot of people have iPhones and almost everyone else is talking about it. I am sure interest in iPad will be the same.

  2. “”It’s more than 1.3 million in a month which is a 12 million by New Years Day pace ONLY IN AMERICA.”

    ————————

    Yes, but is demand for this first gen unit going to keep at the same pace as it’s opening week?

  3. I could have missed it but has MDN done the math in one of its takes?
    Analysts always (way) too low.
    What’s the estimate of MDN for the end of 2010?!

  4. It’s interesting that the one million number does not include sales on Saturday and Sunday. It only went on sale at 5pm on Friday (not even for the whole day), and that’s when it hit one million.

    So what really took total iPad sales over the one million mark on Friday are the iPad 3G pre-orders, which Apple counted as being “sold” on Friday.

    Therefore, considering that pre-order number was probably large, Apple could have gone well over one million in one shot. Yet Apple’s announcement that it sold its one millionth iPad on Friday is entirely accurate. Add the numbers for the first full weekend of iPad 3G sales at the stores, and one million per month is probably very conservative.

    And as pointed out, there will be two types of iPads on sale going forward, and international sales starting up at the end of May. The only thing that will keep Apple from selling more than 15 million iPads in 2010 will be Apple not being able to make 15 million iPads during 2010.

  5. Analysts figure the demand will level off after first release, boy are they wrong. It’s still ramping up.

    Did you notice how things have changed since Steve’s original showing of the iPad?… nobody makes fun of the name anymore.

  6. There are people in London – no names – who would kill all their relatives for an iPad. Painlessly of course. We’re not barbarians. Unless it had to be done otherwise, in which case, so be it ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” /> Relatives can always be replaced, but an iPad is a true friend. I’ve just realised. I am going mad… Help us. Mr Jobs, bring us iPads now. Be generous like FDR – England needs you! The state of our economy it might have to be “Lend lease”

  7. @ MikeK
    “Yes, but is demand for this first gen unit going to keep at the same pace as it’s opening week?”

    Apple sold 1 million units of the first iPhone in the first 74 days. According to last quarter’s numbers, they’re now selling over 2 million current iPhones every 74 days.

    Now of course the price has come down and the hardware has improved, but it’s entirely reasonable to think the initial pace could stay high through the end of the year.

  8. “it probably would have been more had demand not outpaced supply.”

    This doesn’t make sense to me. Seems sales would have been less “had demand not outpaced supply”.

    Sometimes I think people dont understand the relationship between supply and demand.

  9. maclouie,

    Which part doesn’t make sense?

    The demand for the device had outpaced the supply. Therefore, since the supply wasn’t sufficient to meet the demand, they sold one million. Had the supply been able to catch up with the demand (not allowing to be outpaced), they would have sold more. In other words, had the demand not outpaced the supply (had the demand been caught up by supply).

    Does it make sense now?

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