“Normal people don’t like today’s computers. Most loathe them because they can’t fully understand their absurd complexity and arcane conventions,” Jesus Diaz writes for Gizmodo. “That’s why the iPad will kill today’s computers, just like the latter killed computers running with punchcards and command lines.”
“Of course, the iPad—the actual product that millions will buy in the coming months—won’t replace all computers. The entire world is not going to run just on tablets, just like the world doesn’t run only on smartphones and personal computers now,” Diaz writes. “But Steve Jobs’ Next Big Thing is the first computer that requires no training whatsoever, one that is truly accessible and useful for everyone. Just like the iPhone changed the idea of what a phone should be without anyone truly realizing it, Apple’s new computer will completely and permanently change our idea of what a computer is and how it should behave.”
Diaz writes, “The perception change will be so deep that it will kill Mac OS X, Windows and Linux as we know them today. At one point during this decade, you will no longer have a billion folders and file icons floating in a virtual desktop. There will be no more baffling setup screens. No more shortcuts to work around limitations and old conventions. These frustrating barriers—built during decades of evolution—are what make normal people hate computers. These barriers have now been obliterated, first by the iPhone and now by the iPad. Everyone will be using computers similar to the iPad. Not in terms of hardware, form factor, and specs. But on its philosophy.”
Much more in the full article – recommended – here.
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How about a 27 inch iPad for desktop use? I love it.
Simple. Genius.
“….it will kill Mac OS X, Windows and Linux as we know them today….”
Hmmm, maybe. Perhaps it’s familiarity, or conservatism, but I don’t find the desktop and folder paradigm particularly confusing. For the heavyweight computer use most of us do in an office environment, I see the classic OS arrangements lasting for rather longer than a decade.
@TomL
I think HP makes something you’d find attractive.
I do not think the iPad will kill OS X, I think it will expand its use market share. Some people may choose the iPad user interface over the desktop interface. But until technology reaches a point where the iPad is as powerful as a Mac Tower, which will be a long time, there is a place for both. Apple will thrive in any case.
It’s not Amazon that will be feeling the heat- it’s makers and marketers of NetBooks. Do you really think that someone who is’t a reader now will become one just because it’s on an iPad? I don’t.
The iPad is the NetBook killer. I’ll keep my 2 Kindles and appson my Macs and iPhone- Thank You very much.
Amazon sells Kindles at breakeven to a small loss & makes it’s money on the e-books, mags & subscribed blogs. BTW- the 3G wireless is free on the Kindle. With the international version it also works outside the US- something your AT&T;prepaid will not do.
I want to believe, but the iPad will at least need to be able to print on a wifi network. According to the hands-on reviews, it can’t. Oh, and third party app work-arounds don’t cut it. Hopefully this, along with multi-tasking for third party apps, will be enabled this summer as part of iPhone OS 4.0.
Go Apple!
As someone in the publishing industry, it’s pretty simple to me.
I will create content with my Macs, and I will consume it with an iPad. They not only complement one another, one can’t really exist without the other.
What I do believe to be true is that the there will be many fewer desktops and even notebook computers needed on a per capita basis. That’s the paradigm shift, not that the classic OS (whatever flavor you love or tolerate) is going to be replaced anytime soon, if ever.
@ TomL
when osx becomes touch optimised the 27″ imac will do nicely
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />…if ever puts both platforms together in a frontrow/expose setup. doubt it though…
When we were young our moms said. “Don’t touch” NOW we’re told, ‘Touch all you want.” It’s very natural. That’s one of the iPad’s successes.
@Netbooks. Not the Kindle
“BTW- the 3G wireless is free on the Kindle. With the international version it also works outside the US- something your AT&T;prepaid will not do.”
Kindle 3G wireless is free for what? Downloading ebooks? Can you surf with it and do email and make VOIP calls? Is there GPS for navigation?
Outside the US isn’t an issue. There are lots of cheap pay-as-you-go data packages available all over, especially here in Europe. If they don’t do miniSIM yet, you can cut a regular SIM down with a pair of scissors and a template off the web.
The reviewers who have gotten their hands on one already say the screen is very nice for extended reading. Someone considering a ebook reader or a netbook would be very wise to consider an iPad. But there is no way an ebook reader or netbook will do, once someone is informed about the iPad.
Best ipad accessory that I have seen yet. I just wonder why Apple didn’t make this instead of their boring carrying case.
Jesus Diaz NAILED it!
I have to agree whole heartedly.
The most astute observation I have seen in a long time.
For those who want this interface to translate to a pure desktop experience I have two words for you:
Gorilla arm.
The article above mentioned that folders won’t be needed. I have wondered about how the iPad will handle lots of files created or accessed by a user. While an iPhone/iPod touch user might access a more limited set of user files, the iPad might attract users to want to access, use and create many more by comparison.
With OS-X, we are used to creating some sort of directory or file hierarchy in which we store countless numbers of files and folders. While many owners of the iPad might want to avoid that, and use it primarily for reading books, listening to music, dashing off or reading email, surfing the Web or using individual apps, my hunch is that there will be at least some people who will want to adapt their use in a manner similar to that of a Mac.
This makes me wonder: is the goal of Apple for us to store files locally on the iPad? Or, does Apple have in mind getting iPad owners to become MobileMe customers, and use its cloud-based storage capabilities to basically turn MobileMe into a large hard drive? Could this be why Apple is building a massive data center in North Carolina?
If any reader has more insight about how iPad users will store and organize their files, please do share. I’m sure this is a point that has been extensively discussed and researched by Apple; I simply don’t know the details. Thanks in advance for your help!
I know what he’s saying about the “concept” of the touch-controlled iPad eventually displacing many (if the not the majority) of computers with keyboards and mouse-equivalents.
However, considering you need one of those archaic computers with Mac OS X or Windows running iTunes to even use an iPad, this story is a bit pre-mature.
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />
The iPad like the iPod touch and iPhone are gateway drugs (computers), meaning it will just be the start of a long happy path to a mac!
I meant the iPad will be a short happy path to a mac, as the iPod Touch, and iPhone was for me!
To paraphrase Ballmer T. Clown:
“$500?!?, $500?!? .. Without a keyboard?!?
I like our strategy, I like it a lot..”
May he stay healthy and in the job for many more years.
LOL @ the Microsoft fanboys over at Gizmodo who are crucifying Jesus for thinking the iPad is a game changer.
What they do not realize is that he is referring to the upcoming “tablet revolution” not just the iPad.
But they hate Apple so much that they cannot give the article a smidgeon of foresight.
Obama is such a clueless asshat.
Oh, love the iPad
At least Diaz was cautious about his radical prediction! He didn’t suggest the iPad itself would topple the current paradigm, he said it was the first of many that would do so. And he didn’t say it would happen tomorrow, just “soonish”.
What do you think of an input device based on an iPad … like a keyboard AND mouse … that you can use remotely (a la iPad) or as a mere wireless add-on to your “desktop”?
From what I can see, so far it’s not meant to replace anything- it’s a totally different category that fulfills needs in a different way, one that we didn’t realize we needed or could be so useful. As an Apple product- it’s another “computer for the rest of us.” The biggest criticism is that it’s a big iPod Touch. Simplistic- but even if true- so what? In this case- it’s also More than an iPod Touch!
(Oh, God, I dread the thought of a Zune tablet..)
He nailed it.
Thank you, “x“, for interrupting an intelligent, on-topic, non-rancorous discussion with an idiotic, off-topic, rancorous comment. We love you, too. Now, time for your meds and a nap.
correction, “will expand its market share.”
OK, so it doesn’t do everything that everyone wants or needs right now. But everyone should realize that as the platform matures, more and more abilities will be added to the interface in a platform specific way. We’ll be doing everything on it that a we can do on a laptop, but we’ll be doing it the way iPad OS interface does it.
@DLMeyer
I can use my iPod touch to control my Mac TODAY.
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />
And tomorrow, do the same with my iPad!
Of course, I can also use my Apple Bluetooth keyboard and Kensington Bluetooth trackball mouse to do the same.
I guess maybe what you mean is accessing media collections with my iPad that are stored on my Mac? If so, i’m with you there, especially given the pitiful amount of storage available in the iPad
What I REALLY want is a decent, pro-level (even semi-pro) photo cataloging app that I can use that is NOT iPhoto… that I can use over my network either to stream to my iPad or HDTV.
Simple: some of the iPad programming concepts will migrate into OSX.
Why does everybody want to overstate and overanalyze things?
Real world average PC procedure: 1. Turn it on or wake it. 2. Log in. 3. Go get a cup of coffee while system runs through its checks and virus scans and network settings. (Step 1 can take a while depending on your monitor; step 2 and 3 may be exchangeable depending on your network). Wait for step 3 to complete before most software can respond normally.
To shut down, reverse the steps and give it at least 3 minutes.
IPhone or iPad procedure: 1. Pick it up. 2. Slide it open. 3. Do what you need right away.
@RL: Old. No longer funny or clever.
This article is spot on, except the iPad isn’t a computer – it’s the first true digital appliance. Like other consumer appliances, it just works and requires no training.
Was having lunch with a (PC using) friend today who couldn’t believe I thought the iPad was a great new invention in personal computing. His argument was, “I need to have tons of files and the ability to dig around for them and open them with whatever program I want. I don’t want to be controlled in the way I use the programs–and I want multitasking.”
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />
This same guy LOVES his iPod Touch (and will get an iPhone when his contract is up), and just a few days earlier I spent 45 minutes waiting for him to find a file on his Windows 7 machine, and the failure of a search engine couldn’t manage to locate the file he was looking for.
I wanted to whack this guy on the head and tell him that for 95% of the population (probably himself included) the iPad will be a far superior experience to anything he uses today, but I figure he’ll understand in time. Meanwhile, I told him we could trek to an Apple store and play with it after it hits the shelves. Hopefully that’ll get the mental ball rolling for him
Both MS and now Apple appear to be wanting to go back to the very system they came to life to oppose; centralized, mainframe computing which they’ve relabeled with a fluffy name “cloud computing” to distract people from what it actually is. It was/is a monolithic system where everything is on the mainframe server, and users access it over a network from dumb/smart terminals. They do not have their files at their location but must “request” access from the server which is controlled by server admins who think of themselves as gods.
Your access can be… denied. Or the network can be slow making it hard to do the work you need to do.
Apple’s famous 1984 commercial showed how Apple was going to “liberate” people from this tyranny with the Macintosh. The whole “personal” computer revolution was about putting control in the hands of the user instead of the sys admins. The iPad and Mobile Me appear to be a new variant on an old theme.
Now that they’re huge and dominate, these personal computer companies want to bring back that old monster only they’ll be the ones in control this time so I guess it’s not bad now?
Just a thought…
(and the MDN word is… thought)
Mac OSX will not “kill Mac OS X”.
Mac OSX has evolved and will evolve.
Just what did the writer think runs iPads? Mac OSX of course.
Dent someone once say we move towards the world as depicted in star trek. Communicator-cell phone.
I don’t see them using keyboards. I’d post the whole list but you get my drift
iPad won’t destroy Linux because most of Supercomputers and Servers run on it.
@Ken1w
The need for an outboard computer to make an iPad operational will kill it’s potential use as a laptop replacement in the education and enterprise environments. I am hopeful that a program like ‘The iPhone Configuration Utility” will be made available for the iPad ASAP
This article is exactly my “fear” of what is going to happen with Apple within 5 years. Basically there will be consumer lineup of iphone OS – app store based consumer devices for the content consumers and then maybe the Mac Pro and MacBook Pro for the few content creators. Goodbye iMac and Mac Mini. Then how will I build my Mac Based HTPC system – really love my Mac Mini serving up my Apple TVs. Definitely not the job for an iPad as it is now.
MDN word “wrong” as in I hope I am wrong.
I am pretty sure Steve has already a roadway mapped for OSX to evolve along this path.
Remember, he plans where the puck will be.
Jesus D. Is a loon. Oh yeah, I’m sure all corporations are going to throw our there servers and workstations and run everything on ipads. What a fruitcake.
x can’t help himself. His rectum leaks occasionally because of poor sphincter control.
@Edward,
You’re reading far too much into the iPad. There’s no reason to think Apple wants to get rid of local file storage. For example, the iDisk functionality in MobileMe has a very nice auto-sync function that allows you to treat it as a set of folders in your Finder that are available both locally and in the cloud. That means you get the best of both worlds! You also get the “Public” folder functionality that enables you to easily share files with others. Of course, all of this also syncs very smoothly with all iPhone OS devices through a free app. What’s not to like???
Hmmm…maybe a little bit of hyperbole, but what the heck.
My personal take is that iPad extends the idea of a action-oriented computing platform (as originally envisaged in Newton) as opposed to conventional computing which is file and document-oriented.
That’s fine: for the most part, when we’re on the move, we doing things and when we’re sitting at our desks, we’re analysing the things we did when we were moving and trying to work out what we did, what we could do better and what we’ll do next time around.
iPad and Mac (or, if you absolutely must, Windows) can co-exist and deliver sensible solutions for professionals in a variety of markets. What will happen, however, is that we’ll see a massive proliferation of client applications developed for iPhone OS that will be only a hop, skip and a jump from being full-blown Mac applications.
The inevitable result of that process is that the advantage that Windows has always enjoyed (developers, developers, developers, etc. ad nauseum) will be eroded and with it that platform’s ill-deserved grip on the computing market.
Here in the UK, Apple has just won a major corporate account in TalkTalk which is a major competitor to BT: with technologies like iPad and iPhone OS, that win – alongside publishers in Germany and auto prep outfits in the US – won’t be the last.
@Ankh In the full article he says there will always be a place for traditional computers and servers, but most end users won’t need them.
Maybe home users but not corporate users.
Well, Mr. Diaz… Whatever. I’m still waiting for my flying car.
It is hindsight, not foresight, that is twenty-twenty, so just keep making those predictions.
I think that what he really means is that the iPad will kill todays GUI. It would be tough for the iPad to kill OSX, since it is OSX, but with a different GUI.
I do see Apple moving to this type of GUI on the desktop. Ever since aTV, TimeMachine and the CoverFlow stuff in iTunes I have thought that.
“I will create content with my Macs, and I will consume it with an iPad. They not only complement one another, one can’t really exist without the other.”
Actually, one has existed for ages without the other.
as a few note above, you still need a Mac/PC to setup and administer your iPhone/iPad. they are not true stand-alone products. they depend on an old school computer, and that means there still needs to be one person who knows how to make that work too.
but … there will be fewer around. especially laptops of all kinds. only “power users” will need those anymore.
and right now, a family might have several computers, as older ones get ‘handed down’ to various family members when the main computer guy/gal gets a new one. those will dwindle in number as well, replaced by Pads.
so Diaz is on the right track. this will take 5-10 years tho to work its way through the market.
To: The King of Comedy and Omniscient One of All Things Mac (aka cogitoergomac )
Bite Me! It was new to me and will still be funny years from now when my grandkids read this post. It is timeless funny. I know you think you know funny, but trust me you know nothing about funny.
You’re right that ‘the cloud’ is just a fancy new name for terminal computing, which Microsoft would love to return to(and the public rejected decades ago. It isn’t coming back no matter how much certain dinsosauric tech corporations really, really want it to).
But I have no idea why the hell you think Apple wants to go back to terminals. They’ve always presented remote storage as a compliment to local storage, not a replacement for it.
When did their attitude suddenly do a 180?
I must’ve missed it.
You are aware even the lowest tier iPad comes with a storage drive…?
I don’t know. As a developer, I really don’t like the idea of Apple taking control of my business, and taking 30% of the profits. We like to talk to our customer in person. It will raise our prices not lower them.
I think the whole iPhone and iPad is going in the wrong direction as far as controlling software. Apple has to approve of everything that goes on the unit? That is not freedom as I see it. On NetBooks, you can run any software you want.
I would like to see a iPad that is more powerful than the ones people are running to grab, and one that runs Mac OS X.
I think the unit is cool, but hardly a laptop or desktop killer in its present form.
Curious George
“This makes me wonder: is the goal of Apple for us to store files locally on the iPad? Or, does Apple have in mind getting iPad owners to become MobileMe customers, and use its cloud-based storage capabilities to basically turn MobileMe into a large hard drive? Could this be why Apple is building a massive data center in North Carolina?”
That is what I think Apple has planned. A real move to cloud computing at the new NC data center. As soon as they are able I expect a big announcement by Apple about MobileMe with more storage and greater capability. The iPad will help to move people to the cloud. Another paradigm change.
As Jesus Diaz says “hang on to your underpants”!
“Everyone will be using computers similar to the iPad. Not in terms of hardware, form factor, and specs. But on its philosophy.”
Just for the sake of the music…
@Knightlite
“I don’t know. As a developer, I really don’t like the idea of Apple taking control of my business, and taking 30% of the profits. We like to talk to our customer in person. It will raise our prices not lower them.
I think the whole iPhone and iPad is going in the wrong direction as far as controlling software. Apple has to approve of everything that goes on the unit? That is not freedom as I see it. On NetBooks, you can run any software you want.”
If you think developing apps for netbooks is a good opportunity go for it.
Apple isn’t taking control. It is a business deal. You don’t have to develop for iPhone OS.
You would be lucky to sell your apps and make 70% gross on your own. I think you may be somewhat unrealistic.
Apple probably gives you much more exposure to the market than you could do on your on.
Nothing stops you from setting up a good website and marketing your app. You are also free to let app users know you want to interact with them.
As a consumer I like Apple’s set up. I wish their was a central location for Mac OS software.
“Normal people” Please define normal, most so called normal people I know are brain dead. Perhaps Mr. Diaz should refer to the iPad as the computer for retards.
Apple has plans so you will not have to be iMac, MB or MBP dependent for your iPad. Just hold on for the ride.
Though I love the things Apple does with computer technology, I am certainly not giving up my Mac and some sort of iPad thingy. Now don’t get me wrong, I think the iPad would be a useful device, but I’m not throwing my Macs away to make an iPad (or anything else like it) to take its place. I am also not betting my computing future on the cloud. I prefer not to pay for software as a service. I’ll go Amiga, Linux or Haiku before that!
Only concern i have is Time’s poll isn’t showing a lot of people wanting to buy one of these. Does anyone know what the Time readership base is? Are they indicative of the average person?
I think that if they remove the keyboard, flip the lid and keep it thin, the AirTouch or MacTouchAir could be the next version of touch we see. I believe that just as they have customized ipad from the iphone or vice versa, they are working to customize Snow Leopard to have a full touch version and that it is a much LARGER task and leap for the average consumer to accept touch computing…why not slowly move 70 million users of the OS transition to something that they already know. Apple is wise to only release a product when it is absolutely ready for PRIME TIME. And by PRIME TIME I mean look at how they have slowly built the anticipation for the product and bam on launch week they are getting more free publicity than any company on the planet. Now they will unleash a flurry of products around the ipad and then milk this cow until Christmas. January 2011 Air Touch featuring OS X …. Touch! Running an 8 core A12 with 8 gig ram and 1tb harddrive. Starting and 1299$ for 4gb ram 500gb hd, usb, mini DV out….
I think the iPad is cool– limitations but I better understand the use now.
A guy at work who has never owned an Apple product and is a hardcore PC and BlackBerry user pre-ordered one a while back. As a frequent traveler he was considering Kindle pre-iPad announcement… but said the iPad was obvious choice.
Another PC user said his family was getting one instead of a nice digital picture frame for home.
It’s not going to kill my Cube!
Strapped and ready. BRING IT!!!!!
most people don’t like computers today? excuse me. what kind of judgement you just made. it’s maybe your case. computer has been classified by purpose. what kind of work you have…. it depends on. there are a lot of people who own more than two PC or macs. laptop or desktop is still way powerful. ipad is just lame product of ipod touch version. it’s only slightly bigger. it is impossible to kill all computers if you are not moron or retarded. ipad can’t be replace for computer anyway or forever. you have no idea. I guess that you are very basic user for computer. that’s why ipad looks more promise, huh? ipad is wasting money if you have already laptop or netbook. look, even netbook is much cheaper, more powerful. because ipad looks beautiful device, it doesn’t mean that ipad can change all. no way. it will be just like Apple TV. for a long term, sale won’t be much more than Apple thinks. actually, like I said, if you have laptops, ipad is very pointless.
The invention of the iPad is sure to change the way computers are deisgned in the future. As you mention many of the older generation just don’t get computers and cannot function them without IT Support/ A simple system like this will go to further making computers more accessible.