“Analyst Maynard Um with UBS issued a new note to investors Wednesday morning, in which he noted a recent Q-Series survey that found Apple leads the smartphone industry in both mindshare and retention rate,” Marsal reports. “Among respondents, 56 percent said they believe Apple is the best smartphone manufacturer, and the implied retention rate among a sample of 310 users is 95 percent — well beyond, Um noted, anything else seen ever in the industry.”
“‘While we believe that this retention can change rapidly, anecdotally during our survey we even received emails from three respondents asking when the next iPhone will be available,’ the analyst wrote,” Marsal reports. “A whopping 90 percent of iPhone owners think that Apple is the best handset maker on the market.”
Marsal reports, “The report also issued the first estimate from UBS on iPad sales. Um expects Apple to ship 2.1 million in its 2010 fiscal year, growing to 4.6 million in 2011.”
MacDailyNews Take: We hereby claim official coinage of “Once you go iPhone, you’ll never disown.” Inspired, of course, by the famous “Once you go Mac, you’ll never go back.” And, Maynard Um’s iPad estimates for both Apple’s 2010 and 2011 fiscal years are laughably low.
Um….this guys credentials are so short
There’s no downgrading for an experience discovered
um, the industry already knew this
Um, is um, under estimating iPad sales based on the fact that only half of the models have hit the street. Um, if I were um, going to put my name and credibility on iPad estimates I’d wait till the other half of the models hit the street and then well see what sales are really like. You also Um will need to um, see what impact Global availability will do to sales before you start predicting long term iPad sales.
2.1 Million?? They’ll be at 1 Million by the end of April (including 3G), and that’s in just the USA.
Wow, he gets a paycheck for that??
Now Apple is borrowing a page from Microsoft’s play book: lock-in. Please don’t misunderstand me. I am not being critical. But nevertheless it it ironic.
previous post:
it it = it is
good grief!
you’re not locked in to the iPhone – most of the apps are pretty cheap or free…
The iPad, makes everything else look bad!
Reminds me of that asswipe Johnny Cockroachon who knowingly defended that nasty murderer OJ asswipe Simpson.
Though it is indeed quite pathetic that he gets paid for writing these self-fulfilling prophecies, he is right: I see no reason why I would ever want to move away from the iPhone – only to go to the next version.
Not only is the device itself simply a league ahead of nearly all would-be clones, but the App Store adds another threshold that leaves the competition far behind.
It’s not because of the ‘investment’ in the software in itself, as this represents peanut$ – it’s what this software allows you to do with the device – and what you cannot find so easily and abundantly on any other platform.
My better half is not a computer savvy person, she just wants the thing to work, and do what it should do. She sure doesn’t even think of moving away from a Mac or her iPhone, for that very reason: it works, and it allows her to do what she wants to, easily so.
So indeed here: 100% retention rate – and this goes for many of my Mac/iPhone converted friends as well…
Actually I had the iPhone, iPhone 3G and 3GS. I’ve had my fair share of exchanges. From dust under the display to light leaks to the LCD just crapping out completely.
My friends also have had several issues with iPhones. Now I have an Android. It’s less buggy and it just works.
Hopefully Apple will get it right with the 4th version!
AAPL closes over $240!
Tony, I think you issues are not the norm. My wife and I have had 3 iPhones that have never had an issue. Several co-workers have also had iPhones without issue. However, to say that Android phones are not as buggy as iPhones shows the real truth here. That simply is not true. A co-worker with a Droid has nothing but problems and can’t even use the on-screen keyboard, because it only works sometimes. My parents have a Droid and and Eros, and have issues as well.
um correct! Me fone wants!
Android is less buggy? Yea sure on what planet? Android is a mess many phones all running different versions of software some can run some apps some can only run others and when you have an issue where you going to go? Google has well been documented as having horrible customer service on the androids as they are not a hardware company.
Running a wholesale company selling mobile phones I will tell you #1 seller is the iPhone 2 is sim free blackberry units and then 3 is the cheap phones usually reserved for the prepaid market.
I waited till this year to get an iPhone because I did not need it and I was not paying AT&T;a bunch of money for it. But now that I have it I love it I am in love with my jailbroken iPhone
“high retention rates due to the investments many users have made in App Store software,””
I don’t think I’m alone in disputing their reasoning. For eight pages of apps, I’ve spent very little. My retention have everything to do with the iPhone being an incredibly useful and well designed device. They are also wrong in saying users “believe Apple is the best smartphone manufacturer.” It’s not a belief, but a fact.
Then again, I am ready to trash my iPhone (1G) because the latest OS slows it down to where it takes two minutes to make a phone call. The calendar normally takes 1-3 min to get the page open. And don’t get me started on how slow it is to respond to typing. And then there is the web, it used to be somewhat usable on wi-fi but now, it’s faster to go to my desk and run the desktop to open most websites. It’s a piece of junk and I assume that any iPhone I buy will be junk inside of a year. LIfe is going to be a laptop and a cheap phone shortly.
@ Tony
That doesn’t make it buggy. Unlike the iPhone that has constant bugs… I rather have that then Apps to choose from… In time, Google will fix that and be superior to iPhone… 2012!
@bob: My roommate is using an original iPhone with the latest OS and a bunch of apps. No slowness or other problems on his end. Pretty incongruous with your description. Did you try a reset/reinstall?
@ Bob –
I think you have a serious problem with your phone that has nothing to do with the hardware. I also still have my first-generation iPhone and I don’t have any of your issues. In fact, my iPhone is still so speedy for me via WiFi (which I’ve got at home) that I’ve never seen a reason to update. My calendar opens in less than 3 seconds (not minutes) and I can make calls as fast as I can punch seven (or 10) virtual buttons.
I’ve noticed that when it’s downloading email in the background (yes, Virginia, the iPhone can multitask), the keyboard will freeze for a second or two, but never longer than that.
And I agree with m159 — my investment in apps is certainly less than $20, maybe even less than $10, but until I can find a better phone out there (I’ve looked, there’s nothing even close), I’m a happy iPhone user.
I hope Um is betting his job on his predictions!
“Once you go iPhone, you’ll never disown.”
Unless you’re Leo Laporte(who’m I like) or that tool Jason Calacanis(They claim they like and use the Google HEMROID )–then, your logic is somewhat akin to inhaling oxygen via a canister and a facemask rather than simply inhaling–and then pretending you use the facemask when no one’s looking.
@Tony,
The numbers don’t lie: Your personal experiences aside, according to credible industry surveys, Apple seems to be leading the industry – both in terms of hardware quality, and in terms of their customer service in the event that an issue does arise.
But, if you want to talk about anecdotal experience, then fine. Between friends and family, I probably know at least 20 or more people with iPhones. I had a first-gen iPhone for two years, and I’ve had a 3Gs ever since. Out of all those phones, and over nearly 3 years, I think there has been one – or maybe two – exchanges. Both my and my wife’s original iPhone still work flawlessly, including the battery.
@ Bob –
You definitely have a problem. My wife’s and my original 1G iPhones both work perfectly with the latest iPhone OS. It’s certainly slower than my 3Gs (duh), but it’s mostly graphic “snappiness” and not the actual operation of the phone itself.
In NO WAY does it take my wife any longer for her to make a call on her old phone than it does on my 3Gs. I think it’s time to do a restore! If that doesn’t fix it, then get it repaired or replaced.
Tony, you must have learned ‘Obama Speak’. It means something different to the actual words.